Marco Goes Pffft, Laura Shows Resiliance, Gulf On Alert, Still Storm Risk Here

Well, the good news, I suppose, is there won't be two simultaneous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico after all, and southern Louisiana might not get two tropical storms.    

In this dawn photo of the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Marco is actually centered
in the clear air southwest of the blob of
storms near the Florida Panhandle. Tropical
Storm Laura can be seen in the lower right 
of the photo

This news sounds terrific, but it's not all that great for people along parts of the Gulf Coast. 

Here's today's update on the tropical storms, and of course, things will keep changing. 

Tropical Storm Marco briefly achieved hurricane status Sunday afternoon in the central Gulf of Mexico.  That turned out to be its heyday.  Strong upper level winds are tearing Marco apart, and even if it does make it to shore as a tropical storm, it won't exactly be a powerhouse. 

Marco is now expected to fall completely apart within a couple of days, but will still dump some heavy rains on those areas.

The problem, though, is Marco's brief stint as a hurricane stirred up a push of water which is heading toward low, swampy southern Louisiana. 

Then there's Laura.  It's certainly a resilient little bugger.  It went over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and is new around Cuba. Being over land so much would have killed many tropical storms. But not Laura. She has pulled every trick up her sleeve to keep some of her circulation over water, or just rejigger itself so that the center kept shifting back toward water. 

The result this morning was a Tropical Storm Laura with highest sustained winds of 65 mph.  The center of this storm will skirt the southern coast of Cuba today as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico, so Laura should maintain its strength for now. 

Once it gets into  the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, look out! The very warm waters of the Gulf plus the fact this thing will finally be moving away from land will give it an opportunity to blossom into a full blown hurricane. 

The question now is, how big and bad of a hurricane?  The signals are still mixed.  On the one hand, we'e seen other resilient tropical storms go full bore monsters in the Gulf, with devastating results. On the other hand, upper level winds or dry air could temper the power of this storm.

It seems like we should lean toward a nasty, stronger Laura, because upper level winds, at least on Tuesday and Wednesday won't be gusty enough to interfere with development, and that hot water will certainly contribute. 

Of course, the big issue is where will Laura go? Unfortunately, all bets are that it will make a United States landfall.  Early guesses suggest it would hit somewhere near the Louisiana-Texas border.  But anyone between the central Texas coast and Alabama should watch closely.   This could easily be the nation's worst hurricane so far this year.  

SEVERE STORMS HERE

Once again yesterday, there were a couple reports of severe storms in Vermont, as expected. Most of the rough weather, though hit southern New Hampshire and parts of Massachusetts.

Still, there were reports of numerous trees and power lines down in Springfield, Vermont, and penny sized hail in Benson.

Some showers skirted the northern border areas of Vermont overnight. Here in St. Albans, I got 0.3 inches of rain. Not a huge amount, but welcome nonetheless.  Rainfall in August has been OK, but it will take a lot to get over the dry conditions from the spring and earlier summer. When I dig into the soil around my house, I hit dry, dusty earth just an inch or two below the wetter surface.

There will be some more chances of rain, though no earth-shattering amounts over the next few days.  It looked like another band of showers with a couple embedded lightning strikes was approaching my area in far northwestern Vermont as of 8:15 this morning, but it remains to be seen whether they will hold together.

(UPDATE: Yes, the showers held together and we got some more rain in St. Albans).

Once again, some of the storms that develop this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe in a handful of locations.  As has been the case, very few of them will be damaging, but one or two spots could see trouble. It's hard to say who would get nailed, as these really are hit and miss, by definition.

A strong cold front will come through tomorrow morning or early afternoon at the latest.  The timing - in the morning - would limit the amount of severe weather with this front.  Thunderstorms usually peak in intensity in the late afternoon or evening. 

Still, the cold front could bring a few strong to severe storms to us as it passes through, so watch for that. 

The coldest air since spring is set to come in behind the front, with highs Wednesday for many of us only reaching the 60s.  That's not super cold for late August, but it is somewhat chilly, as we haven't seen anything like this in a long time. 

The last time the high temperature in Burlington failed to get above 70 degree was June 14.

Two Hurricanes In Three Days In Louisiana? Also Some Severe Threat Up Here

The forecast has turned pretty ominous for Louisiana, as it's now possible that two hurricanes will strike its coast within three days of each other. 

Here's one forecast map that shows Laura 
and Marco both hitting Louisiana in the
upcoming days.

Tropical Storm Marco is spinning in the Gulf of Mexico and could strike Louisiana as a hurricane on Monday.  Tropical Storm Laura, near Hispaniola this morning, is forecast to strike basically the same spot on Thursday. 

While there's still a lot of uncertainty as to whether this will play out like I describe, such back to back strikes in the same spot are really rare. And really dangerous.

 

If it happens, both storm surge and inland flooding caused by Marco would still be going on when Laura arrives. 

Of course, as more forecast information comes in, the path and strength of the two storms could be quite different than currently predicted when the event actually unfolds. But whatever happens, it ain't good news.

First up is Tropical Storm Marco. Its top winds early this morning were 70 mph, just under hurricane strength.  It is heading steadily northwest toward Louisiana.  Rather strong upper level winds are interfering with Marco's development. 

Marco ramped up pretty quickly on Saturday, but then leveled off.  The Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm, so that would help with development, but the upper level winds would probably keep Marco at Category 1 strength, with top winds at landfall just near 75 to 80 mph. 

The real danger from Marco, despite its small size, is the storm surge and heavy rain that would prime the pump for Laura. 

Tropical Storm Laura is hanging in there surprisingly well, given its interaction with land over Hispaniola.  If a tropical storm is over land, it often weakens, especially in mountainous places like that island. 

Laura is larger in size than Marco, so that is keeping some of its thunderstorms over water, which is helping it stay together. 

This tropical storm probably won't get much stronger for the next couple of days as it goes over or near the length of Cuba.

There are definite worries as to what would happen with Laura once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. Those strongish upper level winds that will have interfered with Marco will be mostly gone. Those very warm Gulf waters have the potential to ramp Laura up into a monster hurricane.  We don't know for sure, but it's definitely worth watching. 

In any event, 2020, is the year in which everything seems to go wrong, so these twin potential hurricanes are par for the course. 

NEW ENGLAND SEVERE WEATHER

Yesterday, a tornado touched down on Lake Winnipesaukee in central New Hampshire, and likely caused damage in shoreline Wolfsboro, New Hampshire. 

No severe storms that I'm aware of hit Vermont yesterday, but I guess we are in a pattern.  There were a couple severe storm reports in Rutland County Friday, and we have a low but real chance of more severe weather today, Monday and Tuesday. 

Some showers and a few lightning strikes were in northern Vermont and northern New York this morning as a weak weather front lifts toward the Canadian border.  This front will  probably set the stage for more storms this afternoon.  A few could be strong or even locally severe, with sharp wind gusts being the primary threat. 

The same set up looks like it will hang around on Monday, so it's basically rinse and repeat.  For both days, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That means there could be a few brief, isolated severe storms, but nothing super widespread. 

It's beginning to look like more of a severe weather outbreak will hit the Northeast on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front moving into the region. 

There's a lot of question as to whether we here in Vermont will get any severe storms Tuesday and if so to what extent. 

At this point, the cold front seems like it wants to come through  the Green Mountain State in the morning, To get widespread severe storms, a cold front should come through in the afternoon or evening. That gives a chance for the atmosphere to heat up, making the air less stable and more prone to strong storms. 

That heating won't have a chance to occur if the front comes through in the morning.  The cold front looks like it will be strong enough to create rambunctious storms, even if it comes through in the morning.  If the front is delayed until afternoon, watch out!

As it is, we know that cold front won't come through until later in the day in places south and east of us, so that could turn out to be interesting. 

 

California Fires, Smoke, Laura, Marco, Storms And Us

 Wildfires in California continue to burn through much of the San Francisco Bay area and northern and central parts of the state.  So, once again, there's another extreme fire season out west.  

No end in sight with massive 
California wildfires

Vox has a great explainer as to why this week's wildfires are so extreme and weird.  It started with that very rare lightning barrage last weekend across northern California. It's really dry out there and those thunderstorms had very little rain with them. 

But they had a LOT of lightning strikes. Here's a money quote from Vox:

"'We had close to 11,000 strikes in a matter of three days,' said Brice Bennett, a spokesperson for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) 'With an already warm weather pattern and very, very dry conditions here in California, with those lightning strikes coming through, over 367 new fires were started.'"

Those spot lightning fires merged and congealed into three massive fires. Two of them are already among the top five largest in California history, and they're not even close to being contained yet.

We know that wildfires are common in California, but they usually burn in dense forests inland from the Pacific Ocean or through dry shrub lands in southern California.

These fires started much closer to the coast, invading the state's famed redwood forests, which almost never catch fire. Some redwoods, perhaps some that were 1,000 years old, were likely destroyed this week. 

Of course, Covid-19 is making matters worse. California prison inmates are often called upon to fight wildfires, but many were released from prison to ease Covid risks. Others are under quarantine, or sick, or can't travel to fires due to restrictions.  Seasoned firefighters need to practice social distancing, and I imagine that hampers the cooperation needed to battle the fires.

The fires have already burned more acreage than in an entire wildfire season in California. Keep in mind, this is just the start of the fire season.  Wildfires usually peak in California between mid-September and early November.

Plus, to politicize a bit, our Dear Leader Trump is not helping much so far.  He is reported to blame California again, repeating his bizarre "logic" from the past two years.  He said, "You gotta clean your floors. You gotta clean your forests. They have many, many years of leaves and broken trees.. .We say 'You gotta get rid of the leaves. You gotta get rid of the debris, You gotta get rid of fallen trees.'"

Sigh. 

California has more than 30 million acres of forests. It's hard enough to do leaf and debris removal each spring on my one-acre plot in Vermont.  Trump has no idea what it would be like to "clean" 30 million acres. And doing this somehow without wrecking the forest ecosystem? 

Here's another Covid related problem with the wildfires:  Air pollution is though to make symptoms in many people worse than they otherwise would be. Smoke from the wildfires made parts of California suffer the worst air pollution in the world at some points last week. 

The smoke is spreading throughout the West.  Actually, it's spreading all over the country. Even here in Vermont, we will often see hazy skies over the next several days at least because of the wildfires, thoug pollution levels here won't rise to dangerous levels.

TROPICAL STORMS

Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center are still carefully watching Tropical Storms Laura and Marco. 

Forecasts for these two systems will inevitably change, but at the moment, Tropical Storm Laura, near Puerto Rico this morning, only had top winds of 40 mph. Laura is forecast to slowly strengthen, but it also looks like it will struggle as it encounters land in Hispaniola and Cuba. Once it gets past Cuba, Laura could still easily turn into a dangerous hurricane when it eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco is just about to pass Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enter the western Gulf of Mexico.  It has top winds of 50 mph. It is forecast to strengthen for a time, then perhaps weaken amid strong high level winds in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. I would also note that Marco seemed to be overachieving this morning, strengthening faster than many meteorologists predicted. 

Unlike earlier forecasts, Marco is now expected to become a hurricane later today.

Forecasts for the two storms will likely change as new information comes in, so stay tuned. 

By the way, clickbait on social media is saying that Laura and Marco will get close enough together to merge into a mega hurricane.  That is total hype. Not happening. There is a 100% chance that they will NOT merge into a mega hurricane. The two storms might affect each others' path and strength somewhat, but tropical storms and hurricanes don't merge to become super storms. Just chill, OK?

SEVERE WEATHER

As expected a few isolated strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday, but it was nothing too extreme. Trees came down along Route 30 near Lake St. Catherine, and the same happened nearby along Route 140 in Middletown Springs, according to storm reports. 

Some relatively strong storms were moving through far southern Vermont early this morning, but basically we get a break from a storm threat today. 

Scattered showers and storms, some of which could be on the strong side, could erupt in Vermont tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday, but forecast details are iffy at this point. It doesn't look like there will be anything super widespread, except possibly on Tuesday.  Once again, stay tuned.