Wednesday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Still Mostly Mountains And South

National Weather Service snow forecast, updated late
this afternoon. Most of us will receive little snow,
but more is expected in the central and 
southern Green Mountains. 

 Our first snowy storm of the season starts tomorrow and as of Wednesday evening, we still have sone questions about how the storm will play out tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington said in their forecast discussion this afternoon:

"Where the models continue to struggle are placement of the surface circulation, extent of northward moisture transport QPF (precipitation) amounts and the amount of cold air in place across the region."

In other words, the the models are struggling with everything, 

The latest models have cut back on the amount of precipitation, especially north. Though it's still not too late for things to flip flop back northward. 

For moar of us, it'll be a cold rainy day. A few places might see some wet snow flakes in the morning, then the rain. After that, snow level will gradually fall until it's at least down to 1,000 feet by evening.

Far northern Vermont might see only sprinkles and flurries, depending on how far north the main precipitation reaches, 

Since precipitation will be heavier south, a winter weather advisory is up for the central and southern Green Mountains. Those areas should receive two to five inches of snow, mostly snow 1,200 feet in elevation 

The storm will be starting to head off to the northeast in the evening. Northwest winds will change rain to snow even in the valleys. But not much snow will accumulate. Still, even if there's a dusting of snow, we might wake up Friday morning with some slick spots in the valleys 

Overall, if current forecasts are accurate. This will be the typical rain/snow November slop we see most years. Enough to screw things up in some areas, especially since we're not used to driving in winter weather quire yet. 

With all this in mind, though, see above.We have plenty of opportunity for surprises with the system.