Severe Storm Threat Tomorrow in Vermont/Northeast

Areas of the nation shaded in yellow are under a risk
of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The vast areas '
under the risk include Vermont, where damaging
straight line winds are the biggest threat.

Vermont,and many surrounding areas tomorrow are under the first real severe thunderstorm threat since March.  

A squirt of very warm, humid air and an approaching cold front will be the combination that could touch off the storms here, and in much of the rest of New England, New York, Pennsylvania and parts of Ohio.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area in its slight risk category for severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. That's level two of a five point risk scale. 

 Slight risk generally means there would be scattered reports of damaging wind or hail from the storms, with the possibility one or two intense storms thrown in there. 

As is almost always the case when our region is under any kind of storm threat, damaging straight line winds are the principal threat from Wednesday's potential storms. 

However, somewhat similar to back in March, when a tornado did touch down in Middlebury, there is an ever so slight chance that one or two storms could produce a brief twister.  I want to emphasis that a repeat of March is NOT likely, and chances of any kind of tornado anywhere in or near Vermont are very,  very  low. 

Still, as it stands now, there might be just enough spin the atmosphere to create a brief tornado in eastern New York and western New England,  Vermont included.  That would be true if any intense storms form ahead of a main line of storms that will be coming through ahead of a cold front.

Large, damaging hail could also come with the worst storms on Wednesday, but again, the biggest threat is straight-line winds. 

The storm forecast will surely be adjusted between now and tomorrow, so the areas forecast to be under threat from any kind of severe weather will shift from current forecasts. I'll of course have an update on this situation tomorrow morning. 

As the forecast stands now, you'll notice it getting warmer and by afternoon, somewhat more humid today as southwest winds begin to pump that summery air our way. 

It'll continue to get rather stuffy tonight. By tomorrow, humid air will be in place. The key to whether and how many severe storms we get Wednesday depends upon sunshine. If it's relatively sunny in the morning and early afternoon, that'll pump temperatures well into the 80s. 

Straight line winds from a severe thunderstorm caused this
damage in St. Albans, Vermont on July 30, 2019.
There could be instances of similar damage in Vermont
tomorrow if current forecasts hold. 

That warmth will help destabilize the atmosphere and prime it for severe storms. 

Very often when there's a severe weather threat around here,  a subtle line of extra instability, known as a pre-frontal trough, will come in from the west ahead of a cold front.  

That is expected to happen sometime tomorrow afternoon, and that will be the focus for most of the severe storms, if they occur. 

If current forecast holds, the severe storm threat will last into the evening, especially in eastern Vermont, which would be the last area in the Green Mountain State to see that line of boisterous storms. 

More storms will probably bubble up along the main cold front early tomorrow night, but few, if any will be severe. 

Under this slight risk, most of us won't see severe, damaging storms. But many of us will experience some gusty winds and lightning, so you'll want to be able to get quickly indoors if you see dark clouds approaching. 

Unfortunately, these storms don't look like big rainmakers. The more intense storms will have heavy downpours, but they won't last long.  Some areas that manage to avoid most of the storms will get almost no rain.

Too bad, we really need it. 

It'll get unseasonably cold behind this front. It means business.  It's possible there will be scattered areas of frost again Thursday night, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

A storm coming by to our south will largely miss us Friday.  It will probably throw some clouds our way, but little or no rain. Friday's clouds, combined with cold north winds, will prevent many parts of Vermont from even getting out of the 50s for highs on Friday. 

Friday's system will be out in the Great Plains Wednesday, creating a severe weather risk greater than our own in and around Nebraska.  It'll produce more severe weather and some tornadoes in an area centered around Missouri on Thursday. By the time this storm gets to the East Coast, it could produce another round of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast, but nothing anywhere near us. 

That's awfully chilly for this time of year but by no means totally out of whack for this time of year

The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty dry and sunny, with a slow warming trend for us here in northern New England.