Torrential Nor'easter Done In Vermont, But Its Remnants Will Mess Up Chances To See Big Northern Lights

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
released this map of total rainfall from yesterday's 
nor'easter. Almost all of Vermont had at least an
inch of rain (yellow shading). Orange was more
than 1.5 inches, red is two inches or more,
Northern New York had much less rain 
than Vermont did. 

The nor'easter is pretty much done, with all the heavy rain well out of Vermont. 

Aside from ponding and high water on maybe a couple roads, we avoided flooding, 

But the nor'easter has one last bummer for us. It will block an expected spectacular sky show tonight, More on that in a minute. 

THE RAIN 

First, some rainfall and details and forecasts and news from Saturday. Rain totals were in line with expectations, with almost everybody in Vermont seeing one to two inches.

The heaviest rain, again, as forecast, were in or near the Green Mountains. Also far southeast Vermont and parts of the southern Champlain Valley collected more than most people. 

The winner of the Vermont rainfall sweepstakes was Guilford, in the far southeast corner of the state with 2.88 inches. Runners up were 2.76 inches in Brattleboro; 2.66 in the Nashville section of Jericho; 2.43 inches in Bolton, 2.4 inches in Quechee and, 2.35 inches in Jeffersonville.

My unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans, Vermont caught an impressive 1.75 inches of rainfall.

Ye of little faith thought the main rivers in Vermont would get higher than they got. I knew there would be little if any river flooding, but I thought that the National Weather Service and the USGS were under-forecasting peak crests a little.

But nope! They got it exactly right. 

The usually problematic Otter Creek in Center Rutland peaked at about 1.7 feet below flood stage. The Mad River at Moretown, another traditional trouble maker, stopped at more than three feet below minor flood level.

Those rivers and all the rest of them in Vermont, rose noticeably but stopped far, far from flooding anything. So good news there. 

The rain shut off for the most part by midnight. But there's a little more on the way from this. Not much, though. Those of us who do get more rain between now and Monday morning will see less than a tenth of an inch, 

You've no doubt noticed it's been cold today for June 1, Temperatures have been running in the 50s all afternoon, with a spot 60 or two in southern Vermont, where they have been glimpses of sun. This is nearly 20 degrees cooler than average for this time of year. 

The clouds, and the lingering few showers out there this afternoon sets us up for a potential big disappointment tonight. 

NORTHERN LIGHTS

Naked eye view, with no photographic enhancement
of northern lights over St. Albans, Vermont on
May 10, 2024.  Another spectacular northern 
lights display is forecast for tonight, but 
unfortunately, Vermont is also 
forecast to be under a thick blanket of clouds.

The sun erupted with large outburst, known as a coronal mass ejection the other day.  It was bigger than usual and more or less aimed at Earth. 

Which heightens the chances of seeing northern lights far more south than usual, and covering more of the sky than you'd expect. 

 Some observers think this one would be the best since at least May 10, 2024, when most of the United States had quite a show. Here in Vermont, skies unexpectedly cleared that evening, so we got to enjoy it, too.  

NOAA's Space Weather Division says the event will have its greatest impact on Earth today and tonight, meaning you should be outdoors looking at the sky after dark. 

Except if you live in Vermont (and a few other places in northern New England and southern Quebec). It turns out Saturday's nor'easter will take one last slap at us tonight. 

That storm is way up in Quebec now, but it will a swing one last disturbance through Vermont tonight. The disturbance will bring a lot of clouds and light showers overnight, especially to northern and central  parts of Vermont.  

The overcast would block any view we have of what's going on in the sky. The forecast timing of the thickest clouds is atrocious. As of this afternoon, forecasters expect the cloudiest skies with fewest breaks between 8 pm. this evening and 5 a.m. Monday. 

After that, once daylight hits, skies should rapidly clear in much of Vermont. It figures. 

The valleys of southern Vermont, especially the Connecticut River Valley below White River Junction, do have a shot at partly clear skies overnight. 

NOAA says the effects of this thing might linger into Monday night. So Vermonters have another shot at seeing the northern lights, but they might not be as good as tonight would have been.  Skies over Vermont Monday night and before dawn Tuesday are expected to be mostly clear. 

On the other hand, we already have reports of some spectacular shows in the northern Plains and Rockies before dawn today. So the show might well be over by Monday night. 

These things can new pretty unpredictable, so you never know. 

Great Chance Of Northern Lights Tonight, But Clouds In Vermont Might Hinder View

A fairly conservative aurora forecast from NOAA.
People north go the red line from southern Oregon to
Long Island could see them. Some forecasts have people
in places like Texas and Alabama seeing the aurora.

 One of the biggest solar storms in decades seems like it's about to unleash one of the best northern lights displays in recent years. 

A geomagnetic storm from the sun that erupted this week appears to be the strongest since 2005. That puts most of the northern hemisphere in line for a potentially spectacular aurora display overnight.

If the skies are clear at the right time overnight, people as far south as Alabama could see a peek of the aurora. States closer to the Canadian border might find skies largely lit up by flickering greens, reds and other colors. 

For us in Vermont, we are geographically located nicely to see this display. Unfortunately, we're not meteorologically in a perfect place.   

This is Vermont, after all. So of course it might be partly to mostly cloudy overnight into the wee hours of the morning. So a grand view of the aurora is iffy but definitely possible.  

We lucked out with mostly clear skies during this year's big event - the total eclipse of the sun back on April 8 -- but our luck won't hold for this event, it seems. 

It does seem every time there's northern lights, it's cloudy in Vermont. At least tonight most of us won't have a complete overcast. 

There is some hope. Skies might not be entirely cloudy.  Some dry air is bleeding south from Quebec, and that could  give us some hope. I notice early this evening from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont the sky is blue looking north toward Canada. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington predicted this evening that skies over northern Vermont after dark will become at least partly clear. Cloud cover might only cover 30 percent of the sky near the Canadian border. Central and southern Vermont look like they'll be somewhat cloudier. 

Most of the nation is expecting clear skies overnight, so many people will see this event. Everybody except the Northeast, Great Lakes and parts of the Southwest should be clear. So at least we'll see a lot of cool photos from other places. 

You might see the northern lights anytime after dark tonight. The best chances of seeing a display are probably between midnight and 4 a.m. Saturday.   

In places in the northern hemisphere where it's already night, some spectacular photos are coming in. Social media is ablaze with wild aurora photos from places like Russia, Germany, Austria, Poland the the UK. 

Most of the photos are taken with a long exposure, so anything you might see probably won't be as wild as you see on social media. But it still could be gorgeous

The geomagnetic storm isn't all fun and games and beauty. This is a strong one after all, so it's messing with the Earth's magnetic field. It could cause power outages, internet failures, GPS wonkiness and radio interference. It could also disrupt the orbit of some satellites. 

Widespread problems aren't expected, though.

The geomagnetic storm will probably continue much of the weekend, which opens up the possibility of another display Saturday night. Here in Vermont, Saturday night is looking cloudier than tonight. 

 

Far Fetched But Possible It Turns Out: Northern Lights Can Cut Your Winter Heating Bill

Geomagnetic storms, which cause northern lights, might
lower your fuel bill, believe it or not! 

 Since our brains might be still on celestial mode, given the wonderful eclipse we had this week, another event in the sky is making some science news.

Northern Lights.  None are in the immediate forecast, but hope springs eternal. 

In any event, this is a good excuse to lay out some new science that seems very strange, but quite possibly true:

The northern lights can lower your winter heating bill.

It's a convoluted, Rube Goldberg kind of process, but here goes, courtesy of an article in the Washington Post: 

The sun spews charged particles toward Earth, especially when there's a solar flare, basically an eruption on the sun. 

Those charged parcels bang into the extreme top of the atmosphere, where it excites molecules, which emit light. Those lights are the aurora borealis. 

Those particles eventually start falling toward Earth very slowly, and create molecules of nitric oxide and other chemicals. Once these fall into the stratosphere gradually over weeks and months. The stratosphere is where the ozone layer is, and those molecules can destroy ozone. 

If you destroy ozone in the stratosphere, it can cool that layer of the atmosphere. If scientists are correct, solar flares and the aurora can prevent something called a  "sudden stratospheric warming."

When that happens, it can disrupt the the polar vortex. The polar vortex, you might recall, is a swirling pool of intensely cold air in the atmosphere that lives in various places, usually in the Arctic during the winter.

If the polar vortex is tightly wound and near the North Pole, winter weather in places like the United States and Europe is usually relatively mild. 

If the polar vortex is disrupted buy a sudden stratospheric warming, it can stretch, weaken and move to weird areas. When that happens, it very often opens the door to Arctic blasts invading North America, Europe and/or Asia. 

Cold waves in the mid-latitudes increase electric and other utility bills. Which means if solar eruptions and the northern lights are more active than usual, it might keep money in your wallet.