Severe Storms Will Be Scattered Around Vermont This Afternoon

 Forecasters are still calling for scattered severe thunderstorms across Vermont this afternoon and early evening, but they will really be hit and miss. 

Severe thunderstorms are a threat today in big portions
of the nation, especially in areas shaded in yellow,
orange and red. As you can see, we here in Vermont
are in that risk zone. 

Many, but not all the ingredients are there to create the severe storm potential, so it will be interesting to see how many develop. 

I'm almost 100% sure there will be some storms here and there with damaging winds and possibly hail, but how widespread those storms will be is an open question.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes this morning in their forecast discussion, there are some mixed signals on this potential burst of strong thunderstorms.  

By early afternoon, there will be plenty of very warm, humid air in place, which is the needed fuel for the storms. Upper level winds are zipping along fast enough to be brought to the surface by any intense storms to bring damaging winds to the surface.

As noted yesterday, a little line of a disturbance called a pre-frontal trough is forecast to move through Vermont this afternoon, which would be the focus of most of the rough weather. You need a convergence, which is basically wind flow squeezing together to help create updrafts, to produce the necessary lift to create powerful, towering thunderstorms. 

The NWS says the convergence along this pre-frontal trough appears like it might be meh.   If that's the case, it could be hard to get a lot of severe storms going, but you'd still get some.  After all, there will be some convergence with this disturbance. 

Also, you'll want temperatures to fall pretty fast the higher in elevation you go to help set up those violent updrafts that produce severe storms.  That temperature profile, called lapse rate, is decent, but not spectacular today, so that helps make the intensity of today's potential weather difficult to assess as of early this morning. 

This forecast isn't cast in stone by the way. This convergence and temperature profile we should have over Vermont by this afternoon might well prove to be more than enough to power a fair number of intense thunderstorms.  We just have to wait to see how this plays out this afternoon.

Though the strongest thunderstorms today could occur anywhere in the state, best early guesses are the best chances might be south of roughly a Burlington to St. Johnsbury line. 

There is a bit of spin in the atmosphere as well, so there's still a slight chance that some storms could become supercells.  Those are storms that have a rotating and persistent updraft. They tend to be more severe than other strong storms.

Supercells sometimes - but not always - produce tornadoes.  There's a very very low chance of a brief spin up today in or near Vermont, but there's no guarantee on that. 

So, the bottom line: Keep an eye to the sky, and if you see dark clouds approaching, head inside.  Lightning from even a non-severe storm is dangerous, after all. 

Also, have a weather radio or some other reliable way today of receiving severe thunderstorm warnings. If you do get such a warning, get yourself into a really sturdy building and keep away from the windows until the storms pass.

In addition, storm reports help the National Weather Service improve on future forecasts.  If you see storm damage today, give the National Weather Service in South Burlington a heads up to what you see, but only when it is safe to do so.

A few spots might get a decent heavy, needed downpour out of today's expected storms, but overall, rainfall will be lackluster. Which is too bad. We need an area-wide soaker and we won't be getting that this trip. 

Us Vermonters are not the only ones under the gun for potential severe storms today.  Much of the Northeast is under the same conditions we are, so there will be widespread, if scattered reports of some storm damage today from Virginia to Maine. 

There's an even greater risk of damaging storms and potential tornadoes today out in Nebraska and Kansas.  I'm sure storm chasers are converging there this morning as there could be several tornadoes later today in that neck of the woods.