Monday, September 14, 2020

Sally Threat, Atlantic Tropics Busy As They Can Get And A Frosty Vermont

 I'll get to the incredibly busy swarm of tropical storms and hurricanes out in the Atlantic Ocean in just a sec, but here's a heads up for us Vermonters. 

As this map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington shows,
low temperatures in Vermont will
be in the 30s tonight, with some upper
20s in the coldest hollows.

It's unfortunately time to start thinking about putting your gardens to bed for the fall.  At the very least, many of us should cover them up to protect them tonight. 

Frosts are coming to a fair number of towns in northern Vermont and New York tonight and early tomorrow morning. This one will be more widespread than the few scattered pockets we had Saturday. The chill will be deeper, too.

On Saturday. there were just a couple of frost advisories in the North East Kingdom and the Adirondacks.  And just a couple cold hollows actually got frost. 

Tonight, the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks are under a freeze warning, so that would be a crop killer in those areas unless you harvest today. It'll go below freezing there. 

A frost advisory is up for the rest of northern Vermont except the Champlain Valley. Remember, air temperature is usually measured five feet off the ground, but on clear, calm nights like what's expected tonight, the ground can be colder. 

So, if it's say, 35 degrees, you can still have a frost damaging your garden plants. 

Pretty much all of Vermont will be in the 30s by dawn tomorrow, except areas near Lake Champlain, which will stay up in the low to mid 40s. 

Even many valleys in southern Vermont could have a touch of frost. 

So take care of your plants!

It'll warm up a little during the rest of the week, but beware: Another cold shot is coming up late in the week and the weekend, and this one will be even chillier than the one we've got coming in now. Frost might be even more widespread in the weekend than it will be tonight. Even the Champlain Valley will be in play then.

Now on to much more dramatic weather:

HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORM SWARM

As of early this morning, there were five, count 'em five, hurricanes, tropical storms or tropical depressions in the Atlantic. That ties a record set in September, 1971 for the most simultaneous such storms on record.  

An incredibly busy map of the Atlantic Ocean
with numerous tropical storms or things
that are close to tropical storms.

So far, only one of these storms is threatening the United States, but that one still looks like it will cause a lot of damage along the Gulf Coast. I'll take all these one at a time, in no particular order, except for the most dangerous one, Tropical Storm Sally

SALLY:

Tropical Storm Sally last night looked like it got more intense, but so far, the more vibrant thunderstorms that blossomed with the storm last night haven't translated all that much toward a more powerful storm. 

Sustained winds were 65 mph with Sally early this morning, up just a little from yesterday. But it was still expected to strengthen into a hurricane. 

Even if it doesn't, Tropical Storm Sally would still be a nasty beast for the Gulf Coast. It's forward motion is still quite slow, and it will probably slow down even more.  That gives the storm a big opportunity to create a huge storm surge along parts of the Gulf Coast.

The slow forward motion would give Sally a chance to dump a tremendous amount of rain on part of the Gulf Coast.  Some spot might get close to 20 inches of rain. 

There's also the possibility that Sally could abruptly strengthen today before it makes landfall sometime on Tuesday. 

The one glimmer of good news with Sally is the forecast track is a little east of what it was yesterday. That means impacts to New Orleans might be a little less.

PAULETTE:

Talk about finding a needle in a haystack! The island of Bermuda is just a 20-mile wide speck in the 2,000 mile wide Atlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, Hurricane Paulette was able to make a "perfect" track so the eye of the storm went right over Bermuda this morning. 

Paulette had top winds of 90 mph when it hit.  I haven't heard many reports on how Bermuda is faring with such a direct hit, but the island is pretty resilient and well-prepared for hurricanes, so that's good news. 

Hurricane Paulette will strengthen for a time as it heads northeastward away from Bermuda. It will eventually weaken in the cold waters of the North Atlantic in a few days.  This storm is no threat to the United States, aside from rip currents on East Coast beaches.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE

Rene was a tropical storm for awhile, but weakened to a depression as it struggled with strong upper level winds. It was barely hanging on as a depression this morning as there are a few thunderstorms around it.  As of 11 a.m Rene was pretty much gone. Yawn. 

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY

Teddy blossomed into a tropical storm last night. It's still in its formative stages way out in the Atlantic Ocean with top winds of just 40 mph.  

The bad news is Teddy is expected to become a major hurricane with top winds of 115 mph once it reaches the central Atlantic well southeast of Bermuda. The very good news is that Teddy is no immediate threat to land, and stands a very good chance of staying out to sea away from populated areas. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #21

This little thing formed overnight off the west coast of Africa. It was upgraded to Tropical Storm Vicku late this morning, but it is not expected to last long.  Vicky will get blasted by strong upper level winds. Don't worry about this one. 

Another disturbance just emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from Africa. This one stands a good chance of becoming a tropical storm eventually.   

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