Rain Is Ending, Flooding Continues In Middle U.S. Here In Vermont, A Changeable Uncertain Week

What it looked like Saturday in Memphis

The death toll from a week of tornadoes and flooding in the middle of the nation is at least 16, as the bad weather finally begins to taper off today. 

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we're still avoiding extremes, but the weather could get a little interesting at times this week. And there's a lot more uncertainty than usual for what might happen toward the end of the week. 

As usual, we'll take a look at the grim national weather picture, then  update you about what to expect here in Vermont

MID-U.S. FLOODING ROARS ON

Flooding warnings were still in effect this morning for a vast area from eastern Oklahoma to Ohio to Alabama,

The rough weather had shifted to around Alabama this morning where a tornado watch and widespread flash flood warnings were in effect,

Large areas of Oklahoma, Tennessee and Kentucky received ten to 15 inches of rain this week, incredible amount for any kind of storm in that area.

Even though rain this morning was much lighter in this region and will end soon, it will take days for rivers to crest.

Some of the most torrential downpours of the week roared through Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and parts of surrounding states Saturday 

The flooding was not limited to rural areas and small towns. 

Flash flood emergencies and "particularly dangerous situation" flash flood warnings were issued for both Little Rock, Arkansas and Memphis, Tennessee.

Little Rock received ten inches so rain in four days, including a little over four inches Saturday. 

Memphis had 5.47 inches of rain Saturday, about as much as they normally see in the entire month of April. It was the city's wettest April day on record. Saturday's downpours brought the Memphis storm total for the week to over a foot of rain. Needless to say, the city was paralyzed by flash flooding on Saturday. 

Parts of the Ohio River are expected to crest at some of the highest levels in years. At Cincinnati, the Ohio is expected to crest at 60 feet, the highest level since 2018.

Meanwhile, at least five more tornadoes were reported Saturday in Mississippi.  So far, right around 100 tornadoes have been counted for the week. The number probably will rise a little more as damage paths are assessed. 

The weather pattern is changing -  temporarily at least - to a more benign one.  Weather systems will mostly flow smoothly west to east across the nation. At least until things hit the East Coast, where things might get a little gummed up and stormy toward the end of the week. 

This being spring, there will still threats of severe weather and heavy rain from time to time over the next week, but these will be much more widely scattered and much less intense than we saw during the past several days. 

VERMONT WEATHER WEEK

Don't expect spectacular spring weather this week, but at least there will be moments that aren't too bad.

Then again, expect some wintry weather, too. 

Yes, we're still dealing with snow prediction maps
here in Vermont. Most of the snow you see here
would come Monday night and Tuesday. Some 
of the Green Mountains could see four to six'
inches of snow while many valleys get one to
three inches. This map of course is subject to
change as more data comes in. 

After light showers last night and some gusty winds in the northern Champlain Valley, rain was slowly settling to the south this morning. It looks like at least northern and central Vermont should have a dry, but cool and breezy afternoon.

The cold front that caused the unsettled weather is set to stall in southern New England, and a weak wave of low pressure will ride northeastward along it tonight and Monday. 

That will bring our first bout of wintry weather. Light rain and light snow will develop in southern Vermont tonight and continue into Monday. 

It looks like areas from Route 4 south could end up with a slushy coating to as much as an inch of new snow by Monday morning. 

Not a huge deal, but a reminder that winter doesn't give up easily in Vermont. 

We'll see an even bolder slap of winter Monday night and Tuesdays. A pretty strong disturbance that will introduce a blast of late season cold air will hit late Monday night and Tuesday. 

This won't have a tremendous amount of moisture with it, so no big snowstorm. But the strength of this system will help squeeze out enough snow to cause some problems. It looks like it might come in the form of heavy snow showers and snow squalls.

This still looks like it might be timed to screw up your Tuesday morning commute to work or school, so keep that in mind. Most valleys will probably see only a half inch to two inches of snow, but that's more than enough to ice up the pavement. 

We'll have to watch this system carefully, too. If it somehow manages to pull in some moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, we could be looking at more snow than I've outlined here. As it looks now, there's a 10 percent chance we could see a four to eight inch snowstorm. 

Yes, those 10 percent odds are pretty low, but they're not zero. I'm strongly doubting we'd get something like that, but it's enough for meteorologists to keep an eye on,

Tuesday itself will be blustery and quite cold for this time of year. Snow showers will continue all day. That's especially true in the central and northern Green Mountains, where several inches of snow might pile up. 

Some of us won't even get above freezing. The rest of  us will barely make it into the 30s for temperatures. .

It'll stay chilly Wednesday, but it will at least be a little warmer and less windy than Tuesday. 

The end of the week and next weekend is a big question mark. 

You might have caught up above where I said weather systems look like they might get gummed up along the East Coast. That traffic jam looks like it might spawn a nor'easter-like storm somewhere along  or off the coast.

We don't know what that means for us. It could mean nothing, just some occasional light sprinkles as weaker disturbances meander past Vermont and the main storm whiffs us off to the east.

Or this thing could come close enough to provide a fairly steady light rain or even high elevation snow. Worst case scenario is heavy precipitation of some sort, but at this point that worst case scenario is looking kinda doubtful right now. 

Bottom line: if you want to know what the weather is going to be like at the end of the week, you're going to have to wait a few days to find out.