Vermont's First Winter Forecast Of The Season; But Huge Questions On How Much

Time for the snowfall forecast maps again! This is the
National Weather Service's initial forecast for snow
accumulations in Vermont through early Friday
afternoon. Definitely expect adjustments, up or 
down, in this forecast as the storm unfolds. 

 It's going to snow in Vermont tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

How much snow depends on elevation and the track of the storm, as always. And, as is usual with Vermont winter weather, expect surprises. 

This certainly won't be the biggest snowstorm ever. But some areas of Vermont could easily see a few to several inches of snow out of this. 

The fact that it's the first one of the season, and people aren't used to it,  could spell trouble for people on the roads. There's even a risk of scattered power outages.

So let's get into it.

TODAY

The proverbial calm before the storm. We actually hd some sunshine in parts of Vermont this morning. It'll tend to get cloudier as we go through the day. It'll also be cooler than recent days, with highs in the 40s. Light north breezes will make it feel even a little cooler. 

THURSDAY

This is where things obviously start to get interesting. The situation could easily change, but here''s how the National Weather Service currently thinks this all will unfold: 

At the moment, the storm is expected to move from Ohio or West Virginia very early tomorrow morning to southern New England late Thursday night. 

That's normally a perfect path for a snowfall in Vermont. But unlike many situations, there's not much cold air lurking to our north. Which means it looks like Thursday bring  a cold, rainy day to the valleys and snow in the mountains. 

At night, the snow level should get  to -  or at least close to  - valley floors.  

By Friday morning, accumulations will be all over the place. Southern and central Vermont mountains could pick up as much as six inches. Mid-elevations maybe two to four inches. Valleys might have just a slushy dusting to two inches of accumulation 

Precipitation looks like it will be heavier in southern and central Vermont. Northern Vermont is expected to have lighter precipitation, so perhaps not much accumulation. 

Wildcards

The heavier precipitation might go further north than expected, or perhaps not as far north as forecast. Heavier precipitation cools the atmosphere. So when temperatures are marginal, ,rain could change to snow when the precipitation comes down harder. 

That could increase snow accumulation if the atmosphere holds more moisture than expected. 

The other wildcard is temperatures Thursday night. If it's a degree or so cooler than forecast, then valleys receive more snow. A degree or two warmer, it'll be mostly rain. 

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions across Vermont during this. Some places will just have wet roads. Other roads will become slippery and snow-covered pretty fast. Wet snow is more slippery than fluffy snow under tires, which  means driving could be especially tricky. 

That heavy, wet snow could snap some trees and power lines. 

As I mentioned above. Expect surprises. Snowfall could be heavier or lighter than forecast. 

One piece of good news is expected rain and melted snow are forecast to amount to a half inch to an inch in southern and central Vermont. We need the moisture so this is good. 

North of Route 2, there's a lot of questions about how much precipitation they'll get. Early guesses are a quarter inch. But remember the wildcard - it could be much less or much more. 

As of this morning, there were no winter weather advisories in Vermont. But I'm sure that will be updated later today. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Our storm will be headed slowly through the southeastern Canada, probably near Nova Scotia Saturday and south of Newfoundland by early Sunday. .

That sets up a wet, cold northerly flow of air. So, it'll be snow showers at night, changing to a cold rain showers in the valleys, more snow showers in the mountains. Valleys will have little or no snow additional snow accumulation. The northern Green Mountains could pick up a few more inches of snow. 

Most ski resorts open around Thanksgiving. Killington usually opens early, but it's not open yet. This weather might get the season started. 

NEXT WEEK:

Remember those big fat high pressure systems we kept seeing in October? With all those sunny days?

We might get a break from the November gloom as another big, fat high pressure system next week. This could mean that winter isn't actually starting with tomorrow's snowstorm. With luck, we'll have a spell of partly sunny, mild weather during the middle of next week. 

It'll be a temporary reprieve, winter is inevitable. We're just getting our first taste of it tomorrow and Friday.