Monday's Severe Weather Outbreak Tempered, More Severe Storms Northeast Today, Vermont On The Margins

Big area in yellow and especially orange have a risk
of severe storms and maybe a couple of tornadoes
today. Areas in dark green, including much of
Vermont, just have a marginal risk of an 
isolated severe storm or two. 

 Monday's anticipated tornado outbreak in the upper Midwest left a trail of damage, but doesn't appear to be nearly as bad as it could have been.  

That's a rare bit of good news in what has been an active, deadly tornado, severe storm and flood season in the United States.

Through April 27, there has been a preliminary count of 668 tornadoes this year in the United States. The average count for that point in the year is 475.   

So far, 2025 has had more tornadoes through April 27 than all but one year since 2010. (The year 2011 was insane, with 1,262 tornadoes through April 27).

At least a couple tornadoes touched down in southern Minnesota and in Wisconsin, leading to trails of damage but no serious injuries. 

It's not done, of course, as today is still forecast to be an active severe weather day. Today's threat extends in a long line from northern and central New York southwestward all the way to western Texas.

In the line, the highest risk of damaging storms, large hail and a few tornadoes are in central and western New York, northwest Pennsylvania, Ohio, and in northern Texas.

New York is the weird one. It's a new tornado alley in the Northeast. The state had a record number of tornadoes in 2024.  New York has already had a couple tornado warnings this year, though I don't have any information on whether any touched down. 

I give decent odds that at least a brief twister could touch down today in western New York 

VERMONT THREAT

The expected weather in New York today might make you wonder if that severe weather will sweep over into the Green Mountain State. 

Turns out, here in Vermont, we're in the margins of the severe weather threat. 

New York State, all the way from Buffalo to the Adirondacks, should be in a relatively sweet spot for severe storms today.  Dew points, a measure of how humid it is, should get into at least the low 60s, which would be fuel for strong storms. 

The right combination of strong upper level winds with direction changing with height will come during the afternoon. That's when the sun's peak heating hits. Those winds and the instability the sun's heat creates also improves chances of severe storms.

Here in Vermont, the conditions won't be quite as good. 

It'll get plenty warm, with some towns possibly touching 80 degrees for the first time this year.  At least early in the day, sunshine will further destabilize the atmosphere. But the humidity won't be quite a high in Vermont as it will be in New York. 

Also, the strong and veering winds in the atmosphere we'll see in New York won't be quite as strong or organized over Vermont.  Plus, most of the storms would arrive here after the peak heating of the day, so the instability in the air will have been starting to decrease by the time the weather system makes it into Vermont. 

The result will be likely a broken line, or broken lines of storms migrating in from New York late this afternoon and this evening weakening as they do so. 

Some of those storms might still have some oomph left to them when they make it to western Vermont.  

The northwestern half of Vermont is in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, or level one out of five on the threat scale, with five being the scariest.  Marginal risk means there might be isolated instances of damaging thunderstorm winds, but nothing widespread. 

Unlike in New York, there's no threat for any tornadoes today or this evening in Vermont. 

Of course, lightning is always dangerous, so you'll want to get indoors when and if you hear thunder. Some of the storms might have some briefly heavy downpours and small hail, too, but this won't be nearly enough to cause damage or create flooding problems. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Wednesday is looking bright and breezy and quite cool, with highs barely in the 50s for many of us. 

In warmer Vermont valleys, the growing season, at least in the opinion of the National Weather Service,, starts Thursday, May 1. 

As a result, the frosty weather Wednesday night will likely prompt a smattering of frost advisories for parts of Vermont Thursday morning.  Thursday afternoon will warm up nicely, though. 

The next storm is due Friday with likely showers and maybe some thunderstorms.