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| Latest update snow prediction map from National Weather Service in South Burlington. Still looking at 8-12 inches north, but the 12 inches most likely near Canadian border. Lots of sleet and freezing rain far south. Some sleet could make to or even north of Route 2. |
The rather dire situation in Texas got worse today as power remained out for more than 2 million Texans amid record cold and wind chills around zero.
We're still expecting a decent winter storm here in Vermont, with some more changes in the forecast. More on that in a bit, but first we should deal with the national drama.
In Texas, people are in pretty dire straights in freezing homes. According to the Texas Tribune:
"The state's electric grid operator lost control of the power supply Monday morning as 2 million Texas households didn't have heat or other electric appliances working at home as a massive winter storm delivered freezing temperatures across the state.
When the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, began implementing rolling blackouts at 1:25 a.m. Monday, the outages were intended to be implemented on a rolling basis - up to 45 minutes per affected area, according to the ERCO."
People are in danger as a result. Medical devices aren't working. Temperatures inside some Texas houses are now subfreezing. Pipes are freezing and bursting. This is a critical crisis for Texas, especially since the power outages are expected to last at least into tomorrow. Overnight lows in Texas will range from 10 below to 10 above, so this is very dangerous.
About 90 to 95 of the homes in Galveston were without power Monday. With all those freezing pipes, locals say the damage could be worse those hurricanes that are more common than winter storms on the Texas coast.
Meanwhile, normally busy downtown Houston was a ghost town. Ice covered freeways were empty, which was a good thing since travel is so dangerous.
A total of 140 million Americans were under winter storm warnings and advisories, including us few souls up here in Vermont.
Since we had to put in every kind of misery possible, severe thunderstorms and some possible tornadoes were breaking out late this afternoon in the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia
VERMONT IMPACTS
The trend we talked about this morning, where the sleet and freezing rain first predicted for southern Vermont, has been creeping northward in the forecast.
Basically, the trends have been toward a little warmer and more mixed precipitation with tonight and tomorrow's storm, and a little colder and snowier with the expected storm Thursday night and Friday.
As advertised earlier, everyone will start with a good thump of snow later tonight. There has already been some periods of light snow, which had been expected. More areas of light snow and flurries will continue this evening before things ramp up later on.
The heaviest precipitation is expected between around midnight and 9 a.m. Tuesday. That part of the forecast hasn't changed either. The Tuesday morning commute is going to be a mess. In the north, snow will come down at a rate of an inch or two per hour early Tuesday, so that will be impossible for the snow plows and salt shakers to fully keep ahead of.
Stay home tomorrow if you can!
What's different in the forecast now is the sleet might now mix in all the way north to Route 2 or even a bit beyond that for a time Tuesday morning. Also the precipitation will lighten and maybe turn to freezing drizzle for a time Tuesday afternoon all the way to the Canadian border. Later in the day, it will switch back to snow showers.
Further south, sleet and freezing rain will dominate after the initial thump of snow tonight. Unlike this morning, I'm now worried that enough freezing rain will accumulate on trees and power lines in far southern Vermont to start breaking branches and lines
This issue won't be as bad as points further south where a destructive ice storm is likely. But scattered power outages are possible tomorrow, especially south of a Springfield to Bennington line.
Overall, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is still forecasting 8 to 12 inches of new snow north of Route 2, but the highest chances of a foot are right near the Canadian border. Near Route 2, sleet could hold down accumulations a little bit.
Further south, through central Vermont, it'll be more like four to eight inches, but all that sleet and some freezing rain will make that accumulation terribly heavy and hard to clean up.
And we'll write far southern Vermont off as an ugly, icy mess. As little as two inches of schmutz and ice will accumulate in the valleys near Bennington and Brattleboro.
Since it will stay cold until the next storm, any ice on trees in southern Vermont will remain for the next storm. If that next storm has freezing rain or wet snow, there could be some real trouble with power failures and broken tree branches. Freezing rain and wet snow is most likely in the south with that second storm.
That said, the trend continues to be a little bit toward more snow and less ice Thursday and Friday. That trend could still reverse itself, so I wouldn't bet on anything in particular toward the end of the week. Just expect a very busy winter week around here.
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