Laura's Destruction, Storm Surge Issues, VERY Accurate Forecast, Bad Gulf Luck And More

The last of Hurricane Laura faded over Arkansas last night, and its remnants will produce potentially flooding rains over parts of the Tennessee Valley today. 

Flooding and wind destruction Thursday in 
Cameron, Louisiana. Photo by David J.
Phillip/AP

Hurricane Laura will be remembered mostly for its extreme wind damage.  At least six deaths have so far been attributed to Laura.  That's a huge tragedy, but the death toll is pretty low for such a terrible storm.  Evacuations and people heeding warnings probably very much contributed to the relatively low death toll. 

Now that Laura is going down in the history books, I have some final thoughts and answers to some questions.

STORM SURGE 

Very strong hurricanes like Laura of course produce a lot of wind damage, but these storms also contain terrible, deadly storm surges.

There was a nasty storm surge with Laura, but it wasn't as bad as feared, and hit mostly unpopulated areas.

As the Weather Channel and other outlets point out, a few factors came together to prevent any confirmed 20 foot storm surges, the type that had been predicted.

First, Hurricane Laura came ashore at Cameron, Louisiana and moved north into Lake Charles, causing all that wind damage. However, the worst storm surge in a northward moving hurricane is immediately east of the eye. Strong southerly winds in that part of a hurricane would drive water onshore into the Gulf Coast. 

Because the hurricane moved directly over Cameron and Lake Charles, the hurricane force winds came out of the east as the eye approached the coast. The wind wasn't pushing the water onshore as much as it would have if the wind had been from the south. 

The result was about a nine foot storm surge in these two cities rather than 20 feet.  The storm surge probably was higher to the east of Laura's path. However, areas where the wind blasted ashore from the south was low, swampy ground where hardly anybody lives and there are almost no tidal gauges. 

Storm surges were higher with Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008.  Those two hurricanes were bigger in area than Hurricane Laura.  A larger storm in size would push more water onshore than a smaller one. 

BAD GULF LUCK

A worst case scenario for hurricanes is if they are already strong and still strengthening as they make landfall. A hurricane that's growing stronger has a better ability to bring more powerful winds a few thousand feet overhead down to the surface than a weakening hurricane would.

In three of the past four years, very powerful hurricanes were strengthening as they hit the Gulf Coast. Category 4 Hurricane Harvey did that in 2017.  So did Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018. Now we have Hurricane Laura, Category 4 and just below Category 5 strength hitting Louisiana.

I think the Gulf Coast has had enough hurricanes for awhile.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ROCKS!

The National Hurricane Center always does great work during hurricane season, but with Hurricane Laura, they really shined. 

Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict. Their paths and strength can veer off in all kinds of directions.  This time, the NHC pretty much nailed it. 

Three and a half days before landfall, the NHC said Hurricane Laura would make landfall somewhere near Cameron, Louisiana.  The exact position of Laura's landfall was just 0.6 miles from that prediction.  A forecast of that accuracy was basically an impossible feat but the meteorologists at the NHC pulled it off. That's pretty incredible. 

Forecasting a hurricane's strength is even more of a formidable challenge.  For at least four days in advance, the NHC said Hurricane Laura would strengthen quickly once it reached the Gulf of Mexico.  The NHC plays things conservatively, so at first they weren't publicly forecasting a Category 4 storm at first, but made it clear that residents of Louisiana and Texas definitely had something to worry about.

I'm sure this saved a lot of lives. 

LAURA'S SENSE OF IRONY

A Confederate statue called the South's Defenders Memorial Monument that consisted of a flag bearing soldier looking over the local courthouse lawn.  It's been creating quite a bit of controversy in Lake Charles, but the county government recently voted to leave the monument in place. That didn't thrill the large Black Lives Matter contingent in the region.

However, Hurricane Laura knocked the soldier off the pedestal, and by Thursday, the figure was a broken mess on the court house lawn, along with the rest of the debris. I guess that takes care of that!

UP NEXT

Hurricane season is in full swing, and it ain't over yet.  The National Hurricane Center is watching two systems way out in the Atlantic.  They are not yet anywhere near a threat, and might or might not develop. But the chances are there, so we'll have to watch those little storms in the next week in case they develop into new hurricanes

NEW ENGLAND STORMS

As expected, severe storms developed over New York and southwestern New England yesterday.  Some storms developed into supercells, and tornado warnings went out. 

One storm in particular produced what I think is a likely tornado around the adjacent towns of North Haven, Hamden and Branford, Connecticut. There are reports of major damage to houses and widespread tree damage.

I'm pretty sure National Weather Service meteorologists will be investigating that area today to determine for sure whether it was a tornado or destructive straight line winds.

At first, it looked like the next storm for us here in Vermont would just be a chilly, steady rain on Saturday.  Some indications indicate the storm might now go by just to our northwest and lift a warm front to near or just north of the Canadian border.

If that happens, there's a low but real chance we could have weather problems similar to Connecticut's on Thursday,  If we get some clearing in the afternoon - which is iffy - that would destabilize the air. 

There will be strong winds aloft, which would change direction and speed with height. If the skies clear, some strong thunderstorms could develop, and some of those could start rotating. Worst case scenario would be a few severe thunderstorms and a very slight risk of a brief tornado.

This, as noted, is extremely iffy, and we'll have a better sense of what might go on by tomorrow morning. 

Marco Goes Pffft, Laura Shows Resiliance, Gulf On Alert, Still Storm Risk Here

Well, the good news, I suppose, is there won't be two simultaneous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico after all, and southern Louisiana might not get two tropical storms.    

In this dawn photo of the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Marco is actually centered
in the clear air southwest of the blob of
storms near the Florida Panhandle. Tropical
Storm Laura can be seen in the lower right 
of the photo

This news sounds terrific, but it's not all that great for people along parts of the Gulf Coast. 

Here's today's update on the tropical storms, and of course, things will keep changing. 

Tropical Storm Marco briefly achieved hurricane status Sunday afternoon in the central Gulf of Mexico.  That turned out to be its heyday.  Strong upper level winds are tearing Marco apart, and even if it does make it to shore as a tropical storm, it won't exactly be a powerhouse. 

Marco is now expected to fall completely apart within a couple of days, but will still dump some heavy rains on those areas.

The problem, though, is Marco's brief stint as a hurricane stirred up a push of water which is heading toward low, swampy southern Louisiana. 

Then there's Laura.  It's certainly a resilient little bugger.  It went over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and is new around Cuba. Being over land so much would have killed many tropical storms. But not Laura. She has pulled every trick up her sleeve to keep some of her circulation over water, or just rejigger itself so that the center kept shifting back toward water. 

The result this morning was a Tropical Storm Laura with highest sustained winds of 65 mph.  The center of this storm will skirt the southern coast of Cuba today as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico, so Laura should maintain its strength for now. 

Once it gets into  the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, look out! The very warm waters of the Gulf plus the fact this thing will finally be moving away from land will give it an opportunity to blossom into a full blown hurricane. 

The question now is, how big and bad of a hurricane?  The signals are still mixed.  On the one hand, we'e seen other resilient tropical storms go full bore monsters in the Gulf, with devastating results. On the other hand, upper level winds or dry air could temper the power of this storm.

It seems like we should lean toward a nasty, stronger Laura, because upper level winds, at least on Tuesday and Wednesday won't be gusty enough to interfere with development, and that hot water will certainly contribute. 

Of course, the big issue is where will Laura go? Unfortunately, all bets are that it will make a United States landfall.  Early guesses suggest it would hit somewhere near the Louisiana-Texas border.  But anyone between the central Texas coast and Alabama should watch closely.   This could easily be the nation's worst hurricane so far this year.  

SEVERE STORMS HERE

Once again yesterday, there were a couple reports of severe storms in Vermont, as expected. Most of the rough weather, though hit southern New Hampshire and parts of Massachusetts.

Still, there were reports of numerous trees and power lines down in Springfield, Vermont, and penny sized hail in Benson.

Some showers skirted the northern border areas of Vermont overnight. Here in St. Albans, I got 0.3 inches of rain. Not a huge amount, but welcome nonetheless.  Rainfall in August has been OK, but it will take a lot to get over the dry conditions from the spring and earlier summer. When I dig into the soil around my house, I hit dry, dusty earth just an inch or two below the wetter surface.

There will be some more chances of rain, though no earth-shattering amounts over the next few days.  It looked like another band of showers with a couple embedded lightning strikes was approaching my area in far northwestern Vermont as of 8:15 this morning, but it remains to be seen whether they will hold together.

(UPDATE: Yes, the showers held together and we got some more rain in St. Albans).

Once again, some of the storms that develop this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe in a handful of locations.  As has been the case, very few of them will be damaging, but one or two spots could see trouble. It's hard to say who would get nailed, as these really are hit and miss, by definition.

A strong cold front will come through tomorrow morning or early afternoon at the latest.  The timing - in the morning - would limit the amount of severe weather with this front.  Thunderstorms usually peak in intensity in the late afternoon or evening. 

Still, the cold front could bring a few strong to severe storms to us as it passes through, so watch for that. 

The coldest air since spring is set to come in behind the front, with highs Wednesday for many of us only reaching the 60s.  That's not super cold for late August, but it is somewhat chilly, as we haven't seen anything like this in a long time. 

The last time the high temperature in Burlington failed to get above 70 degree was June 14.

Two Hurricanes In Three Days In Louisiana? Also Some Severe Threat Up Here

The forecast has turned pretty ominous for Louisiana, as it's now possible that two hurricanes will strike its coast within three days of each other. 

Here's one forecast map that shows Laura 
and Marco both hitting Louisiana in the
upcoming days.

Tropical Storm Marco is spinning in the Gulf of Mexico and could strike Louisiana as a hurricane on Monday.  Tropical Storm Laura, near Hispaniola this morning, is forecast to strike basically the same spot on Thursday. 

While there's still a lot of uncertainty as to whether this will play out like I describe, such back to back strikes in the same spot are really rare. And really dangerous.

 

If it happens, both storm surge and inland flooding caused by Marco would still be going on when Laura arrives. 

Of course, as more forecast information comes in, the path and strength of the two storms could be quite different than currently predicted when the event actually unfolds. But whatever happens, it ain't good news.

First up is Tropical Storm Marco. Its top winds early this morning were 70 mph, just under hurricane strength.  It is heading steadily northwest toward Louisiana.  Rather strong upper level winds are interfering with Marco's development. 

Marco ramped up pretty quickly on Saturday, but then leveled off.  The Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm, so that would help with development, but the upper level winds would probably keep Marco at Category 1 strength, with top winds at landfall just near 75 to 80 mph. 

The real danger from Marco, despite its small size, is the storm surge and heavy rain that would prime the pump for Laura. 

Tropical Storm Laura is hanging in there surprisingly well, given its interaction with land over Hispaniola.  If a tropical storm is over land, it often weakens, especially in mountainous places like that island. 

Laura is larger in size than Marco, so that is keeping some of its thunderstorms over water, which is helping it stay together. 

This tropical storm probably won't get much stronger for the next couple of days as it goes over or near the length of Cuba.

There are definite worries as to what would happen with Laura once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. Those strongish upper level winds that will have interfered with Marco will be mostly gone. Those very warm Gulf waters have the potential to ramp Laura up into a monster hurricane.  We don't know for sure, but it's definitely worth watching. 

In any event, 2020, is the year in which everything seems to go wrong, so these twin potential hurricanes are par for the course. 

NEW ENGLAND SEVERE WEATHER

Yesterday, a tornado touched down on Lake Winnipesaukee in central New Hampshire, and likely caused damage in shoreline Wolfsboro, New Hampshire. 

No severe storms that I'm aware of hit Vermont yesterday, but I guess we are in a pattern.  There were a couple severe storm reports in Rutland County Friday, and we have a low but real chance of more severe weather today, Monday and Tuesday. 

Some showers and a few lightning strikes were in northern Vermont and northern New York this morning as a weak weather front lifts toward the Canadian border.  This front will  probably set the stage for more storms this afternoon.  A few could be strong or even locally severe, with sharp wind gusts being the primary threat. 

The same set up looks like it will hang around on Monday, so it's basically rinse and repeat.  For both days, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That means there could be a few brief, isolated severe storms, but nothing super widespread. 

It's beginning to look like more of a severe weather outbreak will hit the Northeast on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front moving into the region. 

There's a lot of question as to whether we here in Vermont will get any severe storms Tuesday and if so to what extent. 

At this point, the cold front seems like it wants to come through  the Green Mountain State in the morning, To get widespread severe storms, a cold front should come through in the afternoon or evening. That gives a chance for the atmosphere to heat up, making the air less stable and more prone to strong storms. 

That heating won't have a chance to occur if the front comes through in the morning.  The cold front looks like it will be strong enough to create rambunctious storms, even if it comes through in the morning.  If the front is delayed until afternoon, watch out!

As it is, we know that cold front won't come through until later in the day in places south and east of us, so that could turn out to be interesting. 

 

California Fires, Smoke, Laura, Marco, Storms And Us

 Wildfires in California continue to burn through much of the San Francisco Bay area and northern and central parts of the state.  So, once again, there's another extreme fire season out west.  

No end in sight with massive 
California wildfires

Vox has a great explainer as to why this week's wildfires are so extreme and weird.  It started with that very rare lightning barrage last weekend across northern California. It's really dry out there and those thunderstorms had very little rain with them. 

But they had a LOT of lightning strikes. Here's a money quote from Vox:

"'We had close to 11,000 strikes in a matter of three days,' said Brice Bennett, a spokesperson for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) 'With an already warm weather pattern and very, very dry conditions here in California, with those lightning strikes coming through, over 367 new fires were started.'"

Those spot lightning fires merged and congealed into three massive fires. Two of them are already among the top five largest in California history, and they're not even close to being contained yet.

We know that wildfires are common in California, but they usually burn in dense forests inland from the Pacific Ocean or through dry shrub lands in southern California.

These fires started much closer to the coast, invading the state's famed redwood forests, which almost never catch fire. Some redwoods, perhaps some that were 1,000 years old, were likely destroyed this week. 

Of course, Covid-19 is making matters worse. California prison inmates are often called upon to fight wildfires, but many were released from prison to ease Covid risks. Others are under quarantine, or sick, or can't travel to fires due to restrictions.  Seasoned firefighters need to practice social distancing, and I imagine that hampers the cooperation needed to battle the fires.

The fires have already burned more acreage than in an entire wildfire season in California. Keep in mind, this is just the start of the fire season.  Wildfires usually peak in California between mid-September and early November.

Plus, to politicize a bit, our Dear Leader Trump is not helping much so far.  He is reported to blame California again, repeating his bizarre "logic" from the past two years.  He said, "You gotta clean your floors. You gotta clean your forests. They have many, many years of leaves and broken trees.. .We say 'You gotta get rid of the leaves. You gotta get rid of the debris, You gotta get rid of fallen trees.'"

Sigh. 

California has more than 30 million acres of forests. It's hard enough to do leaf and debris removal each spring on my one-acre plot in Vermont.  Trump has no idea what it would be like to "clean" 30 million acres. And doing this somehow without wrecking the forest ecosystem? 

Here's another Covid related problem with the wildfires:  Air pollution is though to make symptoms in many people worse than they otherwise would be. Smoke from the wildfires made parts of California suffer the worst air pollution in the world at some points last week. 

The smoke is spreading throughout the West.  Actually, it's spreading all over the country. Even here in Vermont, we will often see hazy skies over the next several days at least because of the wildfires, thoug pollution levels here won't rise to dangerous levels.

TROPICAL STORMS

Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center are still carefully watching Tropical Storms Laura and Marco. 

Forecasts for these two systems will inevitably change, but at the moment, Tropical Storm Laura, near Puerto Rico this morning, only had top winds of 40 mph. Laura is forecast to slowly strengthen, but it also looks like it will struggle as it encounters land in Hispaniola and Cuba. Once it gets past Cuba, Laura could still easily turn into a dangerous hurricane when it eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco is just about to pass Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enter the western Gulf of Mexico.  It has top winds of 50 mph. It is forecast to strengthen for a time, then perhaps weaken amid strong high level winds in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. I would also note that Marco seemed to be overachieving this morning, strengthening faster than many meteorologists predicted. 

Unlike earlier forecasts, Marco is now expected to become a hurricane later today.

Forecasts for the two storms will likely change as new information comes in, so stay tuned. 

By the way, clickbait on social media is saying that Laura and Marco will get close enough together to merge into a mega hurricane.  That is total hype. Not happening. There is a 100% chance that they will NOT merge into a mega hurricane. The two storms might affect each others' path and strength somewhat, but tropical storms and hurricanes don't merge to become super storms. Just chill, OK?

SEVERE WEATHER

As expected a few isolated strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday, but it was nothing too extreme. Trees came down along Route 30 near Lake St. Catherine, and the same happened nearby along Route 140 in Middletown Springs, according to storm reports. 

Some relatively strong storms were moving through far southern Vermont early this morning, but basically we get a break from a storm threat today. 

Scattered showers and storms, some of which could be on the strong side, could erupt in Vermont tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday, but forecast details are iffy at this point. It doesn't look like there will be anything super widespread, except possibly on Tuesday.  Once again, stay tuned. 

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Risk Over The Next Week Even More Uncertain Than Usual

 As we've repeated noted, the tropical Atlantic was widely expected to get way more active starting in mid-August and that has definitely happened.

So what's in it for us?  

Just one forecast for what looks like will be Tropical
Storm Laura. Expect this projected path to change,
possibly by a lot 

Um, I dunno

Predicting the strength and path of a potential hurricane that hasn't even formed yet is still one of the biggest challenges facing meteorologists. The science really isn't there yet, though it is improving a lot. 

The situation in the Atlantic Ocean now, though, is even more of a tossup than ever, it seems.

Forecasters have been watching two areas in the Atlantic Ocean as candidates for possible hurricanes, or at least tropical storms.  One of these disturbances has taken the interim step of becoming a tropical depression, which means it has a definable circulation but is not strong enough yet to be a tropical storm. 

It will probably grow into Tropical Storm Laura later today, but then what? Talk about tossups!  

Wannabe Laura is in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean and headed generally westward. It's certainly not nearly close enough to be any threat to the United States, but it could eventually.  Computer models are all over the place with this thing. 

Wannabe Laura could turn into a powerful hurricane near Florida by next Monday or Tuesday or it could just go pffft and be yet another nothing burger. Other models take a middle approach and turn it into a strong tropical storm, but not a hurricane. 

Conditions are ripe for strengthening, but if dry air from the north gets sucked into the system, or it goes right over land in Hispaniola, Wannabe Laura could die a quick death. 

Meanwhile, there's that second thing they've been watching.  It's now much further west than Wannabe Laura. This other system is over the central Caribbean Sea and has a good chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Marco.

(Of course, if Wannabe Marco turns tropical storm first, it will be Laura and the other thing I just talked about would be Marco. Yeah, I know, confusing).

For now I'll call the problem in the Caribbean Sea Wannabe Marco unless facts change. Wannabe Marco is also in a good spot to develop, and could cause trouble in Honduras and southeastern Mexico within a few days. 

After that, who knows? Does it head northward into the Gulf of Mexico, get strong and threaten the United States? Or does in crash into Mexico and cause a lot of grief there? Or does it somehow go poof and turn into just a batch of lousy weather?

Meanwhile, an impressive batch of storms is just about to move off the west coast of Africa and head into the Atlantic, to possibly become another tropical storm in the future. 

It's true this post isn't all that enlightening.  You've basically just read a series of questions. But here's the point: We are now entering what is normally the busiest, most dangerous part of hurricane season, and this will last through September.

Since conditions in the Atlantic Ocean are favorable for potentially strong hurricanes, all these questions about Wannabe Laura and Wannabe Marco are proof that coastal residents from Texas to Maine need to be on their toes now.  If you don't have your hurricane preparedness stuff now, run out to Costco or Lowe's or wherever to get it. Today. 

Those of us inland from the coasts need to pay attention, too.  A hurricane or tropical storm heading inland can unleash a lot of dangerous flooding.