Storm Forecast For Vermont Stays Steady, But Some Big Questions Remain

As of this morning, projected snow accumulations are 
holding steady. Areas in yellow should get at least six
inches of snow.  Areas in orange are forecast to 
receive at least eight inches of snow.

 It's another frigid morning here in most of Vermont. Skies remained mostly clear overnight, which allowed temperatures for most of us to go below zero again.  

Some of us were in the teens below zero, with a couple spots in the Northeast Kingdom down around 20 below again. 

Don't worry about the clear skies. The snow is still coming. And much of the forecast for snow in Vermont remains on track. 

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain in place for a general four to 10 inch snowfall for most of the state. A few favored places will probably get a little more than that. However, the expectation remains for a mid-sized, but rather long lasting storm. 

You'll see the sun slowly, slowly fade behind high clouds, which will thicken up toward sunset. Then, a band of snow will start inching northward overnight. 

That's the first band I talked about last night. It's sort of a warm front pushing northward from a stormy mess that will probably be south of Long Island by tonight. 

The way the National Weather Service in South Burlington is timing it out, the band will getting into far southern Vermont close to sunset today; then be over Route 4 by midnight or earlier;   up to Route 2 within a few hours before dawn, and at the Canadian border by 8 a.m. 

It will probably snow fairly hard under this initial band of snow which means the Tuesday morning commute will be tricky for whoever's driving to work in the morning. The best accumulations will be on east facing slopes, but overall the first band should give us generally two to six inches of snow, perhaps more than that in the southern Green Mountains. 

The snow still looks like it will lighten up for awhile Tuesday. 

The storm that is causing this first band is forecast to sit and spin south of Long Island for awhile, then a new piece - a new storm in this conglomeration of storminess in the Northeast will form and move slowly northward near the coast of Maine. 

This will be what's responsible for a new period of steady snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the NWS in South Burlington sees it, how close this thing comes to the coast will dictate how much moisture gets pulled back toward Vermont. Which means its position will determine how much additional snow we get.

A closer approach to Maine means more snow in Vermont, mostly in the north and mountains. A position further east would give us less snow. 

In any event, it should all taper off during the day Wednesday. 

There are other wild cards. If the flow around the storm when it's in Maine forces the air flow to converge in the Champlain Valley - squeezed between the Adirondacks and Green Mountains - the accumulation could be on the high end of forecasts there. 

Parts of the upper Connecticut Valley, in and around St. Johnsbury, could get cheated in this storm. The  White Mountains in New Hampshire might block moisture from the initial band of snow, and the Green Mountains might block wet air and snow coming in from the northwest during the second part of the storm. 

FURTHER SOUTH

Meanwhile, that storm south of Long Island is really crushing parts of New Jersey, the New York City metro area, the Catskills and southwestern New England with heavy snow. The snow is expected to come down at a rate of 2 inches per hour for a good part of today in these areas. The total accumulation will close in on two feet in some parts of this area

One really negative effect this storm is having is on Covid vaccinations. We need to get people vaccinated as quickly as possible, especially with more highly contagious versions of the virus gaining steam.

Unfortunately, vaccination centers in seven states will be closed today because of the storm. 

Strong winds will complicate efforts to remove snow from streets and highways from Maryland to Maine. 

Coastal flooding continues to be likely today in New Jersey, Long Island, and later on, parts of the New England coast. 

By the way, more storminess is likely late in the upcoming week and next weekend, but we don't know yet what kind of storminess we're talking about, how intense or weak it might be, or exactly where it will hit, so stay tuned.