A Few Changes To The Vermont Forecast: Less Cold, Some More Snow?

Forecast upper air map for Tuesday, a forecast model
called the GFS. Polar Vortex is in the Canadian prairies,
directing Arctic air into the U.S. Plains. It also
creates a southwest flow over the east (follow the 
parallel lines) so it's a bit milder in our
neck of the woods. 

 This will seem odd, given that there's still a little ugly patchy freezing drizzle as I write early this morning, but I'm issuing a Gorgeous Weather Advisory for Vermont later today.  

Yes, it's cloudy as of 8 a.m., but here in St. Albans, I can see blue sky approaching from the west, so:

The Gorgeous Weather Advisory is in effect from late morning until sunset today. 

A combination of clearing skies, relatively mild temperatures and light winds is expected.  People are advised to go outdoors and play in the fresh snow.  

Temperatures in a few spots might get high enough to create favorable conditions for snowball creation. Because of the sunshine and bright white snow, sun glasses are advised.

OK, now that I have that out of my system, on to a few changes in the Vermont forecast.

The Arctic air I've been talking about for the upcoming week has been postponed by a few days.  

A big piece of that famous Polar Vortex is setting up near Hudson Bay, Canada.  At first, it will drift westward toward the Canadian Prairies. 

This setup will create a dip in the jet stream to our west, over the Great Lakes. This will in turn direct the Arctic Air into the Plains. 

The air will then turn east, and northeastward toward us.  But in doing so, it will have a chance to warm up greatly as it mixes with milder air to the south and east. 

The result would leave us with average weather for February. Nothing bitter at all, just high in the 20s to near 30 and lows in the single numbers and teens.  Pretty nice, actually. 

Since the air flow is from the southwest, this will enable quick, small storms to zip by, giving us several chances of light snow next week. 

A piece of the Polar Vortex zips east to Quebec by next 
weekend, according to the forecast, anyway. That's
when we'd get our shot of Arctic air in Vermont.

Signs do point toward the awful, Arctic air to finally reach us next weekend as the Polar Vortex turns back east toward northern and central Quebec, eventually. So we're not out of the woods. 

Before we get to all that, we have two weather systems to get through. 

One, tomorrow, will throw down a bit of snow, especially in the mountains.  Generally, expect a dusting to three inches of snow, depending upon where you are. 

Forecasters still expect a squirt of mild air to come with this, so temperatures  in the valleys will probably get above freezing for a few hours.

Saturday looks OK.  There might be a little snow Sunday and Monday, but no big deal.  As mentioned yesterday, there had been signs we might get a big nor'easter Sunday night. 

That prospect went away yesterday, but latest guidance is now showing this storm edging a little closer to New England than thought yesterday. If this trend continues, southeastern Vermont could get a little extra snow, but at this point, definitely don't count on that. It's looking iffy to say the least.