Vermont Braces For Storms, Flash Floods Today, Tonight

So here we are

A delicate sky that looks more like a painting 
greeted early risers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
Skies will be anything but delicate over the
state later today as a real flash flood risk ramps up.

On the one-year anniversary of one of the worst floods in Vermont's history, we're about to see that flood's kid brother. 

Sure, this one won't be quite as bad as the experiences we endured 365 days ago,  but it will probably be bad enough. 

No one is exactly sure where yet, but we are pretty much guaranteed seeing washed out roads. property damage, and likely water wrecking the insides of some homes and businesses.

Let's hope it's not too many homes and businesses.

THE SETUP

Unlike the flooding a year ago, which pretty much encompassed all of Vermont, the event today and tonight will be a little spottier. There's still a good chance of pretty widespread trouble, just not as all-encompassing as July 10, 2023. 

It's just hard to predict which spots will see the worst of it. It'll be a case of one town being ransacked by a flash flood, while a few towns over, everything is fine and dandy. 

The forecasts have settled on the northern half of Vermont being at greatest risk. But where in northern Vermont the bullseye for the most torrential rains won't really be known until we get well into the event. Which means everyone should be on their toes.

In that zone from Route 4 into southern Canada, converging air will ensure heavy rains. That means air will be funneled into a tight squeeze in northern Vermont between a warm front to the south and a cold front in Canada.

When air is squeezed like that, it has nowhere to go but up. Rising air causes moisture to condense and fall as rain. The air over us is super wet, as you can tell by the high humidity. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl are injecting even more moisture into the picture.

So you see why we're getting all that rain. 

Pretty much everybody from roughly Route 4 northward should see at least two to three inches of rain between now and Thursday morning.  That would be enough to set off at least a little flooding in any areas.

The devil is always in the details, though. Somewhere in that zone from about Route 4 north will probably be a band of even heavier rain. That's the part which is hard to determine. 

That heavier west to east band of especially torrential rains could set up later today anywhere from roughly Route 4 to the Canadian border or even far southern Quebec.

 That higher risk flood band might only be 50 miles wide or even less, perhaps. Whoever is unlucky enough to be under the most torrential rain would see three to six inches of rain out of this. That would cause really bad flooding and washouts. 

This is just one of many varying predictions on
rainfall through tomorrow morning. The northern
two thirds of Vermont in this map gets 1.5 to
three inches of rain, but there will probably be
embedded spots of three to six inch totals. 

The risk for flash flooding will start probably early this afternoon and ramp up through the day. 

Rainfall rates will be high enough in some spots, so that you'd go from all is well to gushing water in an hour. Or even minutes. The intensity and coverage of the downpours will probably wax and wane, so don't necessarily relax if there's a lull.

Much of the heavy rain will come after dark, which makes things all the more dangerous. 

By tomorrow, the rain will largely be over. By morning, water will be rising in the main rivers. The bigger waterways like the Lamoille and Winooski might have some issues, but at this point I still really doubt that water will get into the downtowns of communities like Montpelier and Johnson, like what happened last year. 

So far at least, the National Weather Service is saying the rivers most likely to get near or reach flood stage are the Otter Creek, Mad River and Missisquoi River. Unlike last year, major flooding along our rivers is not in the forecast. 

A secondary risk today remains in southern Vermont in the form of possible severe storms. The remnants of tropical storms and weather disturbances near warm fronts, like we have today, can easily set off rotating supercells or thunderstorms.

We still have the risk of damaging winds from storms in the southern half of Vermont later today. There is even the low but real risk of a brief tornado. 

WHAT TO DO

Here are some more tips and reminders as to what to do with this weather situation.

If you have stuff that could go under water, like if your basement floods easily, move those items this morning to a higher, safer place. If you have a sump pump, make sure it's working. 

If you're in a flood prone area, you might need to act fast. Pack a to-go bag with essentials, including medications and important papers.  Think about how best to grab your pets, and how to help elderly relatives and friends get to safety if need be.

Have more than one way to receive flash flood or storm warnings. There might well be power outages, so charge your devices this morning. A weather radio is a great idea.

If you live in a rural or mountainous area where roads might get washed out, and/or you might have to shelter in place while the roads are blocked by water,   you might want to skip down to the grocery store this morning to pick up supplies like bottled water, non-perishable food. Not to mention baby food for the little ones if you have them and food for your pets.

I hope you find this blog useful for general info, but for fast breaking updates and warnings,  pay attention to reputable weather sources and not just some rando bonehead on social media. Your best bets for important warnings are the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, and the meteorologists at WPTZ, WCAX and WVNY/WFFF.

Whatever you do, do NOT drive over flooded roads. They always say turn around, don't drown. Flood deaths are very common in flooding. Rescue crews might also be stretched thin tonight or have trouble accessing you due to flooding, so that's something to consider.

At least half of the flash flood risk with this event is coming after dark. You can't easily see flooding or washouts ahead of you on the road at night often until it is too late.  If you have plans to go out tonight, you might reconsider and pick another night that isn't so stormy and potentially dangerous. 

Any cleanup that has to be done Thursday after the flooding will come amid warm temperatures and continued really high humidity.

That sets the stage for heat exhaustion, so you'll need to take it easy, don't rush, and stay hydrated. 

Not everyone in Vermont will have trouble with this storm.  In a few spots, the rain will do more good than harm, watering gardens and crops. But where the weather hits hard over the next 24 hours, it will hit really hard. 

It'll be one of those weird, random types of trouble we so often see in the summer. This one is just a bigger problem than usual. 

Media, Including Me, Recently Wrongly Ignored A Cataclysmic Climate Calamity

Destruction in Libya after last month's extreme flood,
made worse by both climate change and political
instability. This will happen again and again, unfortunately. 

Severe, record floods have been all over the new recently, as climate change has contributed to some epic inundations around the world.  

Yes, heat has been in the news for months, and so have floods. I can point to Vermont a few months ago, where we got tons of media attention for our horrible floods. 

Meanwhile, how many of you have heard details of the big flood last month in Libya? Sure, it's been in the news, sort of, but that calamity has not been a headline grabber. I also haven't touched this story, which is actually a shame. 

Two or three people died in Vermont's floods. Which is undeniably horrible. 

Over in Libya, the death toll was around 20,000, making it among the worst floods in modern history.  At least another 40,000 people have been displaced by the flood, just in the city of Derna. It pretty much got passing notice in the media. Can you imagine the uproar if God forbid a flood killed 20,000 people in the United States?

The Libya calamity was important, and we should have covered it more for this among other reasons: 

It was a classic example of how climate change teams up with humans' propensity for evil, corruption and incompetence to really mess things up. 

The storm that caused the flood, Storm Daniel, was turbo-charged by climate change. It formed over the Mediterranean Sea in September, and took on some tropical characteristics because of the record warm water temperatures out there. 

This along with the fact warmer air can hold more moisture than chillier air, helped Storm Daniel unleash incredible amounts of rain on Libya and elsewhere. It's another example of what climate change can do. 

On top of that, Libya's so-called government is in shambles.  As the BBC reports:

"Libya has been in political chaos since long-serving ruler Col Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and killed in 2011 - leaving the oil-rich nation effectively split with an interim, internationally recognized government operating from the capital, Tripoli, and another one in the east."

That other government is in control, as it were, with Derna.  Due to the chaos, Libya had no real system like stable nations to warn the population of the impending danger. 

When the big floods hit us here in Vermont this summer, we had a well-organized government agency, namely the National Weather Service, broadcasting precise, timely warnings.  That prompted people to get out of the way. People fled flood prone areas, based on the warnings they'd received.

Vermont's state government, especially Emergency Management, and well organized local first responders, rescued dozens of people. The national agency, FEMA, swooped in to provide aid. 

In other words, the system more or less worked, and fatalities were kept to a minimum. 

In Libya, had there been a functioning government, what ever their equivalent of the National Weather Service would have issued dire warnings. The government would then order evacuations. Derna would still have been largely destroyed, but perhaps tens of thousands of lives would have been saved. 

We've always been really, really bad, corrupt governments with fatal, often genocidal results. I'm not minimizing that. It's just that some humans, anyway, are incredibly cruel and indifferent beyond belief.

So there's a feedback loop between climate change and unstable governments.  It isn't and won't be just Libya. There are plenty of unstable governments one storm away from disarray and dissolution. Additionally climate change can destabilize governments. 

Migrants continue to flow toward Europe and the United States. That migrant flow is contributing to  political and societal divisions in both regions.  Please note I'm not taking sides on this issue here. But however you feel about migrants and immigration, fairly or not, it's causing political strife, discord, and most distressingly, either threats of violence or actual violence. 

Most of the migrants are fleeing crime, corruption, poverty and war. Increasingly, climate change is finding its way into the calculus when migrants decide whether to leave their homeland.

As PBS points out, it's hard to tease out how many are fleeing climate problems, because most migrants flee for more than one reason.  For instance, in El Salvador, crop failures due to climate driven droughts and floods and prompting people to leave. But those same people are also leaving due to gang violence and government corruption. 

So was it climate change, gangs or a bad government that prompted Mr. El Salvadorian to try fleeing to the United States? Probably a combination, but we'll never know. 

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, I'm still seeing bits and pieces of updates on the news regarding recovery from our July floods. I haven't heard a peep about Libya in weeks, it seems. 

Thursday a did a search on Google news "Libya flood." 

I did see one article from BBC published two days earlier titled "Libya floods: The flawed response that increased Derna death toll."

Other than that, there's a Washington Post story from a week ago, and nothing else for over two weeks. That's not to say there wasn't any other news story recently regarding the Libya flood, but you're left to wonder what's going on over there.

Yes, big new events are overshadowing Libya, the biggie being the Israel/Hamas mess and tragedy. 

But the dearth of updates on Libya and other international disasters leaves me thinking the victims are basically on their own with the aftermath. I know there are good international relief agencies trying to help, but there's only so much they can do.  

The Libya flood is definitely out of the headlines, for better or worse. We will just wait, dreading the next climate and human tragedy 

Vermont TV Weather Viewing Changes Big Time With Retirements Of Messner, Meyer

WPTZ head meteorologist Tom Messner, an icon of 
Vermont's airwaves, announced his impending 
retirement on Tuesday. 

 WPTZ-TV on Tuesday announced the impending retirement of their long time meteorologist Tom Messner. 

The news comes just a few months after longtime WCAX-TV weather forecaster Sharon Meyer retired after 42 years. For the last 31 years she had been the WCAX lead forecaster.  

The two retirements are removing two of Vermont's most reliable weather forecasters from the airwaves. The pair are as iconic as Stuart Hall and Bird Berdan. and are both in the Vermont Association of Broadcasters Hall of Fame, for good reason.

Messner, who is expected to leave the airwaves in November, combines the expertise and institutional knowledge of legendary Alabama meteorologist James Spann, the youthful enthusiasm of Washington DC meteorologist and storm chaser Matthew Cappucchi and the warmth and good humor of Al Roker. 

He's long been called Smiling Town Messner because in every broadcast, he looks just so happy to be telling you what the weather will be like today. You can hear the smile on those occasions when he pops into radio station WIZN, often on Fridays to update you on the weekend forecast.

That happiness is infectious, and viewers know it.  As WPTZ points out, Messner was the winner in the annual Seven Days readers poll as the region's "Best Meteorologist" every year that category existed in that newspaper. 

In a statement released by WPTZ Tuesday, Messner said, in part, "I'm honored to have served my neighbors and our communities and to have the privilege to personally meet so many of our viewers throughout my 31 years at NBC5.  Your amazing support and trust have allowed my family to build a home and life in a place that we truly love. I'm forever thankful."

Unsurprisingly, tributes poured in Tuesday on the news of Messner's impending retirement.

"Tom's been a fixture in our homes and a patron to all that we love about our (Great) Lake Champlain. Tom, congrats on all that you have accomplished and on how you've done it.... with expertise, wit and class," U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy D-VT tweeted. 

Messner will continue on at WPTZ as Chief Meteorologist until late November.  He'll also make guest appearances on the television station from time to time.  He's not moving away, and will continue his very active role at Feeding Chittenden. 

Another TV Vermont weather icon,
Sharon Meyer, retired from her 
duties at WCAX back in June.

"This isn't really goodbye, it's I'll see you around," Messner said on a Tuesday WPTZ broadcast.

As noted, Messner's announcement is the second high profile Vermont television weather departure this year.  Sharon Meyer's long reign as the lead forecaster at WCAX-TV.

On air, Meyer always exuded both warmth and unflappability. Except when there were close lightning strikes.  She didn't seem to like those, which made her a lot smarter than most weather geeks I know, including me. 

Watching a Meyer on WCAX was like a friendly chat about the weather over tea with a trusted friend.  

Another reason why Meyer is such a Vermont broadcasting gem is because she loved to take us with her as she traveled Vermont and the the world, and brought us outdoors with her in sunshine and ugly storms.  Meyer is always so inviting on air. 

The legendary Stuart Hall picked Meyer to do the 11 p.m. weather at WCAX in 1986.  When Hall retired in 1990, Meyer became the lead weather person at WCAX, a role she dutifully continued until this June.

Like Messner, Meyer never really disappeared, thank goodness. We still see her on WCAX gardening segments and in other appearances. 

The departures of Messner and Meyer fortunately do not leave Vermont lacking in talented TV meteorologist.  I don't want to list them all, for fear of leaving somebody out, but we do remain in excellent hands with the on-air meteorological talent on the Green Mountain State's airwaves. 

Television stations in the Vermont market would be wise to do everything they can to keep these meteorologists here.