Hurricane Season Forecast Issued; A Really Complicated, Iffy Forecast

Satellite view of Hurricane Ian about to make landfall
in southwestern Florida last year. The number of
expected tropical storms and hurricanes this
year is really a tossup, according to forecasters. 

NOAA released its official hurricane season forecast on Thursday, and there are a lot of ifs and maybes win that prediction. 

There's two opposing forces going on in the Atlantic this year. One factor could give us a lot of hurricanes, but another factor could give us a lighter year than in the recent past. 

NOAA is pretty much splitting the difference, calling for a near-average hurricane season. 

On one hand, El Nino is developing, and that tends to help squelch hurricane activity in the Atlantic. On the other hand, thanks in large part to climate change, the Atlantic Ocean is much warmer than historical averages, and is expected to stay that way all summer and early fall.

Warm water tends to encourage more hurricane development. So the question is which will win out?

NOAA's annual hurricane forecast gives what they believe are the percentage chances of an above normal, quieter than average or typical hurricane season. This year's version really shows what a tossup the season is. 

NOAA tells us there's "a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season."

Yeah, that doesn't tell us much.  I guess the prospect for Atlantic hurricanes this year is anybody's guess.

For the record, NOAA says we should expect 12 to 17 names storms (ones with winds of 39 mph or more) and five to nine of these would be hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher. One to four of these would be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.

NOAA says it has a 70 percent confidence in these numbers. Again, pretty uncertain. 

Hurricane seasons in the past six years or so have been super active in the Atlantic Ocean, with several devastating hurricanes. Last year, two of them, Hurricane Fiona and especially Hurricane Ian, caused billions in property losses in Puerto Rico, Canada and Florida. 

Other hurricane forecasts for this year in the Atlantic Ocean vary. The British Met Office predicts a busy year, with 20 named storms, compared to an average of 14. The Met Office expects around 11 hurricanes, with around five major hurricanes. 

Colorado State University also issues closely-watched Atlantic hurricane forecasts. They're predicting a comparatively light storm season, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes. 

The two opposing forces - El Nino and the warm ocean water, could create a lot of nuances in the hurricane season. It's possible the warm water will generate lots of relatively weak, disorganized tropical storms that don't last long. Strong upper level winds generated by El Nino could rip them apart.

Or, the opposing forces could just re-arrange where the severest storms form.  As the Associated Press reports, University of Miami hurricane research Brian McNoldy says it's possible that El Nino would suppress hurricane activity in the Caribbean, but shift more activity northward to near Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.  

Whatever the number of tropical storms and hurricanes we see this year, remember, it only takes one to really strike a catastrophic blow. 

An often used example is the year 1992. Overall, it was a very quiet year, with just seven tropical storms, hurricanes or sub-tropical storms. But one of the storms was Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 monster with 175 winds that devastated much of South Florida. It directly caused 26 deaths and $25 billion in damage. 

Also, note that places that were struck by severe hurricanes in recent years have not yet fully recovered. .Any new hurricanes striking the same areas would be especially catastrophic.

Given all the uncertain hurricane forecasts out there, we'll just need to hope for great luck with these storms.