Climate Change Made California Fires More Likely

A bank burns during the January wildfire crisis in southern
California. Experts have concluded that climate change 
made this disaster more likely. Photo by CalFire.

Climate change made those horrific January California wildfires more likely, but the overall picture is complicated, experts who have done an analysis on the crisis have concluded. 

World Weather Attribution is an organization that does rapid response analyses of extreme weather events to determine whether climate change contributed to these events and to what extent. 

The link between the fires and climate change is complex, but it is there. 

Yale Climate Connections reported on the World Weather Attribution findings:

"The hot, dry and windy conditions that drive the fires were about 35 percent more likely and 6 percent more intense due to 1.3 degrees Celsius of global warming that has occurred since preindustrial times."

Also, "Low rainfall from October through December in the current climate is about 2.4 times more likely compared to the preindustrial climate, but this change cannot be confidently attributed to human-caused climate change"

"Fire-prone conditions because of human-caused climate change have increased by about 23 extra days each year, increasing the chance a fire will start from October through December, which coincides with the onset of peak Santa Ana wind season." 

Other findings by WWA suggest that the California dry season has increased by about 23 days since the global climate began warming to its current 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

That means there's now a greater overlap between the time Santa Ana winds typical hit and the times that those winds can create firestorms like we saw last month in California. 

WWA also noted that the atmospheric patterns that are known to strengthen Santa Ana winds has increased in the winter, which increases the risk of weather that encourages wildfire in January. However, WWA scientists say they are unsure if this atmospheric pattern trend can conclusively be tied to climate change. More study is needed on that topic. 

The bottom line: WWA concludes that climate change had an impact on the fires. Here's their precise conclusion: 

"Given all these lines of evidence we have high confidence that human-induced climate change, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, increased the likelihood of the devastating LA fires."

Since the likelihood of fires has apparently increased in southern California due to climate change, they'll need to build more resilience to future fires, WWA tells us. 

There is a high number of both elderly and disabled people living in the potential fire zones, so plans need to be in place to help them evacuate more quickly and easily when danger lurks. 

The fires also proved the water infrastructure in the area is inadequate. Despite the bleatings of the Trump administration and others, the reservoirs had plenty of water to fight the fires. 

But city infrastructure like water mains, hydrants and such are designed to handle routine fires, like when a single house or business burns down. The water system clearly can't hand major fires like this, as we know some hydrants ran dry from too much demand in the local systems. 

The region also needs more defensible areas, in which brush and other flammables are kept away from homes, businesses and neighborhoods. And rebuilding should use fire-resistant materials.

As bad as this tragic wildfire episode was, it'll happen again at some time in the future. Now is the time to take steps to make sure southern California - and other wildfire prone areas - take steps to minimize the danger. 

Because climate change is not going to go away. 

 

Ohio Toxic Derailment Worked With Weather To Worse Catastrophe

Photo is not a distant tornado in Ohio. It's the toxic plume
from the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio mixing
with an overcast and then precipitating down in
a broad area during this environmental disaster. 

The huge environmental disaster from the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio earlier this month was almost certainly created by human error. 

Weather conditions helped spread the mess. 

 We're lucky some of Ma Nature's extremes didn't make it even worse.  The weather during the disaster was pretty average, helping to contain the toxic mess to a relatively small area. 

Still, it's bad enough.  

The train derailed on February 3 in East Palestine, Ohio, very close to the Pennsylvania border.  The train cars were still burning on February 5 when emergency officials noticed a rapid temperature change in a derailed tanker car that contained vinyl chloride, a chemical used in the manufacture of PVC.

Vinyl chloride explodes violently when heated too much, so a catastrophic blast seemed imminent, according to Ohio officials. So they made a decision to do a controlled release of the chemical, which sent an immense black, toxic cloud of smoke and fumes skyward. 

What goes up must come down. We don't have good information on what kind of fallout came from that cloud.

We do know vinyl chloride is bad. Really bad.

 As the Washington Post reports: 

"'It is unclear how much of this volatile chemical escaped into the air or burned before entering surface waters and soil, but vinyl chloride is highly mobile in soils and water and can persist for years in groundwater,' said Cornell University soil and crop scientist Murray McBride, recommending that farmers test wells and surface soils in the months to come."

It seems pretty clear that there's a high risk to people right near the derailment site. What about people near the cloud released during the "controlled release?"

At the time of the "controlled release," around 3:30 p.m. February 5, winds in the area were from the west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph, according to weather data from nearby Youngstown, Ohio.

The day was overcast, and the release launched a plume of dense black smoke that rose up into the overcast, and spread out when it hit that cloud layer. Judging from photos, there might have been a temperature inversion that allowed the smoke and fumes to linger over the area, probably dropping fallout of some sort. 

I'm not sure how long this "controlled release" lasted, but in the following days, the winds kept changing directions. 

Breezes of 10 to 15 mph came from the northwest on February 6, for instance. On February 7, winds in the area were mostly from the south at 15 to 20 mph, but they shifted to the northwest later in the day.

This helped ensure whatever was in the air was dispersed in almost every conceivable direction.  

So far, the Environmental Protection Agency is saying that the area is relatively safe, though clearly more testing needs to be done. 

The air in and around East Palestine was reported to still have a chemical odor this week, but the EPA says you can smell the stuff and it would still be below unsafe levels. The following is my opinion, not from officials:

I'm not convinced its safe in and near East Palestine, or anyone who lives under or near that plume from the controlled release. 

People living in the area report dead fish in rivers. Chickens as far as 10 miles from the derailment site were found dead. 

 I have been asked by a couple people if there's any risk to us in Vermont from this Ohio environment disaster. The answer, thankfully is no. Even if the wind was blowing from the direction of the derailment, by the time the air got here, the plume would have been so completely dispersed that it would have no effect on us. 

This is the view above the cloud layer as a black plume
of smoke and toxins rise from the derailment disaster
site earlier this month in East Palestine, Ohio.

However, railroad tracks criss-cross Vermont and hazardous material is transported on these tracks. Unfortunately, there's every reason to believe another East Palestine could occur in Vermont. 

It doesn't help that train regulations are lax, and railroad employees are overworked, which can lead to errors. 

Much has been made of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's somewhat muted response to the East Palestine catastrophe. But - forgive me for injecting politics into this - more blame should go to the previous administration.

It's too soon to pin down the exact cause of the crash. However, the Obama administration in 2015 put new rules in places requiring  trains carrying flammable liquids to use electronically controlled pneumatic brakes. These would apply braking simultaneously across a train rather than railcar by railcar over a span of seconds. This rule would have taken effect this year.

But the Trump administration dropped those rules in 2017, saying they were too expensive for railroads.  

Since it feels like another train disaster is inevitable under current rules and practices, weather conditions will always be there to potential make these catastrophes worse. 

I don't think it's an "if" as to when we see another East Palestine. It's a "when."