Coral And Antarctic Sea Ice Climate Change Tipping Points Underway?

Coral bleached out from exposure to too-hot water
If this goes on for too long, the coral dies. 
Coral reefs worldwide are now suffering
from big bleaching events. 

Scientist are eyeing coral reefs and Antarctic ice more than ever lately as the two wildly different parts of nature seem to be headed toward what is known as climate tipping points. 

Climate tipping points are defined as critical thresholds that, when exceeded, can create huge, irreversible changes in ecosystems. 

Recent studies have found that we are at, or about to reach two big climate tipping points. One in the tropics, one in the icy environment around Antarctica. 

All this is part of the second Global Tipping Points report from the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute in England. The report examines some of the fundamental processes that support life on the planet and how close they are to suffering permanent damage. 

CORAL REEFS

In recent years, we've heard about coral bleaching, in which these organisms lose their colorful appearance and turn ghostly white and die, due to the water temperatures being too hot to support them. 

As climate change warms the oceans, these bleaching or diebacks are becoming more common. 

Now, according to CBS News:

"Scientists have determined that the 'tipping point' for coral reefs begins the global warming reaches 1.2 degrees Celsius, with somewhere between 70 and 90 percent of coral dying when that number climbs to 1.5 degrees. 

About 84 percent of the world's coral reefs had bleaching this year in the most intense event of its kind in history, according to the International Coral Reef Initiative."

Sure, coral reefs are pretty, but most of us won't get to see them. So if they die back, is it really a big deal? 

The answer is a loud yes. Coral reefs provide habitat for about 25 percent of all  underwater species. They also support the livelihoods of about a billion people. 

The past two years have been the warmest recorded on Earth. Though 2025 will be a tiny bit cooler than the previous two years, it won't be by much. With such intense warmth, coral reefs have reached their breaking point. 

ANTARCTIC ICE 

This chart shows pretty stable levels of ice
around Antarctica until around 2000. Then
it began to increase. But starting a
decade ago, the amount of ice began to
drop sharply. 

A paper in the journal Nature describes previously unnoted details of interrelated effects of abruptly melting ice. 

The study in the journal Nature stated: 

"A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects its more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversable than Arctic sea ice loss." It also said.

 Evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. "

According to Reuters, the study gathered data from observations, ice cores, and ship logbooks to charge long-term changes in the area of sea ice, putting into context a rapid decline in recent years. 

That decline means a smaller ice sheet at the bottom of the world. Ice reflects the sun's heat back, to space, So less ice in and around Antarctica means more warmth is sucked in by the planet, making climate change that much worse. 

Reduced Antarctic ice  can shift ocean currents, which changes the distribution of krill, phytoplankton and other sources of nutrition for larger animals in the region, like emperor penguins. 

The amount of Antarctic ice remained pretty stable for at least the century ending around 2000, making life relatively predictable for the region's ecosystem.

Then. as the new century began,  the level of Antarctic ice began to increase, contrary to what you'd expect from climate change. Scientists suspect increased snowfall due to a warming world's ability to produce excess precipitation, in this case, snow, was partly responsible.

After that, suddenly, around a decade ago, the amount of Antarctic ice began to plummet rapidly. The amount of ice is now well below where it was during most of the 20th century. The decline so far shows no real sign of stopping or slowing down. 

The loss of coral reefs and the Antarctic ice situation are two examples of how one effect of climate change can have a snowball effect, making other aspects of a warming world worse, and also accelerate the rate of warming. 

 , opens new tab 

Water Temperatures On Florida Coast A Hot Tub, Is It A Record? Doesn't Matter, Precious Coral Dying

Fish swim past bleached and dying coral off the 
coast of Florida in this image from Coral Morphalogic,

 It was a record high ocean temperature, then it wasn't. 

You probably heard the wide-spread reports that the water temperature in Manatee Bay, Florida reached 101.1 degrees. That's a pretty standard temperature for a hot tub.  

Turns out, as serious as the hot water is, it might not be a record. 

Mike Lowry, a hurricane and storm surge expert in Florida, said he found evidence that this is not a new record after all. He tweeted: "Amazingly, the water temperature at Manatee Bay FL on Monday, while historically high, may not be a record for the station. Back in August, 2017, it hit 102 F according to Everglades National Park South Florida Natural Resources Center (SDNRC) that maintains the sensor network."

Also, the water in Manatee Bay gets hot quickly because there's a lot of dark sediment floating around in it. That attracts the sun's heat, making it get toasty quickly. 

All this is not to dismiss the importance of that 101.1 degree water temperature in Manatee Bay, and the record hot water all around Florida. I'm for precision, but I'm sure not going to gaslight, or sugar coat what's going on. 

El Nino, which tends to raise ocean temperatures, and climate change have conspired to cause all kinds of problems around the world. Including creating some dangerously high water temperatures around Florida.  

CORAL CRISIS

The most serious issue with this hot tub water is the fate of the coral reefs around Florida. Hot water can have dire consequences for those coral reefs.  That's a potential tragic loss for Florida, and to some extent, the nation as a whole.   

Per the Washington Post:

"Already, scientists have reported widespread coral bleaching along parts of the roughly 360-mile long reef, the third larges on the planet. If the heat drafts on, they say, a massive coral die-off could follow, with grave consequences for fish and other ocean organisms that depend on the reefs, tourism, commercial fishing and part of the state's very identity."

The coral reefs also dissipate up to 97 percent of the energy in waves generated by storms and hurricanes. This minimizes damage from such storms along the coast. Lose the coral, lose the coastline in a future hurricane.

Coral bleaching does not mean dead coral.  But it's a big step in that direction.  WaPo again:

"The corals have endured past incidents of bleaching, a process in which stressed corals expel their symbiotic algae, known as zooxanthellae, and turn pale or white. The frequency and severity of such events has increased since the 1980s, and one of the last significant bleaching events off the Florida Keys took place in 2014."

Scientists are especially worried because these really hot ocean temperatures hit pretty early in the summer. Past coral bleaching events started in mid-August, not mid-July like this year.  

The longer bleaching persists, the more coral will die. 

"If it remains this hot for the next six weeks, we are going to see a lot more coral mortality out there,' said Cynthia Lewis, director of the Florida Institute of Oceanography Keys Marine Laboratory."

Coral does best when the water temperature is between 73 and 84 degrees, so it's got a long way to go before it can cool off.   The water temperature in most of the coral reef area near Florida is between 90 and 98 degrees.

We  probably have to get into September before water temperatures near Florida noticeably start to cool.

Once the coral is dead, there's no coming back. Some scientists liken the current situation in Florida to a wildfire tearing through a rare old growth forest. 

The coral extends from north of Miami south and southwestward through the Florida Keys to a point out in the Gulf of Mexico west of Key West.

Scientists, activists and others are actually doing rescue missions for the coral around Florida. As the Miami Herald reports:

"Dozens of scientists working to save Florida's coral reefs are scrambling to save what they can, taking the highly unusual step of removing imperiled specimens and bringing them to the Keys Marine Laboratory operated by the University of South Florida and the Florida Institute of Oceanography, one of several sites in Florida accepting refugee corals amid the marine heat wave ringing the state."

They've accepted about 5,000 corals and are at 100 percent capacity at all the saltwater aquariums the institute has. That's a tiny percentage of the corals out there. 

Some spots have already reported 100 percent coral mortality rates, which is tragic. Miami Herald again: 

"'It is just truly like holy shit. It's more than a wake-up call. What do you do when the house burns down? How do you rebuild without the pieces you need to start all over again,' said Colin Ford, a coral researcher and artist who founded Coral Morphologic."

Even the corals that can survive the high heat of the water probably lost their ability to reproduce this year. They usually reproduce in August or early September, when, if anything, the water will be even hotter. Scientists think that will hinder or cancel any attempts to reproduce.

WATER AND HURRICANES

Here's another issue that makes the hot water around Florida worrying.  Such extremely warm water temperatures is super high octane fuel for hurricanes. 

If a hurricane is approaching the Florida coast this year, and the atmosphere supports the hurricane's structure, I'd have to worry the storm would rapidly strengthen on approach to the coast, catching people off guard.

Hurricane Ian last year sort of did that in and around Fort Myers Beach.

One slim hope for the coral this year is if a fairly weak tropical storm causes cool water upwelling from the lower depths of the water. A strong hurricane would do that, too, but we wouldn't want the destruction that entails. 

Other than that, the only mechanism to cool the hot water around Florida is autumn.