Confirming That Global February Was "Cooler" But Still Historically Hot

On a global basis, February, 2021 was definitely warmer
than normal, but still the coolest February since 2014. 
Very cold areas in North America and northeastern Europe
drove the global average down a bit. 

A week or two ago I speculated that global average temperatures for February would be dragged down somewhat this year because of unusually cold weather in the United States and parts of Siberia.   

Sure enough, that happened, but regardless, February was still quite a bit warmer than historical averages. The global temperature for February as 1.17 degrees above average, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

That doesn't sound like much, but when you average out all the cold and warm spots the world came have in a month, that's actually pretty darn warm. 

Still, it was the coldest February on Earth since 2014.  Of the 142 years they've been keeping track of this, there have been 15 Februaries warmer than this year's. For the record, everyone under the age of 45 years old has never seen a February with global temperatures below average.

Judging from the maps the NECI put out with this data, it seems many of the cold spots were really cold and some of the warm spots were especially toasty. 

The obvious cold spots this February were much of North America,  Scandinavia and a good chunk of Siberia.

The really hot spots were large sections of Asia, eastern Canada and much of southern and western Europe.  

Two large scale weather patterns ganged and conspired to make this February a little colder than other recent second months. This amounted to a slight and temporary easing of climate change trends 

La Nina, a periodic cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to cool the global temperatures. In the Northern Hemisphere, something called the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation took hold in February.   

That negative phase makes the jet stream much wavier. Deep dips in the jet stream in this case in North America and northeastern Europe caused extreme cold in these areas. That extreme cold was enough to help drive down overall global temperatures, if you average them out. 

The more negative the Arctic Oscillation, the colder it gets, especially in the winter in North America. This year tied with Februaries of 1978 and 1969 as the most negative. Both those years were notoriously cold in North America.  

The negative Arctic Oscillation pretty much worked itself out, so it's not helping to cause any kind of extreme weather. It's been weakly negative this month, which has been helping to produce some pretty chilly outbreaks around New England, but those have been interrupted by mild spells. 

Additionally, La Nina is beginning to show some signs of weakening.  There is a lag, though from when a La Nina fades to when that trend has an effect on global temperatures. 

Though it's anybody's guess, I don't think March will have the degree of slight global "cooling" that February had.  If I had to guess, I'd say it will be in the Top 10 warmest. 

We'll find out when those updated numbers come in somewhere around mid-April.  

Global 2020 Temperatures Essentially Tied As Hottest On Record

The new red planet? Almost the whole world was warmer
than average in 2020, making it essentially tied as'the
warmest year on record.

 NOAA came through last Thursday with their analysis of global temperatures for 2020, and as expected, the news wasn't good.  

The just past year was essentially tied with 2016 as the hottest year on record.  To be precise, 2020 was almost imperceptibly a skosh cooler than 2016.

The year 2020 knocked down 2019 to third place in the hottest list. 

While NOAA's analysis puts 2020 at Number Two on the hot list, other scientific organizations call it a tie with 2016.  Says NOAA:

"NASA scientists, who conducted a separate but similar analysis, have determined that 2020 ties 2016 as the warmest year on record, sharing the first-place spot. 

Scientists from Copernicus also have 2020 tying with 2016 as the warmest year on record, while the United Kingdom Met Office ranked 2020 as the second-warmest year on record"

In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter whether 2020 tied with 2016 or was a teensy bit cooler.  You have to look at the multi-year trend, which isn't good. From BuzzFeed news:

"'The past seven years have been the warmest seven years on record,' said Lesley Ott, a NASA researcher. So regardless of where individual years fall, 'the consistency of the most recent ears being the warmest is very, very clear' she said. "

LA NINA/OTHER FACTORS

 By all rights, 2020 shouldn't have been that warm. Much of the year was dominated by a La Nina ocean and air pattern in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That tends to cool the globe a little bit, climate change notwithstanding. 

Despite the El Nina, 2020 was near a record high.

This El Nina is forecast to continue well into 2021.  Since the effects of a La Nina on the global climate tend to lag, it's highly unlikely 2021 will end up setting yet another record as the hottest on record. Still, scientists are virtually certain it will end up in the Top 10 hottest. 

You can see that minuscule cooling trend starting in the December, 2020.  The month was only the eight hottest on record. That one month probably prevented 2020 from being the warmest on record. 

One thing that might have worked a teeny, tiny bit in favor of making 2020 warmer was, believe it or not, the pandemic.  It caused, among a zillion other things, fewer cars and trucks on the roads globally. That meant less auto exhaust, which meant fewer tiny aerosols in the atmosphere from that pollution.

Those aerosols reflect sunlight a little bit, so with less global auto traffic, the sun was able to heat the atmosphere a smidge.

By the way, this isn't revisionist anti global warming stuff.  The aerosols from the cars fall out of the atmosphere pretty quickly. All that carbon dioxide from the cars, which contributes to global warming, stays in the atmosphere much longer. 

The 2020 temperature analysis is yet another screaming indicator of climate change. As BuzzFeed quoted:

"'This is a clear indication that the global signal from human-induced climate change is now as powerful as the force of nature,' Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in a statement."

At least there's going to be a renewed effort to do something about it.  Soon to be ex-president Trump backed out of the Paris Climate Accord. 

However, Joe Biden, whose first day at work as U.S. President is tomorrow, says he will move to rejoin that accord within hours of being sworn in. 

Biden is also reported to be poised to cancel the Keystone oil pipeline, which has been a lightning rod for climate activists in the United States.  That pipeline would, if completed, bring 830,000 barrels of crude oil each day from Alberta, Canada to the U.S., eventually making it to refineries along the Gulf Coast. 

 Canceling the pipeline won't do much to mute climate change, but it is a symbolic gesture toward combating the problem.