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| The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is forecasting a bout of wildfire smoke from Alberta overhead this afternoon. That will dim the sun, and possibly discourage some scattered showers from forming. Too bad, we could still use the rain. |
Burlington managed a third of an inch. Rutland and St. Johnsbury lucked out with about a half inch, and Montpelier didn't even quite make it to a quarter inch.
An exception to this is far southern Vermont, which received more than an inch of rain yesterday and last night.
Still, most of us are definitely behind in rainfall, and we here in Vermont could use a good soaking. Last night's rain just dampened the surfaces a little. I don't think any good rains are on the horizon just yet.
The rain this month shut off around May 3. We were doing well, with soil conditions quite moist ahead of the grown season. Yes, the weather has been mostly gorgeous this month. We've had plenty of sun. And the humidity has often hit rock bottom for our area. That has really dried us out. It makes me wonder if we're heading for what is known as a flash drought.
A flash drought is sort of like a flash flood, except obviously dry, not wet. A flash flood develops within minutes. A flash drought takes longer, like a few weeks to develop, instead of several months like a "traditional" drought.
The good news is, we're not getting into any kind of drought just yet. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, issued last Thursday, does not have any corners of Vermont listed as in drought or abnormally dry yet. But, if this weather pattern continues, that might change.
But we will if this weather pattern keeps up.
There's no guarantees, of course. Depending on what happens in the next few weeks, we might never get to drought if the weather pattern changes. But it it doesn't, we could be looking at yet another summer drought.
THIS WEEK
Our immediate future in Vermont is pretty dry. The forecast for at least the next week doesn't give me a lot of confidence we'll see any real rains to give us that needed drenching.
There could be an isolated or scattered shower, especially north, this afternoon, but anybody who is lucky enough to see a shower won't see much rain out of them.
Plus, another smoke attack from Alberta this afternoon will probably help squelch the towering clouds you need to see some scattered showers.
Today's quick blast of wildfire smoke might be the thickest we've seen yet. Most of the smoke will be high overhead, so it will just greatly dim the sun and make it seem almost like an overcast day. That will hold temperatures down to below what they would reach. So instead of low 70s, count on perhaps 60s.
Unlike the smoke earlier this month, a little bit of it will make it to the surface. So, if you are especially sensitive to pollution, if you have lung problems, or a nasty case of asthma, you might consider staying inside.
Forecasts call for two more bursts of dry, cool air coming down from Canada this week. One tonight, the other Wednesday night. These two outbreaks won't be nearly as cold as the last one this past Wednesday and Thursday, which gave a killing freeze.
Instead, we'll have a little frost in the normally colder spots, but the rest of us should be OK. However, each burst of cool high pressure will create very low humidity and breezes, which would help dry us out more.
The cold front that will introduce the second batch of cool air for next Thursday will probably have enough oomph to produce a few showers, but it won't be that much.
Beyond that, there's suddenly question marks in the forecast as of this morning. Up through yesterday, it looked like this Friday and on into the weekend will feature dry, warm weather. Now, some of the computer models are hinting at an upper level low stalling nearby.
On the negative side, that would introduce a lot of clouds and cool temperatures for the Memorial Day weekend. On the bright side, this upper level low could generate a few needed showers.
It's unclear if those showers next weekend, if they develop, will turn out to be worthless sprinkles or something a little more substantial. We'll wait and see on that.
The weather pattern could also flip dramatically as we head into the summer, too. The most notable example I could find was in 1998, which brought us a very warm and dry April through mid-May.
Then things turned much, much wetter, and by the third week of June, Vermont was experiencing destructive flash floods. That flood-prone weather pattern ended up continuing through much of the summer of 1998.
I'm not exactly hoping for another 1998. But I wouldn't complain about a reasonable amount of rain this June.
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