They told us months ago that this would be a very busy hurricane season and they weren't kidding!
Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes go in alphabetical order and we're just getting ready to get the "S" storm, which will be named Sally. They're almost out of letters, so they'll have to go to the Greek alphabet soon. That's only happened once before, in the extreme hurricane season of 2005.
 |
| LOTS of tropical storm type stuff to watch in the Atlantic Ocean, as this morning's National Hurricane Center map attests |
It just so happens that the likely next "S" storm, wannabe Sally, is the most immediate threat to the United States. All the other systems out there in the Atlantic Ocean are either going to miss us, or they are so distant nobody knows where they will end up in a week or so.
Let's get into Wannabe Sally, which was over the southern tip of Florida early this morning.
It hasn't quite gotten up to tropical storm strength yet, so as of this writing it had the unsexy name Tropical Depression 19. I'm still going to call it Wannabe Sally until it gets strong enough to officially get that name. That threshold should be reached later today or tonight.
Wannabe Sally will move westward and hit the very toasty waters of the Gulf of Mexico later today. From there, it will move slowly northwestward across the Gulf until it hits somewhere maybe in Louisiana, or Mississippi or nearby Tuesday or Wednesday.
Wannabe Sally will probably gradually strengthen all the way to landfall and it could become a hurricane by the time it reaches land.
The biggest risk from Wannabe Sally, so far at least, is its forward motion is quite slow. And it will be close enough to the Gulf Coast to dump heavy rain well before it reaches land.
This sets the stage for a lot of flooding. Slow moving tropical systems have caused some extreme flooding in recent years, Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017 being the most glaring example.
I'm not saying this will be as extreme as Harvey, but the Gulf Coast will want to watch out for what could be a big flood event midweek. Stay tuned!
If this heavy rain gets into southwestern Louisiana, it would be really bad. That area was completely trashed by Hurricane Laura a couple weeks back. Plus all that water left behind by Laura has triggered a mosquito outbreak that's so bad that the bugs are literally killing livestock by sucking too much blood out of them.
A foot or two of rain from Wannabe Sally in southwestern Louisiana wouldn't exactly help, would it?
Like I said, there's lots of other tropical stuff out there to keep track of. Here's a rundown:
Tropical Storm Paulette.
Paulette is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today and is threatening Bermuda.
This storm is way out in the central Atlantic Ocean and is moving northwestward toward Bermuda. It should be very close to that island late Sunday night or Monday as quite a strong hurricane, so they'll have to watch out for that.
After hitting or nearly hitting Bermuda, Paulette will turn northeastward and head off into the North Atlantic, missing the United States by a very wide margin.
Tropical Storm Rene
Rene is puttering around way out in the Atlantic, weak, disorganized and unsure where to go. For the next week or so at least, it's no threat to anybody. I suppose Rene could eventually get its act together and go somewhere and strengthen, but that's not in the cars for the next several days, if ever.
There's a decent chance that Rene could just dissipate
Another Disturbance
Another collection of showers and storms came off the west coast of Africa and into the Atlantic Ocean a couple days ago. It is almost certain to become a tropical storm or even hurricane. It's a long way from land. Nobody knows yet if this one will curve northward harmlessly away from land, or target the Caribbean or even the United States. So don't worry about this one, at least not yet.
Elsewhere:
Following the footsteps of "another disturbance" I just referenced, this one just came off the coast of Africa. Not sure what, if anything this will do.
In the western Gulf of Mexico, there's yet another disturbance well west of Wannabe Sally. I wouldn't worry about this one, at least for now.
No comments:
Post a Comment