A Lack Of Siberian Arctic Ice And You

Arctic Ocean water near Siberia is not freezing like 
it's supposed to this time of year. 

 As of late October, the Arctic Ocean near Siberia wasn't yet covered in ice. 

This, according to scientists, is very odd and dangerous, another sign that climate change is messing with the Arctic. 

That area is essentially the Northern Hemisphere's air conditioner. If the air conditioner is out of whack, bad things can happen. 

Usually, the Laptev Sea, the part of the Arctic Ocean near Siberia, starts to freeze in late September as the waning autumn sun stops heating the surface. 

This year was so hot, and the heat was so unprecedented, that this section of the Arctic Ocean really warmed up - much more than usual.  With the water so warm, it takes time for the heat content to dissipate into the atmosphere amid the late autumn darkness. So the ice is late.

This can lead to a feedback loop that can ensure less and less ice. The freeze up north of Siberia is late, so chances are the ice that does form won't have time to thicken up to the extent it does most winters.  Which will make it easier to melt next spring. 

Overall, sea ice extent in the entire Arctic was the second lowest on record in September, continuing a decades long trend of declining sea ice. 

As I've mentioned before in this here blog thingy, a lack of Arctic ice might make the weather screwy down in the mid-latitudes, where most of us live.  

The lack of Arctic ice, and the overall warming trend up there, might make the jet stream wavier and more meandering than normal, causing spells of extreme weather. 

This past week, an Arctic blast of unprecedented cold dropped temperatures to as low as 30 below in the northern Rockies, the coldest on record for October.

In Oklahoma and Texas, where temperatures this time of year are normally in the pleasant upper 60s and low 70s, a crippling ice storm collapsed thousands of trees that still had green leaves on them.

It does seem absurd to blame record cold and winter storms on global warming.  And to be sure there is NO WAY I have the knowledge or expertise to conclusively tie the bizarre winter weather out west this week to climate change. 

Still, this episode of weird weather is consistent with what scientists are saying about a weirding out jet stream.  

For instance, overall, the continental United States has shown a clear upward trend in average temperatures over the past few decades at least.  But this trend gets occasionally interrupted by some pretty wild cold snaps. 

A great example of what I'm talking about has happened right here in Vermont.  Last November, we had some of the coldest weather on record for so early in the season in the Green Mountain State.  On Mother's Day weekend this year, it snowed. 

Yet, last winter was Burlington, Vermont's eight warmest winter on record and this past summer was THE hottest on record. 

Whether or not rapid Arctic warming contributes to these strange weather episodes like we've had this past week, the wildly erratic jet stream can have dangerous influences far and wide.

The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang reported a terrific example of this:  Hurricane Zeta was on approach to Louisiana Wednesday.  Cooler ocean temperatures near the coast and expected upper level winds would temper the strength of Zeta, making it barely a Category 1 storm at landfall. At least that was the expectation.

But nope:  Zeta strengthened to a high end Category 2 storm with top winds of 110 mph, definitely causing more wind and storm surge damage in Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia than expected.

What happened?  The jet stream, dipping so far south into Texas, allowed air in the upper levels of the atmosphere to spread out near Zeta.  That allowed Zeta to ventilate itself.  Hurricanes need rising air to fuel the thunderstorms that contribute to their power. 

This diverging air encouraged the thunderstorms in Hurricane Zeta, allowing the storm to strengthen and overwhelm any negative influence from cooler water or strong winds in the upper atmosphere. 

As the Washington Post reported:

"In meteorology, extremes tend to beget extremes, and Zeta's fury was yet another example. It was a hurricane paradoxically intensified by an ice storm that cut power to hundreds of thousands several hundred miles away."

If extremes lead to extremes, and climate change leads to more extremes, this is all bad news. As I said before, I don't know if the weird weather of this past week was related to climate change or to what extent if it was. 

I do suspect climate change had some role. If that's the case, expect more crazy weather weeks in our future. Ones that feature wildfires, hurricanes, ice storms, weird temperatures, and God know what else.

 Hang on to your hat!