Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Rough Vermont Commute This Morning, Snowy Times Thru Wednesday, Storm Over-Performs Elsewhere

Snow had temporarily tapered off in St. Albans, Vermont
as of 7:45 a.m. this morning, though some big fluffy flakes
were still coming down. Only 1.8 inches here so far, 
but definitely more on the way. 
Remarkably for such a complicated storm system, the snow in Vermont so far is working out just as expected.  

Beyond this morning, the forecasts for the rest of the event haven't changed either.

The storm is well-behaved so far in Vermont, despite surprises and more drama than forecast elsewhere in the Northeast. More on that in a minute. 

As expected, a band of heavier snow was working its way northward and northeastward through Vermont as dawn broke today. 

 If you didn't leave early for work this morning you probably regretted it. Snow plows are out, but continued falling snow is making roads icky, especially north. 

The core of the snow band had already moved into northeastern New York by 7:30 a.m. but it was still snowing lightly, but still steadily across most of northwestern Vermont. 

Some early reports of snow in Vermont include 3.5 inches in Rutland and four inches in Montpelier and Waitsfield. As much as 5 inches was reported near Wallingford. As of 7:30 a.m., my place at St. Albans, Vermont had only received 1.8 inches of new snow, but of course, more is on the way. 

The snow is already tapering off, at least for awhile and especially south and east, and the snow will become much lighter north for a time starting later this morning. 

That's because what was the main storm that caused havoc in and near New Jersey and southern New York yesterday has something known as a dry slot - a tongue of dry air that often gets pulled into a storm's southeastern flank - is moving north through New England. 

The dry slot that will affect much of Vermont  part of today isn't all that dry. It will remain cloudy with patchy light snow or even a few drops of freezing drizzle for a time today. (Don't worry about the freezing drizzle. If it happens, it will be very light and very spotty, and won't amount to anything).

Round two of this storm will start later this afternoon.  The old storm south of Long Island is trading its energy in to a new storm southeast of Cape Cod. Normally, a storm that far out to sea would mean not much happens in Vermont.

This time, though, this new storm will keep the snow going in much of Vermont, albeit not exactly with any extreme conditions. 

It's all about the strength and path of this new storm. First of all, it's energetic, as one can tell by the lightning associated with it. That means it will strengthen and move northward toward the coast of Maine.

This is what's been expected for a couple days now, so the forecast stays the same. Snow will rebloom across much of Vermont in the mid to late afternoon. Just in time for the trip back home from work if you are commuting! 

So, expect the roads to kind of suck this evening amid widespread light snow. We'll probably be  getting into some blowing and drifting snow, too, as north winds pick up. 

It will snow all night, except maybe in southern valleys, where it won't amount to much more than flurries. It won't snow heavily overnight and well into Wednesday. But the long period of light snow will add up to several more inches of fluff. 

Forecasts, then, remain the same as we've been telling you. Expect storm totals from last night through Wednesday to be in the 6 to 12 inch range.  The northeastern Adirondacks are in the sweet spot for snow with this, so they'll be over a foot. The Green Mountains will do pretty well with this, too.

We're still looking at a "snow hole" in the Connecticut River Valley roughly between Thetford and Lyndonville, with likely less than six inches total there. 

The storm, snowy as it is, seems to be turning out to be something quite manageable for us Vermonters. Elsewhere, it was a different story. 

MID-ATLANTIC HUMDINGER

Yesterday, this storm really let loose with the snow in parts of southern New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, some parts of Massachusetts and elsewhere.

Newton, New Jersey was buried beneath 32 inches of snow. Nazareth, Pennsylvania wasn't far behind with 31 inches. Harrison, New York had two feet of fresh powder. Sabillasville, Maryland had 20.5 inches, Wilmington, Massachusetts clocked in with 10 inches and Danbury, Connecticut reported 19 inches.  

New York City had its biggest snowstorm in years, with 16.3 inches reported in Central Park, Manhattan. 

Storm surge flooding was a problem in New Jersey and Long Island. Parts of the New Jersey coastline had their fourth highest tides on record, after Hurricanes Sandy and Irene, and an intense 1992 nor'easter.

By the way, rough weather isn't over after this storm.

An Arctic cold blast will envelop most of the Lower 48 next week. There are signs of more storminess this coming weekend in the Northeast, but how that develops remains pretty unclear at this point. 

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