Global 2020 Temperatures Essentially Tied As Hottest On Record

The new red planet? Almost the whole world was warmer
than average in 2020, making it essentially tied as'the
warmest year on record.

 NOAA came through last Thursday with their analysis of global temperatures for 2020, and as expected, the news wasn't good.  

The just past year was essentially tied with 2016 as the hottest year on record.  To be precise, 2020 was almost imperceptibly a skosh cooler than 2016.

The year 2020 knocked down 2019 to third place in the hottest list. 

While NOAA's analysis puts 2020 at Number Two on the hot list, other scientific organizations call it a tie with 2016.  Says NOAA:

"NASA scientists, who conducted a separate but similar analysis, have determined that 2020 ties 2016 as the warmest year on record, sharing the first-place spot. 

Scientists from Copernicus also have 2020 tying with 2016 as the warmest year on record, while the United Kingdom Met Office ranked 2020 as the second-warmest year on record"

In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter whether 2020 tied with 2016 or was a teensy bit cooler.  You have to look at the multi-year trend, which isn't good. From BuzzFeed news:

"'The past seven years have been the warmest seven years on record,' said Lesley Ott, a NASA researcher. So regardless of where individual years fall, 'the consistency of the most recent ears being the warmest is very, very clear' she said. "

LA NINA/OTHER FACTORS

 By all rights, 2020 shouldn't have been that warm. Much of the year was dominated by a La Nina ocean and air pattern in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That tends to cool the globe a little bit, climate change notwithstanding. 

Despite the El Nina, 2020 was near a record high.

This El Nina is forecast to continue well into 2021.  Since the effects of a La Nina on the global climate tend to lag, it's highly unlikely 2021 will end up setting yet another record as the hottest on record. Still, scientists are virtually certain it will end up in the Top 10 hottest. 

You can see that minuscule cooling trend starting in the December, 2020.  The month was only the eight hottest on record. That one month probably prevented 2020 from being the warmest on record. 

One thing that might have worked a teeny, tiny bit in favor of making 2020 warmer was, believe it or not, the pandemic.  It caused, among a zillion other things, fewer cars and trucks on the roads globally. That meant less auto exhaust, which meant fewer tiny aerosols in the atmosphere from that pollution.

Those aerosols reflect sunlight a little bit, so with less global auto traffic, the sun was able to heat the atmosphere a smidge.

By the way, this isn't revisionist anti global warming stuff.  The aerosols from the cars fall out of the atmosphere pretty quickly. All that carbon dioxide from the cars, which contributes to global warming, stays in the atmosphere much longer. 

The 2020 temperature analysis is yet another screaming indicator of climate change. As BuzzFeed quoted:

"'This is a clear indication that the global signal from human-induced climate change is now as powerful as the force of nature,' Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in a statement."

At least there's going to be a renewed effort to do something about it.  Soon to be ex-president Trump backed out of the Paris Climate Accord. 

However, Joe Biden, whose first day at work as U.S. President is tomorrow, says he will move to rejoin that accord within hours of being sworn in. 

Biden is also reported to be poised to cancel the Keystone oil pipeline, which has been a lightning rod for climate activists in the United States.  That pipeline would, if completed, bring 830,000 barrels of crude oil each day from Alberta, Canada to the U.S., eventually making it to refineries along the Gulf Coast. 

 Canceling the pipeline won't do much to mute climate change, but it is a symbolic gesture toward combating the problem. 

 

Nation's Hot And Cold Spots

Map showing the location of daily hottest and coldest
places in the United States in 2020. Click on the map
to make it bigger and easier to see. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center put out a pretty cool map showing where the daily hot spots and cold spots were in the nation during 2020.  

The usual suspect had the bulk of the cold and hot spot reports. On 106 days last year, Death Valley took the honors of being the hottest spot in the nation. 

Taking second place for the most days this in 2010 capturing the prize for the hottest spot in the nation was Rio Grande Village, Texas.  

That's in an area along the Mexican border southeast of El Paso where the Rio Grande takes a big bend toward the south. 

Top honors for the most frequent cold spot in the United States in 2020 was a lovely sounding spot called Peter Sinks, Utah.  It was the cold spot 94 times. 

New England was the cold spot a number of times in 2020. Mount Washington took the honors 20 times, but I don't think it's fair they were included. After all, it's a mountain summit, which tends to get more extreme weather. And Mount Washington is certainly know for it's extremes.

A place in northern Maine called Estcourt Station was the cold spot 16 times. 

Locations in Vermont took top spot for cold in the contiguous United States twice in 2020.  The data provided by the Weather Prediction Center doesn't give the names of locations for the cold or hot spots if they were one-offs. 

The nation's cold spot in 2020 on one day was up in the Northeast Kingdom. That must have been notorious cold spot Island Pond.  Another cold spot for the nation was a town a little south of Rutland, but I'm not sure which one 

Record Number Of Billion Dollar Weather Disasters Was Another Reason To Hate 2020

The nation experienced 22 weather-related disasters
during 2020 that each caused at least $1 billion in 
damage. Another reason to hate the year 2020.

The United States last year faced a total of 22 weather disasters that caused at least $1 billion in damage.  

It was the most such disasters for any year on record.  It's just one more reason why the year 2020 really, really sucked. 

According to CNN:

"The cumulative cost of these disasters in 2020 is $95 billion, the fourth-highest total annual cost since 1980, behind 2017, 2005 and 2012 (all inflation adjusted to 2020 dollars)."

CNN continues: 

"This is the sixth year in a row that the US has experienced 10 or more separate billion dollar disasters,' NOAA climatologist Adam Smith told CNN Weather. Ten disasters has become the more recent standard of what to expect in a year, he added."

Hurricanes tend to be the most expensive weather disasters. Seven of the billion dollar disasters in 2020 were caused by hurricanes. If there's a silver lining, it's that this year's hurricanes didn't strike heavily populated places like Houston, Miami, and New York while they were at full strength. 

Those three other super expensive years involved hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria; in 2017; Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005; Sandy in 2012).

The most expensive disasters in 2020 were Hurricane Laura, with $19 billion in damage; western U.S. wildfires, at $16.5 billion, and the August 10 derecho in Iowa and surrounding states, $11 billion.  

People might be quick to blame climate change for the increasing costs of these disasters.  They're partly right, but there's a lot more going on than just a warmer world. 

Development continues to boom in places that are vulnerable: Ocean front property that can be wrecked by hurricanes, houses in the woods in wildfire zones, that kind of thing. 

Here in Vermont, we had the usual share of locally damaging storms but we were not part of any of the 22 $1 billion disasters that hit the nation in 2020.

The last time any part of Vermont had a weather related disaster declaration was from the Halloween storm of 2019, which caused widespread, destructive flooding and wind damage across northern and central Vermont. 

The Green Mountain State has proven prone to disasters, especially in the past decade or two.  Parts of Vermont have been declared weather-related disaster areas 18 times since 2010.  Most of those disasters primarily consisted of flooding. 

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The Year 2020 In Photos

 Every year, I like to highlight some of the photos I took from 2020. 

In one of my images from 2020, a thunderstorm begins to
erupt at sunset as viewed from St. Albans, Vermont in August.

In past years, they were all weather photos.  It's easier to chase storms, or interesting clouds or what have you all over Vermont when there's no pandemic to keep you home. 

This year, I stayed in St. Albans most of the time. Also, although we had plenty of weather extremes, there wasn't a lot of photogenic drama, at least near me. 

But, there was plenty of beauty in the sky, the clouds, the gardens, the landscape. And boy 2020 was certainly a year in which we had to look for beauty! 

Luckily Ma Nature cooperated in this endeavor this year. 

I"ve turned it into an annual tradition where I took a short YouTube video featuring some of what I photographed during the year. 

Here's this year's installment. Almost all the photos were taken around my property in St. Albans, Vermont. The rest were taken within a 20 minute drive of my place. 

As always, click on the YouTube logo on the video to make it bigger and easier to see. 

In Vermont 2020 Was Second Hottest Year; Whole Decade Hot

A small thunderstorm forms southwest of St. Albans,
Vermont on a hot, humid summer evening in 2020.
The year was the second hottest on record in Burlington,
and July was the hottest on record. 

 In Burlington, Vermont at least, the year 2020 will go down as the second hottest year on record. 

The average temperature for the year was  49.4 degrees. The only year that was hotter was 2012, which came in at a scorching (for Vermont) 49.9 degrees. 

Records for Burlington go all the way back to the 1880s, but the eight hottest years have all occurred since 1998. The four warmest years have all been since 2012.  

That's quite a streak.  Climate change, anyone?

The heat was consistent through the year in Vermont. In Burlington, the only month in 2020 that was cooler than average was April, which was 1.4 degrees below normal. 

The year 2020 brought us the hottest July on record (76.8 degrees), the ninth warmest March (37.3 degrees) the third hottest November (43.3 degrees) and the sixth warmest December (31.3 degrees).

This past year bucked one trend we've been noticing. It's generally been getting wetter over the past few decades in Vermont.  Five of the top 10 wettest years have been since 1998. 

But 2020 was dry.  Burlington accumulated 31.38 inches of rain and melted snow. That's 5.44 inches below averages. We weren't in the top 10 list of dry years, but it was a bit thirsty. 

Other than the warm temperatures, we in Vermont didn't see a lot of the extremes we have had in recent years, but they were there. 

Some examples:

1. This was the first May in which Burlington had both measurable snow and temperatures above 90 degrees. 

During a sharp cold wave on Mother's Day weekend, Burlington eeked out 0.1 inches of snow.  Other towns in Vermont had several inches. 

On May 27, the temperature soared to 95 degrees in Burlington, setting a new all-time high temperature for the month of May. 

Smoke and haze aloft obscures the sun over South 
Burlington, Vermont in summer. Signs of climate
change: The smoke from western wildfires, and
a decade in Vermont with the hottest years
on recor. 

2. Hot days: After the two 90 degree days in May, Burlington would go on to total 20 days with 90 degree readings. That's the most since 1988.  

Burlington also had the fewest days of any year with temperatures reaching the single digits. There were only 16 such days in 2020.

3. Tropical Storm Isaias on August 4 became a rare such storm to move directly over Vermont. It was still characterized as a tropical storm when it was over Rutland late that day. 

The tropical storm dumped one to five inches of rain, mostly on western Vermont. However, it had been dry before that, so there was little flooding.

Strong winds on the east side of Isaias caused power outages in eastern Vermont. 

4. Tropical storm Isaias prompted tornado watches in southern Vermont.  That was one of three tornado watches to be in effect in Vermont in 2020.  Thankfully, no tornadoes are known to have touched down.

Still, in this topsy turvy year, Vermont had tornado watches in 2020 than most of South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and western Oklahoma, the heart of tornado alley. 

5. This was one of the worst years in American history for wildfires.  No big wildfires occurred in Vermont, but the sun in the Green Mountain state in August, September and October was often dimmed by smoke and haze aloft from those western fires. 

6. November in Vermont is known for its chill gloom and overcast. However, the first part of the month was delightfully sunny and warm.  Numerous record highs in Vermont were reported under mostly clear skies from November 6 to 10. Burlington had four consecutive days in the 70s, the most such readings on record for Vermont. 

7. An epic snowstorm struck mostly the southern third of Vermont on December 16-17.  Pending verification,   42 inches in Peru, Vermont is likely the heaviest 24 hour snow on record in Vermont. The snow came down incredibly heavy, with reports of 18 inches of snow in six hours or less. The storm largely missed northern Vermont. 

8. Vermont experienced its warmest Christmas on record. Burlington had a record high of 65 degrees. At 8 a.m. Christmas morning, Burlington was at 64 degrees. This made it at that hour the warmest place in the contiguous Lower 48 United States.  The warmth, combined with rain, caused some flooding in southern Vermont as the deep snow cover from the earlier storm rapidly melted. 

Waiting For The Terrible News After Hurricane Iota Strikes Nicaragua

Hurricane Iota as a Category 5 yesterday bearing 
down on Nicaragua

 Hurricane Iota slammed into Nicaragua last night with sustained winds of 155 mph, with surely devastating results.  

It had "weakened" from top wind Category 5 wind speeds of 160 mph while the storm was just offshore, but of course that 5 mph decline made absolutely no difference in the devastation. 

Hurricane Iota came ashore just 15 miles from where Category 4 Hurricane Eta hit two weeks ago. Which means the same area was devastated by Category 4 hurricanes in the same month.  The trauma for the people who live in that area must be just awful. 

We don't have details of what exactly is happening in that storm, as it's still raging. Hurricane Iota is smacking into the mountainous terrain in Nicaragua, which means its winds will die down very quickly and mercifully today.

But Iota has to rain itself out in these mountains, already super saturated by Eta.  As a result, the flash flooding and mud slides will be immense, with up to 30 inches of rain expected.

The only saving grace with Iota is it will die over the Nicaraguan mountains.  That's in contrast to Hurricane Eta, which bounced off the mountains back into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Eta then went on to cause extensive flooding days later in Cuba and Florida. 

Not happening this time. 

There's some weird stuff going on with this year's hurricane season. This is the busiest one on record, as we've already established, with 30 named storms.  Believe it or not, there's a chance of another tropical storm next week in the western Caribbean Sea. 

Hurricane Iota was the strongest hurricane of the 2020 season. That's especially strange since the strongest hurricane of any season (usually, but not always) hits near the peak of the season in late August or September. 

Like several hurricanes this season - such as Laura, Delta and Eta - Iota strengthened very rapidly from not much to a monster in a matter of a day or two.  In fact, looking at records that date back roughly a century,  three of the 11 hurricanes in the Atlantic that have strengthened the quickest have occurred in the past month. (That's Delta, Eta and Iota).

Iota was also obviously the strongest November hurricane to strike Nicaragua. The previous record was set by Hurricane Eta a couple weeks ago. 

Many factors contributed to this year's busy and tragic hurricane season.  One important factor was high sea surface temperatures. Those warm waters were made toastier in part due to climate change, so there's certainly evidence that climate change might have made this year's hurricane death and damage toll worse than it otherwise would have been.