After setting records for the fastest rate of intensification for any Atlantic tropical system, Hurricane Delta abruptly weakened somewhat on approach to the area around Cancun, Mexico.
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| Hurricane Delta centered over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The cloud bands filling up the entire Gulf of Mexico are pretty interesting. They contain showers, but not very serious weather near the U.S. coasts. That will change as Delta draws closer. |
Delta caused a lot of damage in that area, according to early reports, but it wasn't the devastating blow in could have inflicted on the tourist area.
Meanwhile, Louisiana and Mississippi are bracing for what Hurricane Delta might have in store for them.
The following stat might be most exciting for weather weenies like me, but it's really telling as to what unusually warm ocean water and light upper level winds can do.
Hurricane Delta's winds increased from 35 mph to 130 mph in just 36 hours. According to hurricane experts Sam Lillo and Tomer Burg, that's the fastest transition from a tropical depression to Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin.
Although I can't directly attribute this to climate change, it is a testament to what warming ocean waters can do if the conditions are right.
Hurricane Delta's winds peaked at 145 mph last night before it faded to a Category 2 storm with top winds of 105 mph on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Delta will continue northward and emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico today. If it manages to reorganize after getting disrupted by its short trek over land, this hurricane has the potential to ramp up to a Category 4 storm again. (Category 4 storms have sustained winds of between 130 to 156 mph).
This has implications for what happens on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Forecasters are pretty sure Hurricane Delta will start to weaken again as it approaches the coast - likely Louisiana on Friday.
If Delta starts from a stronger position - Category 4 - it will be more intense at the coast than if the storm doesn't ramp up as much as expected today.
I guess this will be a choice between bad and really bad for the United States. Meteorologists are saying Delta will expand in size over the Gulf of Mexico. A larger hurricane tends to create larger storm surges. Those surges can live on until they smash ashore even if the parent hurricane weakens.
Nobody is quite sure where on the Louisiana coast Delta will hit, but the options are bad. If it's closer to New Orleans, that would put the city under the gun for storm surge flooding and the risk of levee failures. '
If it hits further west, New Orleans gets off relatively easy, but then areas hit hard by Hurricane Laura earlier this year get smacked again. It's kind of a no-win.
Forecasting the intensity of a hurricane is still really hard, as we saw with forecasts for this Hurricane Delta.
Best guesses are that Delta will come ashore as a Category 2, but who knows, really?
Delta, of course will weaken wicked fast after it makes landfall. It will produce heavy rains over the lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend.
It's too soon to determine if any moisture from Delta makes it far enough north to affect Vermont. We can still use the rain, for sure. Early guessing is we will get little rain from Delta, but that's not a sure bet.
At least we're getting a bit of rain today, though
STORMY VERMONT WEDNESDAY
As expected, a pretty stiff storm system is expected to cross southern Quebec today. This means wind, rain, and possibly scattered severe thunderstorms in Vermont today.
Whether you're in a thunderstorm or not, southwest winds will gust to between 30 and 45 mph. Strongest winds look like they will be on the east facing slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks.
There will be quite a few showers around today, with the most rain likely in the mountains. The Champlain Valley will get less rain because the Adirondacks will block some of the moisture blowing in from those southwest winds
A band of bands of showers and possible thunderstorms will form ahead and along the storm's cold front this afternoon. Some of storms could grab some really high speed winds up above us and bring a couple damaging gusts to the surface.
Most of us won't see that, but a few of us might, so be on the lookout for that.
Today's storms likely will have little or even no lightning, so don't rely on distant rumbles of thunder to alert you that something's coming.
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