The big weather news of the day is Hurricane Delta, which at last check was rapidly intensifying as it heads toward Cancun and then the Gulf of Mexico.
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| Visible satellite photo of dawn breaking in the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Powerful Hurricane Delta as seen in the morning sunshine in the lower right of this photo. |
This one is turning into a very powerful, major hurricane and is going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people. This includes people along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
There's actually a specific definition of a rapidly strengthening tropical system. It's one whose winds increase by 35 mph or more within 24 hours.
Hurricane Delta more than qualifies. It went from a tropical depressing with 35 mph winds early yesterday morning to 110 mph winds early this morning.
Delta is the sixth Atlantic storm this year to rapidly strengthen, so you know there's been a wicked amount of fuel for hurricanes in this extremely busy year.
There's every reason to believe Delta will strengthen more. There's very little in the way of upper level winds over the path of the storm, so its thunderstorms won't get torn apart and weaken Delta. It's over extremely warm waters, so it has plenty of fuel.
The first stop for Hurricane Delta looks like it will be right around the tourist hub of Cancun, Mexico. A couple computer models bring Delta to Category 5 by the time it gets to Cancun. But at the very least, it will be Category 3 or 4, so the resort is in for a lot of damage tomorrow.
This will be the first time Cancun has been slapped by a big hurricane since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
Land interaction with Cancun might briefly weaken Delta, but it will regroup in the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and remain a very powerful and dangerous major hurricane. Tropical Storm Gamma dissipated in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday, but left behind some extra atmospheric moisture for Delta to work with.
Then it heads north toward the United States. Early indications are it could hit Louisiana, perhaps near New Orleans Friday night or early Saturday, which is just awful.
Hurricane Delta will likely weaken some on approach to the Gulf Coast. Stronger upper level winds will start to damage the storm a bit. Delta will also have less quality fuel to run on near the coast because some early autumn cold fronts have cooled the water near the coast a bit
But don't let that expected weakening trend make you relax. The weakening, if it occurs as expected, will be too little too late. Delta will still cause destructive winds, and even scarier storm surge and flooding along parts of the Gulf Coast.
If it goes just a little to the west of New Orleans, that low-lying city would be under the gun for a devastating storm surge. Let's hope the levees hold up better than they did in Katrina back in 2005.
Delta will be the 10th tropical storm or hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. That'll be a new record for most in one season. In 1916, nine tropical systems made landfall in the U.S.
Stay tuned on this one. Just what we need, right? Another major disaster on top of everything else that's going on in this awful year of 2020.
VERMONT STORMS AND SNOW
Nothing especially destructive is heading toward Vermont, but there is a bit of interesting weather to point out.
A strengthening storm will move from about Lake Huron tomorrow morning to a spot near Montreal in the afternoon before continuing on toward the northeast.
This storm doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with, so the rain here won't be especially heavy. But where the storm lacks in water it makes up for in energy. This just might be enough to create a few late season severe storms in Vermont as the storm's cold front sweeps through Wednesday afternoon.
This won't be anything widespread, but the showers and storms will be gusty, and a few spots might manage to get some damaging gusts as the front sweeps through. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, ,the lowest in a five point scale of storm risks.
After the storm goes by, we'll get a quick shot of cold air. Lingering showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning could easily change to a few snow showers at elevations above 3,000 feet. The snow might accumulate to an inch or two at the summits,. We might get our first view of the season of snow capped Vermont peaks on Thursday.
This shot of cold air will be short lived and we'll be back up to afternoon highs in the 60s by the weekend.
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