Sunday Evening Vermont Eclipse Forecast: Trending Cloudier

St. Albans Bay. Vermont, around 3:30 pm. today, just 24 hours
before the eclipse. Would have been nice if it happened
today instead of tomorrow, when high clouds will
very likely make the view of the event somewhat fuzzy.

 Today would have been a great day for an eclipse, huh? 

Morning clouds quickly scoured out to reveal a blue bird day. It was a fine spring day close to Lake Champlain, where the snow had disappeared, and a gorgeous late winter day where the snow remained. 

Of course, this being Vermont, you can never have the weather you want, when you want. 

Forecasts keep trending cloudier for the hours around the eclipse on Monday.  By cloudier, I definitely don't mean to say the eclipse will be a no-show.

You will still see a spectacle, but it won't be a crystal clear view like you would have gotten today. Monday will start off cloud-free, but you'll see more and more of those high clouds as the late morning and afternoon progress. 

The clouds Monday afternoon still look to be high and thin, so most of us in Vermont should still sort of see the sun disappear behind the moon. The darkness that takes over will still be really cool. Those high clouds will also probably make some interesting colors and features in the sky.  

It's VERY important to note the thin clouds will not protect your eyes at all. You MUST wear those special eclipse glasses if you're looking up at the sun and following the progress of the eclipse. You can take the glasses off only during the total eclipse, when the sun is completely hidden. 

Horizontal visibility will remain excellent at eclipse time.   No fog, no haze, no wildfire smoke. So you'll see how the eclipse affects distant mountains, lakes and clouds as it progresses. During the total eclipse, you'll see a little light in the distance, in places where the eclipse already passed, or is yet to hit.  

Bottom line: The increasingly cloudy forecast is by no means a complete disappointment. Not even close. 

A low overcast with fog would have been exponentially worse than the expected conditions Monday afternoon. Had we gotten that low overcast and mist,  a dark dreary day would have just gotten much darker for a little while. Yawn. 

So we're still doing well.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington noted that they had to adjust forecast high temperatures downward under and near the path of the eclipse.   Highs in the valleys without the eclipse tomorrow would probably have been in the 60 to 65 degree range.

But the timing of the eclipse - more or less around the time of peak heating - means meteorologists had to trim back expected highs to between 55 and 60.  Tomorrow will probably not be the warmest day so far this spring because of the eclipse.   

I'm sure we'll get over that "disappointment." Temperatures will also probably fall by at least five or six degrees during the eclipse, then partially recover afterwards. 

Hopefully the cloud forecast won't get much worse. I don't think it will. The high clouds will be caused by a dying warm front approaching from the southwest. An active or sharpening warm front would have thrown even more clouds our way. 

So all in all, we're still doing pretty well with this thing in Vermont. 

Vermont Eclipse Forecast: High Clouds, But Still A Great Show

High, thin clouds are expected to appear in the skies over
much of Vermont by the time the eclipse arrives Monday,
but the clouds will be thin enough so that we
should still enjoy a great show. 

 We have another instance coming up in which Vermont is wonderful, but not perfect.

That would be the eclipse.   

Tomorrow is the big day, so the forecasts are almost locked in. There could still be some changes, but meteorologists seem fairly confident about what's going to happen Monday 

HIGH CLOUDS 

The way the forecast for Monday looks now, a bluebird clear blue morning will be invaded by high, thin clouds by the time the eclipse rolls around in the afternoon. 

The great news is this will be no means be a thick overcast.  To an extent, you'll be able to see through the clouds and take in a lot of what's going on.  We're still in for a great show. 

You'll most likely still see the moon takes bites out of the sun as if it's eating a vanilla wafer, then cover the sun entirely. (You will be watching all this with your special eclipse glasses on, of course). The changing, fading light as the eclipse draws close will still be stunning. 

Maybe the clouds will enhance the experience. It will be interesting to see how the thin clouds look during the eclipse and the moment just before and after. There might be some interesting colors or shadows or effects because of those clouds. 

The high clouds, of course are making things not perfect. Especially for photographers and people who want an unobstructed view of it all. The eclipse will result in fantastic photographs, of course. But a crystal clear sight is probably not in the cards, for those who wanted pristine shots of the edges of the sun peeking from behind the moon. 

The thinnest, most scattered clouds along the eclipse route in Vermont will be in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Two or three days ago, the high clouds were initially forecast to only make it as far east as around Buffalo, New York. But each computer model run had the band of high clouds moving faster. So now, unless the computer models reverse themselves, we'll see the cirrus clouds overhead in the Green Mountain State. 

This is so much better than climatology would have it, though. This is a terribly cloudy time of year in Vermont. It's usually stormy You might remember the news stories a few weeks ago saying we had an 80 percent chance of overcast during the eclipse. 

Notice how most of us didn't see the sun this past Wednesday through Saturday. This coming week, Wednesday through at least Saturday, also looks like it will be overcast and dismal. 

The clouds this time of year are often thick and low. Can you imagine how disappointing the eclipse would have been had it hit during the big snowstorm Thursday, or amid the damp overcast of Friday?

Fingers crossed that the high clouds won't thicken up, but it appears we might be beating the odds. Despite the thin clouds, Vermont is catching a big break, timed well for the eclipse.

Temperatures will be comfortable for viewers, too.  We'll get well into the 50s just prior to the eclipse, though temperatures of course will drop noticeably during the event as the sun disappears.

NO HIKING!

Although we'll have pretty good viewing weather for the eclipse, there are certain things that are a really, really bad idea during the eclipse.  

For instance, if you know anybody who thinks it would be fun to hike to a mountain summit to view the eclipse, strongly tell them to think again. You're not supposed to use hiking trails this time of year anyway because it's mud season and you'll damage the trails. 

Even though the weather forecast looks good, we'll also have the worst possible weather Monday to hit the hiking trails. We just had a lot of snow and it will be melting rapidly Monday. The cold, running water and deep mud on the trails will be awful. There will still be a ton of snow in the highest elevations. (There's still six or seven feet of it atop Mount Mansfield). 

There's tons of ice to slip and fall on, too.

If you get stuck in the mountains, cell service will be spotty at best if you need to call for help. Cell service will be especially strained due to the heavy use expected.

Rescue crews will be stretched thin, too. If you get into trouble up in the mountains, you might not get help until well into the night. By then, temperatures will be in the 20s up there.

BOATING A BAD IDEA

Although winds will be light and waves pretty minimal, it's still a bad idea to take a boat or kayak or anything like that out onto Lake Champlain or other bodies of water for the eclipse. Water temperatures are still in the 30s in most areas. If you fall in, you won't last long. 

If you want a lake in your eclipse view, pick a spot on the shore with a nice west and south facing view.  Burlington's Waterfront and St. Albans Bay Town Park are great spots for eclipse lake views, but expect crowds and traffic. Note there will be some street closures in Burlington and other communities. 

STICK TO THE PAVEMENT

With all the melting snow and thawing frost and heavy precipitation we had all winter, back roads and dirt roads will be an absolute mess. I know some of you might want a spectacular, rural view of the eclipse. Most dirt roads will be mud bogs, though. It'll be really easy to get stuck. And really hard to obtain help getting pulled out. Definitely best to stay on the paved roads. 

Don't believe the GPS in your car. It often lies and can send you to a remote dirt road, often not maintained well.  Thursday's snow has long since been removed from paved roads and they will all be in great shape Monday, aside from the occasional pot hole and frost heave.

PICK YOUR SPOT

You'll want to plan ahead for this one. 

Today might be a good day to scout out a place where you'd like to view the eclipse.  Maybe go out between 2 and 4 p.m. this afternoon to judge spots where the eclipse will look good to you.  Unobstructed west and south views are best. 

Remember, traffic will be thick Monday, so allow plenty of time to get to your viewing spot. It'll be a bummer to be stuck on the roads when the eclipse hits, so be where you want to be ahead of time. Make sure you have a tank full of gas. And snacks and beverages. You might be stuck in traffic after it all ends. 

DON'T SWEAT IT

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity, so stay positive. Don't road rage in the traffic. Don't elbow people away to get a view. Don't tromp across private property. There's plenty of public areas to watch the spectacle. Don't be a Karen. There will be no eclipse manager to entertain your bullcrap.

Just enjoy the experience and live in the moment during the eclipse. 

It will be quite a moment.