The Vermont/Northeast Storms Aren't Ending: A Yucky One Thursday, And Maybe A Bigger Weekend One

Latest snowfall projections for the storm late tonight and
tomorrow morning. This one is going to feature snow
to a mix to even some rain, a schmutzy one for sure. 

 Seems like every day this month we're updating forecasts on Vermont winter storms and weather. And it looks like every day for awhile yet we're going to be doing more of the same.  

Expect weirdness and surprises, too. That seems to be the pattern, as unexpected curv
e balls keep getting thrown into the Vermont weather situation. 

That kind of happened yesterday. A nice,  normal cold front was supposed to sweep southward during the day, setting off some brief snow showers and snow squalls as the front glided through the state.

Then for some reason the front got hung up for hours in north-central Vermont, giving Burlington, for instance a surprise 2.6 inches of snow while points a dozen miles or so north and south of the city got just a dusting. 

Go figure. 

That front finally got its act together and went south later last night, so now it's cold and calm again. At least for today. 

The storms themselves keep coming reliably.  We have at least two more to go. 

 The first is a messy one tomorrow, and the second is a larger one over the weekend that will either be snow, or another round of icy, ugly schmutz. We don't know yet. But let's take tomorrow's mess first.

THURSDAY. 

Messy storms take forever to explain, so bear with me. It's a fair amount to take in.

All the computer models agree on taking a pretty strong storm on a northeasterly direction down the St. Lawrence Valley of southern Canada while a weak secondary storm tries, and initially sort of fails to get going in southern New England.  

Anyone up for grilling up some sausages and eggs and
having a nice breakfast brunch outside in this
wintry February? Nah, didn't think so.

What's in disagreement is what exactly will fall from the sky in Vermont during all this and in what quantities. 

This storm will cause a nice stripe of six to 18 inches snow totals across southern Quebec. I'd blow off any trips to Montreal tomorrow, as they're expecting a good 10 to 15 inches of snow, easily their biggest storm of the winter. 

Since the storm is mostly going to Vermont's north, we get an intrusion of warm air with this thing. Translation: A classic schmutz storm. I also hope like you like slush. Followed by lots of ice under foot when that slush eventually freezes. 

Late Tonight/Thursday Morning

The likely scenario is that snow will start overnight. Fluffy at first but then turning wetter and heavier as we get toward dawn while temperatures rise toward the freezing point. 

We'll also start to see sleet and freezing rain mix in south to north across Vermont late at night down toward Bennington, and spreading north pretty much to the Canadian border during the day. 

It'll get windy, too which will certainly add to the fun. The initial fluffy snow will blow around, making things worse on the roads. Then, there's nothing more thrilling than having 40 mph gusts in some areas slam those little ice balls of sleet into the side of your face while you're outside. 

The strongest winds in the morning will probably be along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, where we could easily see gusts to 45 mph or more. 

Snowfall with this won't befall that  much, but it will vary greatly place to place.  Southeast facing slopes of the Green Mountains will probably see a nice thump of two to five inches. Places right along the Canadian border might do pretty well and get into the four inch range, as they'll be near the edge of that big Montreal snowstorm.

Southeast winds flowing down the slopes of the western slopes Green and White mountains will limit probably limit snowfall to a dusting to two inches west of those ranges. The mountains block the moisture, and also, the winds cause compressional warming which will make those areas west of the mountains poke up above freezing before other places. 

The sleet and freezing rain mixing in Thursday morning will serve to just add more ice and complications to your morning commute, so you'll want to take extra time to get where you're going. 

Luckily, there won't be much ice, so we don't have to worry about trees and power lines caving in under the weight of ice. 

There's always a chance this storm could ultimately shift paths a little more, so don't be surprised if some areas end up with less snow, or more snow than outlined here. 

Thursday Afternoon/Night

The precipitation will taper to scattered showers of wet snowflakes, raindrops and maybe a few more ice pellets as temperatures in most valley manage to get a little above freezing. Maybe even 40 degrees in the valleys of southwest Vermont. 

Temperatures will quickly crash Thursday night, so the slush that gets manufactured in the brief afternoon thaw will freeze into hard, uneven ice. Great for walking on it you're looking to break your ankle. (And who isn't?!?)

After a lull Thursday afternoon, the winds will crank again Thursday night and Friday, this time from the west and northwest, gusting to 35 mph in spots. 

NEXT STORM

I won't go into the larger weekend storm in much detail yet. We have enough to digest with tomorrow's system. 

This bigger one is starting to trend more north and warmer, too, so it could be another snow to mix scenario, though I'm not sure yet. Best chances of freezing rain an sleet would be in southern Vermont, 

Whatever happens with the weekend storm, it will last longer and produce more precipitation of some sort than all these quick hitters we've had this month. So watch this space!