Hurricane Delta Update; Vermont Freeze, Drought, Storms And Rain

Hurricane Delta is behaving pretty much as forecasters have thought all along as it approaches the Louisiana coastline toward evening. 

Hurricane Delta on a approach to Louisiana this morning.

That "weakening" trend that was predicted was starting to happen, but that doesn't really matter at this point. Delta will clobber Louisiana. 

The hurricane as of early this morning had top winds of 120 mph and was about 200 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. 

With upper level winds coming from the southwest, Hurricane Delta will have sort of a lopsided appearance, with the heaviest weather along and east of its center.  It won't look like that classic, spherical storm with a sharp eye right in the middle. 

Those upper level winds, and coolish waters near the coast will contribute to the storm's weakening trend today.

Weakening does not mean weak in this case.  There will be still be damaging hurricane force winds in Louisiana and destructive storm surges. 

Hurricane Delta will come ashore probably no more than 15 miles or so east of where Hurricane Laura did in late August. Laura really did a number on the city of Lake Charles, Louisiana. 

Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't be too worried about Lake Charles with the way this latest hurricane is developing.  With Hurricane Delta going by to the east of Lake Charles, winds won't be quite as bad there as they would be further east. They could gust to hurricane force there, but strongest winds would avoid Lake Charles. 

Had Delta been the only hurricane hitting the area this year, Lake Charles would suffer quite a bit of tree damage, pretty extensive power outages and a little structural damage here and there. 

However, as mentioned yesterday, Lake Charles has not had nearly enough time to recover from Hurricane Laura.  The wind will easily rip off a lot of those  thousands of blue tarps covering damaged roofs.  That will expose the interior of buildings to the hurricane's torrential rains which will cause a lot of water damage.

There's also piles of debris left over from Laura.  Much of that debris will be blown around by the wind, creating projectiles that will cause even more damage to homes and businesses.  Highways heading out of Lake Charles were jammed with traffic Friday as people wisely fled the city. 

Hurricane Delta will also hit areas relatively unscathed by Laura, causing destructive storm surges and flooding from torrential rains as far east at New Orleans and beyond.

It is very rare for hurricanes to hit basically the same spot twice in one season, but it's not unheard of. In 2004, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne came ashore right around Stuart, Florida within three weeks of each other. 

VERMONT UPDATE

Burlington, Vermont had its first real frost and freeze of the season this morning, ending the growing season there (Most of the rest of Vermont had killing frosts in mid-September.

This means the growing season in Burlington was right around average this year. The last freeze of the season in the spring was on May 9 and the first frost of the autumn was August 9.  Both dates were two days later than average, so the length of Burlington's growing season, at least was exactly as it ought to be. 

Just a little bit of drought improvement in 
Vermont this week. Orange shades are drought
Yellow is just "abnormally dry"

Temperatures will be in a bit of a yo-yo pattern for the next several days. Some days, like today, will be cool. Saturday will be warmer than normal, followed by a pretty decent cool down for Sunday. Rinse and repeat. 

These ups and downs imply that there will be some storms, or at least some cold and warm fronts around.  This further suggests rain. And we will get some.  Which is great because we need to continue picking away at the drought in Vermont. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, shows a little, tiny bit of improvement in Vermont after last week's rains. 

Nearly 30 percent of the state, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom, is still in severe drought.  That's unchanged from a week earlier. 

However, the percentage of the state in moderate drought fell from about 76 percent to 57 percent. Last week, the entire remainder of the state was abnormally dry.  That's still almost true, but a tiny sliver of southwestern Vermont is no longer considered "dry."

Rainfall so far this month has been near normal.  A cold front later tomorrow will create a band of showers and thunderstorms. That will put down some light rain, maybe a quarter of an inch, across northern Vermont especially. Every little bit helps!

There's still a chance some of Saturday's storms could turn out to be locally severe, which is a bit odd for October, but whatever. 

A wetter cold front could come through Tuesday. If all goes to plan, and that is a real if, the cold front could collect some leftover moisture from Hurricane Delta and dump a half inch to an inch of rain on us. Again, that would give us continued progress toward relieving the drought, but not entirely eliminate it. 

At least we seem to be headed in the right direction.  

Delta Looms In Louisiana, Oddly Severe New England Storms

The forecasts for Hurricane Delta is headed toward the southwestern and central Louisiana coastline.

If that sounds frightfully familiar, that's because horrible Hurricane Laura came ashore with 150 mph winds in just about the same place on August 26, less than two months ago. 

Hurricane Delta looming in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Delta won't be quite as strong as Laura, but it's expected to hit a spot that is exceptionally vulnerable, due to the battered location it's hitting.  

Aerial views of Lake Charles, Louisiana show a sea of blue tarps, as thousands of houses with roof and other damage from Laura haven't been repaired yet. 

Lake Charles probably won't see the worst effects of Delta, but winds gusting to near hurricane force are a terrible idea for this now-fragile city. Those blue tarps won't do well at all in Delta's winds and torrential rains.

Laura  had storm surges of up to 17 feet above normal sea level, causing incredible destruction.  Any efforts to repair that damage could be wiped out by Delta. 

As of early this morning, Delta was forecast to make landfall Friday only about a dozen miles east of where Laura landed. Not only will Delta trash an already devastated area, but it will extend storm surge flooding and damaging winds to relatively intact places to the east of Laura's path.

The areas that could get a damaging, life threatening storm surge extend to New Orleans and even east of there.  Hurricane Delta covers a large area. Larger hurricanes tend to have worse and more widespread storm surges than smaller ones. 

A sea of blue tarps covering roofs in this
aerial view of Lake Charles, Louisiana.
This is from Hurricane Laura damage.

Peak storm surges along and east of Delta's path are expected to be around 7 to 11 feet above normal sea levels.  

I think this is the sixth time this year Louisiana has been in a tropical storm or hurricane "cone of uncertainty." This cone is a forecast area in which an approaching storm might hit. 

As of early this morning Delta was getting better organized and stronger as expected in the southern Gulf of Mexico.  It has the rest of today to strengthen before upper level winds and cooler waters near the U.S. Gulf Coast start a weakening trend. 

That late weakening trend will be too little, too late, as I noted yesterday. As is typical in this size and strength of hurricane, the warnings include messages that note some of the hardest hit areas will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. 

Once Delta moves inland, it will weaken rapidly down to a remnant swirl, but will have enough oomph left to cause flash flooding in the lower Mississippi Valley and the risk of some tornadoes.

NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND STORMS

Parts of the Northeast had some experience Wednesday with destructive winds as well.  A powerful cold front created even more in the way of severe thunderstorms than was forecast. 

A squall line caused a lot of destruction from Lake Ontario, through central New York and New England. These straight line winds with the thunderstorms cut power to half a million people in this region. 

At least two people were killed in the storm as trees fell on a car south of Saratoga, New York and on a golfer in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. 

Winds gusted to 82 mph in Quincy, Massachusetts, 70 mph in Worcester, 68 mph in Albany, New York and 66 mph in Boston.  

This line of destruction brushed far southern Vermont. Lots of trees and wires came down in and around Bennington, for instance.   

A thunderstorm, rainbow and fall foliage combine in Vermont
from this photo posted on Twitter by the National Weather 
Service office in Burlington, Vermont

This line of storms almost qualified as a derecho, which is a band of storms that goes for at least 400 miles and has numerous reports of winds greater than 75 mph.

This squall line only went 355 miles before moving offshore on Cape Cod and there were very few instances of winds exceeding 75 mph.

 A separate cluster of strong storms dumped hail slightly larger than peas near Burlington, Vermont and took down a few trees and branches. 

A squall line as intense as this is quite rare for New England in October. 

Incredibly, some more severe storms are possible again Saturday.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont, New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and central and eastern New York in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.

Videos of the New England severe weather yesterday:

Home security camera in Auburn, Mass. gets right to the point with a shed getting clonked by a falling tree and another tree falling, with wires sparking. Lots of wind, rain and hail then continue:

Video of the storm in far southern Vermont by Mitch McCue (@Vermontsterwx)

 

Delta Dawn: Hurricane (Temporarily) Weaker This Morning; Vermont Gusts

After setting records for the fastest rate of intensification for any Atlantic tropical system, Hurricane Delta abruptly weakened somewhat on approach to the area around Cancun, Mexico.  

Hurricane Delta centered over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula
this morning. The cloud bands filling up the
entire Gulf of Mexico are pretty interesting. They contain
showers, but not very serious weather near the U.S. coasts.
That will change as Delta draws closer. 

Delta caused a lot of damage in that area, according to early reports, but it wasn't the devastating blow in could have inflicted on the tourist area. 

Meanwhile, Louisiana and Mississippi are bracing for what Hurricane Delta might have in store for them. 

The following stat might be most exciting for weather weenies like me, but it's really telling as to what unusually warm ocean water and light upper level winds can do. 

Hurricane Delta's winds increased from 35 mph to 130 mph in just 36 hours. According to hurricane experts Sam Lillo and Tomer Burg, that's the fastest transition from a tropical depression to Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. 

Although I can't directly attribute this to climate change, it is a testament to what warming ocean waters can do if the conditions are right. 

Hurricane Delta's winds peaked at 145 mph last night before it faded to a Category 2 storm with top winds of 105 mph on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. 

Delta will continue northward and emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico today.  If it manages to reorganize after getting disrupted by its short trek over land, this hurricane has the potential to ramp up to a Category 4 storm again.  (Category 4 storms have sustained winds of between 130 to 156 mph).

This has implications for what happens on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Forecasters are pretty sure Hurricane Delta will start to weaken again as it approaches the coast - likely Louisiana on Friday. 

If Delta starts from a stronger position - Category 4 - it will be more intense at the coast than if the storm doesn't ramp up as much as expected today.

I guess this will be a choice between bad and really bad for the United States. Meteorologists are saying Delta will expand in size over the Gulf of Mexico.  A larger hurricane tends to create larger storm surges.  Those surges can live on until they smash ashore even if the parent hurricane weakens. 

Nobody is quite sure where on the Louisiana coast Delta will hit, but the options are bad. If it's closer to New Orleans, that would put the city under the gun for storm surge flooding and the risk of levee failures. '

If it hits further west, New Orleans gets off relatively easy, but then areas hit hard by Hurricane Laura earlier this year get smacked again. It's kind of a no-win. 

Forecasting the intensity of a hurricane is still really hard, as we saw with forecasts for this Hurricane Delta. 

Best guesses are that Delta will come ashore as a Category 2, but who knows, really?

Delta, of course will weaken wicked fast after it makes landfall. It will produce heavy rains over the lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. 

It's too soon to determine if any moisture from Delta makes it far enough north to affect Vermont. We can still use the rain, for sure. Early guessing is we will get little rain from Delta, but that's not a sure bet. 

At least we're getting a bit of rain today, though

STORMY VERMONT WEDNESDAY

As expected, a pretty stiff storm system is expected to cross southern Quebec today. This means wind, rain, and possibly scattered severe thunderstorms in Vermont today. 

Whether you're in a thunderstorm or not, southwest winds will gust to between 30 and 45 mph.  Strongest winds look like they will be on the east facing slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks.

There will be quite a few showers around today, with the most rain likely in the mountains. The Champlain Valley will get less rain because the Adirondacks will block some of the moisture blowing in from those southwest winds 

A band of bands of showers and possible thunderstorms will form ahead and along the storm's cold front this afternoon. Some of storms could grab some really high speed winds up above us and bring a couple damaging gusts to the surface. 

Most of us won't see that, but a few of us might, so be on the lookout for that. 

Today's storms likely will have little or even no lightning, so don't rely on distant rumbles of thunder to alert you that something's coming. 

Dangerous Delta Looms; Vermont Storms And Snow?

 The big weather news of the day is Hurricane Delta, which at last check was rapidly intensifying as it heads toward Cancun and then the Gulf of Mexico. 

Visible satellite photo of dawn breaking in the 
Gulf of Mexico this morning. Powerful Hurricane Delta
as seen in the morning sunshine in the lower 
right of this photo. 

This one is turning into a very powerful, major hurricane and is going to cause a lot of problems for a lot of people. This includes people along the U.S. Gulf Coast. 

There's actually a specific definition of a rapidly strengthening tropical system. It's one whose winds increase by  35 mph or more within 24 hours. 

Hurricane Delta more than qualifies. It went from a tropical depressing with 35 mph winds early yesterday morning to 110 mph winds early this morning.  

Delta is the sixth Atlantic storm this year to rapidly strengthen, so you know there's been a wicked amount of fuel for hurricanes in this extremely busy year. 

There's every reason to believe Delta will strengthen more. There's very little in the way of upper level winds over the path of the storm, so its thunderstorms won't get torn apart and weaken Delta. It's over extremely warm waters, so it has plenty of fuel. 

The first stop for Hurricane Delta looks like it will be right around the tourist hub of Cancun, Mexico. A couple computer models bring Delta to Category 5 by the time it gets to Cancun. But at the very least, it will be Category 3 or 4, so the resort is in for a lot of damage tomorrow. 

This will be the first time  Cancun has been slapped by a big hurricane since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Land interaction with Cancun might briefly weaken Delta, but it will regroup in the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and remain a very powerful and dangerous major hurricane. Tropical Storm Gamma dissipated in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday, but left behind some extra atmospheric moisture for Delta to work with. 

Then it heads north toward the United States. Early indications are it could hit Louisiana, perhaps near New Orleans Friday night or early Saturday, which is just awful. 

Hurricane Delta will likely weaken some on approach to the Gulf Coast. Stronger upper level winds will start to damage the storm a bit.  Delta will also have less quality fuel to run on near the coast because some early autumn cold fronts have cooled the water near the coast a bit 

But don't let that expected weakening trend make you relax.  The weakening, if it occurs as expected, will be too little too late.  Delta will still cause destructive winds, and even scarier storm surge and flooding along parts of the Gulf Coast.

If it goes just a little to the west of New Orleans, that low-lying city would be under the gun for a devastating storm surge. Let's hope the levees hold up better than they did in Katrina back in 2005. 

Delta will be the 10th tropical storm or hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. That'll be a new record for most in one season.  In 1916, nine tropical systems made landfall in the U.S. 

Stay tuned on this one. Just what we need, right? Another major disaster on top of everything else that's going on in this awful year of 2020.

VERMONT STORMS AND SNOW

Nothing especially destructive is heading toward Vermont, but there is a bit of interesting weather to point out. 

A strengthening storm will move from about Lake Huron tomorrow morning to a spot near Montreal in the afternoon before continuing on toward the northeast. 

This storm doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with, so the rain here won't be especially heavy. But where the storm lacks in water it makes up for in energy.  This just might be enough to create a few late season severe storms in Vermont as the storm's cold front sweeps through Wednesday afternoon.

This won't be anything widespread, but the showers and storms will be gusty, and a few spots might manage to get some damaging gusts as the front sweeps through. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, ,the lowest in a five point scale of storm risks. 

After the storm goes by, we'll get a quick shot of cold air. Lingering showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning could easily change to a few snow showers at elevations above 3,000 feet. The snow might accumulate to an inch or two at the summits,. We might get our first view of the season of snow capped Vermont peaks on Thursday. 

This shot of cold air will be short lived and we'll be back up to afternoon highs in the 60s by the weekend.