Friday, September 18, 2020

Vermonters Should Worry About Frost/Freeze, NOT Hurricane Teddy

 Just a friendly reminder to my fellow Green Mountain Boys and Girls that if you didn't get any frost this morning, you're sure to get a frost and freeze tonight, tomorrow night and the night after.  Protect those outdoor plants if you can. 


Sunday morning will be the coldest.  The coldest hollows could get down to near 20 degrees! Most of the rest of us will be between 26 and 32 degrees. Brrrr! These readings will be near record lows. 

Meanwhile, there might be a few of you out there who heard or saw reports that powerful Hurricane Teddy, way out in the Atlantic Ocean, will take a hard left turn and slam New England next week. 

Be assured that No. Nope. Uh-Uh.  That's not going to happen.  Unless you live up in places like Nova Scotia, Canada. There could be some real problems up there. 

Hurricane Teddy is a beast. As of early this morning, it had top winds of 130 mph, making it a Category 4 storm. It is forecast to be somewhere near Bermuda by Monday morning. That would make it the second time in a week that Bermuda has been lashed by a hurricane in a week. 

By the way, since the EXTREMELY glitchy and "improved" Blogger won't let me caption images today, the photo in this post is a satellite view of Hurricane Teddy out in the open Atlantic Ocean this morning. 

Usually, when a hurricane goes near Bermuda, it afterwards races northeastward out to sea and dies in the cold North Atlantic waters. That's what Hurricane Paulette did last week. 

Especially a couple days ago, the European weather model suggested that Hurricane Teddy would take a hard left turn and slam into New England, heading at us from the east. 

This had echoes of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. You might remember that the European Model was the first by far to tell us that Hurricane Sandy, off the United States east coast, would take a hard left turn and hit New Jersey.  the other weather models didn't pick up on this idea until late in the game. 

Sandy did hit New Jersey and New York, with devastating results. 

Everybody marveled at how accurate the European model was. 

That was then and this is now. For some reason, the European weather model has really struggled with predicting tropical storms and hurricanes this year. 

As of this morning, the European model was really starting to fall in line with the other models. 

True, the European is sort of,  kinda picked up on something A trough of low pressure off the East Coast, plus that massive high pressure system that's causing our frosty weekend, would not allow Teddy to race off to the northeast like Paulette and so many of her siblings. 

Instead, it seems like Teddy will head due north and possibly slam Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.  That will be bad for them, of course, and I hope the forecast changes for their sake 

Teddy might cause some wind and rain for Downeast Maine. It will also cause some rip currents, higher than normal tides and rip currents on New England coastal beaches. 

Also, since tides are already on the high side over the next few days due to astronomical cycles, there is likely to be a fair amount of beach erosion, unfortunately, from Maine to at least as far south as New Jersey. 

For us in Vermont, it appears the worst that Teddy would do to us is throw a few clouds at us, and maybe create some steady, but not strong northerly breezes.

Elsewhere, another  tropical storm is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's expected to meander around aimlessly for the next few days. 

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