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| Areas of frost in Vermont this morning, but a nastier, potentially damaging freeze and frost are in the forecast for the middle of the week. |
Quite a few places in and around Vermont had a frost with near freezing temperatures this morning. The chill wasn't enough to mess with gardens, unless you left really sensitive plants outdoors overnight.
The Champlain Valley avoided any frost, from what I can tell. The coldest hollow, like Island Pond and Gallup Mills in the Northeast Kingdom, got down to at least 28 degrees. The perennial cold spot Saran Lake, New York reached at least 26.
If you thought this was nippy for May, wait until the middle of this week. I'm getting more and more worried about an unseasonable blast from Canada that might damage crops and gardens around here.
The upcoming cold snap has the strength of something you'd see in March, not May. Temperatures early Thursday morning could be near record lows in some spots,
Today will be nice. It'll warm up quickly from this morning's lows and approach 70 degrees. The brilliant sunshine we had over the weekend will be dimmed some by more smoke from those fires in Alberta, Canada and some high clouds moving in this afternoon.
After a mild night tonight, the nasty cold front will crash the spring party starting tomorrow afternoon. As it comes in, it'll create quite a temperature contrast in Vermont for a time. Near the Canadian border, temperatures mid to late afternoon will be crashing downward through the 50s. Southern Vermont will still be well up into the 70s.
There's not a lot of moisture with this cold front, so we only expect some fairly light showers. As the cold rushes in Tuesday night, lingering showers could turn to flurries in the mountains,
But the frigid air is dry, so that atmosphere will limit accumulations on the mountaintops.
Most of us won't have a freeze Tuesday night, but it will be close. Start protecting sensitive plants or bring them indoors Tuesday evening and leave them indoors until Thursday.
Wednesday will be blustery and very cold for May. The "warm" spots will top out in the low 50s, while many of us stay in the 40s. For comparison, normal highs this time of year are in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Another thing to watch out for during the day Wednesday is the risk of fires. If the showers under-perform on Tuesday and skies stay generally clear Wednesday, very dry air would mix down from aloft. The super dry air and gusty winds would really spread any brush or forest fires quickly.
Worth keeping an eye out.
The main problem is Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. If there's any clouds left, they'll clear out in the evening. The gusty north winds will diminish to calm as the night goes on.
This is a perfect set up for a late season freeze. At this point, it looks like it will get down to freezing everywhere except right near Lake Champlain.
Burlington until now was on track to have one of, or THE earliest last freeze of the spring. The last time it got to 32 degrees there was on April 10.
Now, it appears Burlington will have one of its latest freezes in recent years. For the record, the latest spring freeze there was on May 31, 1965.
Fruit crops like apples and strawberries are blooming much earlier than average because of what has until now been a warm spring. I do worry there could be some damage to those crops.
Gardeners are going to be dismayed, too, as some early blooming perennials and such might get nipped. Depends on how cold it gets.
This forecast will be fine-tuned as we get closer to the event. It's still possible that the freeze threat is overblown, and it won't be as bad as we think now. On the other hand, it could still end up even worse than I'm outlining here.
I'll post updates.
On Thursday, temperatures will rise rapidly and the frost and freeze will be over. However, there are some iffy signs that another frost and freeze could strike about a week from now.
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