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| Some changes to the snow forecast from the NWS Burlington this evening. Northern and central Vermont snow totals increased to near 10 inches, give or take. Far southern Vermont totals now down under 6 inches due to expected mixed precipitation. |
A watch means "maybe" and a warning means "pretty much definitely" So let's get into it.
STORM #1
There's a few changes to the forecast for this storm, compared to what we saw this morning.
Snow accumulations now look to be a little more than what was expected earlier north of Route 4 and a little less than forecasts earlier today south of Route 4.
It looks - at least for now - like a good eight to 12 inches will come down, especially north of a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line.
The higher totals central and north are because it appears there will be slightly better lift in the atmosphere than previous forecasts suggested. The better the lift in the atmosphere, the heavier the snow comes down.
NWS Burlington says snow fall rates will be a healthy inch per hour or a little more during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday and into the time of the morning commute.
Which means say home Tuesday morning if you can.
The slightly reduced totals in the south are because forecasters are now more confident that those areas will have sleet and freezing rain, after an initial hard thump of snow.
On the bright side, most of the mix will be sleet, which is less hazardous that freezing rain, which clings to everything and causes a lot of damage. The layer of cold air near the surface will be thick enough, so that if snowflakes melt on the way down due to warm air aloft, they'll have time to re-freeze before they hit the ground.
Far southern Vermont is more likely to see some freezing rain, and it still looks like damaging freezing rain will hit from inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic states through southern New York into southwester New England.
As far as timing goes, an initial period of snow out ahead of the main storm should come through from late tomorrow morning to evening with maybe one or two inches of snow. You'll want to be careful driving around Monday afternoon.
The main show would start Monday night, with the heaviest snow ending by late morning Tuesday. Lighter snow seems likely to continue during Tuesday afternoon.
Quiet and cold-ish weather will come back for Wednesday and the first part of Thursday before the next big event arrives.
STORM #2
The next storm, Thursday night and Friday could be a real doozy. It's coming with oodles of moisture, so whatever comes out of the sky could come down quite hard.
The question remains: Exactly what will come out of the sky? We're in for either a whole bunch of snow, a lot of mixed precipitation, or even rain.
It'll be a mess whatever happens.
The large storm will come out of the Gulf of Mexico and head north or northeast. If, as some forecasts indicate, the storm will head due north and pass by a little to the west of us. If that happens, we get a thump of snow, then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain, and even some plain rain in the valleys. Yuck.
If other forecasting models are right, the storm will get shoved east a bit or redevelop along the coast. If that happens, Vermont will get mostly snow out of the storm, especially north and west.
We simply don't know.
We do know that snow banks, already decent sized, will get a lot taller as the week goes by. There's also a bright side: Vermont is completely escaping the core of the frigid air with this. Had we gotten a direct shot, we would have had several nights in 20s below zero afternoons that remained in the minus numbers.
Instead, it was a little cold late in the week, and average going forward.
MORE NATIONAL IMPACTS
Nationwide the winter weather continued unabated and punishing. The entire states of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas were under a winter storm warning. As of 3:30 p.m., the winter storm warnings extended roughly 2,245 miles form around Albuquerque, New Mexico to around Newport, Vermont.
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| Damage from freezing rain in Oregon over the weekend. The winter storms affected almost all of the nation. Photo from Oregon DOT |
It also still looks like the first of the two storms will drop a continuous swath of dangerous freezing rain from Texas to coastal Maine. All of this freezing rain is and will cause travel nightmares. In many spots, it will be enough to cause tree damage and power outages.
Largely because this siege of winter weather is covering almost all of the Lower 48, is lasting a long time and is hitting many populated areas, it will surely cause more than a billion dollars in damage.
This storm and frigid weather is screwing up the battle against Covid, too. Vaccine shipments to Texas will be delayed by three or four days. Outdoor vaccination sites in Texas are understandably shut down, though indoor ones will remain open, according to CNN.
A major Covid vaccination site in Portland Oregon was shut down Sunday due to an ice storm there.
It's clear by the large number of traffic crashes in the South that people in those areas do not have experience driving in winter weather.
And a few are stupid. One pickup truck doing 90 mph (!!) on an ice covered Oklahoma highway slammed into a salt truck. No word on injuries.
It looks like that fatal pileup in Fort Worth Texas last week is doomed to repeat itself in some shape or form. There are already early reports of a big fiery pileup on Interstate 44 in Oklahoma and another huge multi-vehicle crash on Interstate 10 near El Paso, Texas on Sunday.
Let's be careful out there!
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