Worst Storms Still To Miss Us; Vermont Saturday To Be Even Colder Than First Thought, Baking Elsewhere

UPDATE: 4 p.m. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is focusing on the
red circle, and especially the pink circle within it,
as the likeliest spot for a tornado or two this evening.
Despite the close proximity of Vermont to this.
storms are expected to weaken sharply as they
approach the Green Mountain State later this evening. 

Normally, if I looked at the way radar and satellite images look now, I'd say things look ominous for Vermont. But I'm still not super concerned. 

True, rotating supercells have erupted in southern Ontario and Quebec and are edging into western New York.

A tornado watch is in effect as far east as the central Adirondacks.

In the St. Lawrence Valley, temperatures are well into the 80s and dew points are in the low 70s, extremely humid.  That's a trigger to sustain those storms.

The humidity extends all the way northeastward to Montreal. 

We'll probably hear a number of damage reports from Ontario, Quebec, New York and Pennsylvania today. Forecasters see a tornado threat late this afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and central parts of that state. 

However, we in Vermont still seem protected from these storms, as awful as this looks on paper. More stable, slightly cooler air is still circulating into Vermont on strong southeast winds.  Temperatures are lower and dew points are only in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Still, the humidity has crept up a bit in northwestern Vermont.  A lone thunderstorm in northern Vermont this morning proved we can sustain some storms. 

However, those powerful storms still look like they will be in a sharp weakening trend as they move toward and into Vermont later this evening. Stable air from the Atlantic is the bane of severe storms. It will be interesting to see how fast the storms weaken.

Still, I do see the possibility of some decent lightning, some downpours and even perhaps gusty winds over northwestern Vermont especially this evening.  This is especially true if more of that stable air erodes out of the New York side of the Champlain Valley. 

It won't be nearly as dangerous as it is in New York State now, but there's still a low chance of a relatively strong storm in Vermont. However, we still appear to be dodging another bullet. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Enjoy the summer-ish weather today and to a certain extent tomorrow, because summer in Vermont is about to go on hiatus for a few days. 

Meanwhile, forecasts are consistent that powerful, sometimes severe thunderstorms expected to erupt in western and central New York today will either miss us entirely by going to our south, or just fizzling out on their way to the Green Mountain State. 

Some of us did manage to get a little rain this morning as once was a cluster of thunderstorms decayed into showers as they zipped through New York and Vermont. 

Most of rest of today should stay pretty much rain-free, with maybe just a few isolated showers. We'll deal with gusty south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. It'll be a little more humid, too, as temperatures once again get up to about 80 degrees or so. 

Those decaying showers and storms should move into Vermont this evening. They will have weakened rapidly by the time they get to Vermont because much of today's air is coming from the Atlantic Ocean. That air tends to be stable and not able to support the updrafts that keep thunderstorms going. 

Still, many of us will see rain, and some rumbles of thunder. That stable air near the surface means there could be a bit of a temperature inversion.  If that happens and it thunders, the thunder might seem louder, and more rolling and a bit more strange than how we usually hear it. 

This first round will be Cold Front #1. The air behind this first one isn't that cold, so we'll still pop up into the seasonable 70s to around 80 Friday. Then Cold Front #2 comes in with its own batch of showers and storms Friday. 

It looks like Vermont continues its charmed life. Though a few storms might be strong-ish, particularly in eastern Vermont, most of any severe storms that due form would be east or south of us. 

COLD WAVE

Trends have been for making the anticipated June chill this weekend even chillier than we first thought. Definitely bring your fleece to whatever outdoor event you might be going to. 

It now appears temperatures Saturday afternoon will stay in the 50s for the vast majority of the area. Basically, high temperatures Saturday will be the same or even a little colder than what is normally our low temperatures for this time of year. 

It's even possible that the coldest places in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the upper 40s. I did a spot check of National Weather Service forecasts up that way. A for instance is the remote town of Averill. The expected "high" temperature there Saturday is 47 degrees.  Brrr!

Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will actually add a wind chill to the mix.  Light, but cold showers will be scattered around as well.

Yesterday, I speculated about snow atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire. That looks even more likely now. There could even be some wet snow flakes Saturday morning on the summits of mountains like Camels Hump, Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak. 

Thankfully, there probably will be too many clouds and too many breezes to create any kind of nighttime frost threat, except perhaps in the most protected, coldest valleys of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. 

It'll be a little better on Sunday. We'll see more periods of sun. Northwest winds will remain brisk but not as gusty as on Saturday. And highs will get into the 60s. That's still quite cold for this time of year, but not as awful.

Trends continue to bring our temperatures back up to near or just a smidge below normal for the first half of next week, so this extremely early preview of autumn won't last all that long.

By the way, the expected chill in northern New England and Quebec this weekend is an exception.  There's always hot and cold spots somewhere on Earth.  The hot spots this weekend will be quite hot. 

Parts of western Europe will be close to record highs for so early in the summer. Record heat has baked much of the central U.S. for the past few days  That heat is forecast to reassert itself and become intense again across large swaths of the central and southern U.S. this weekend and early next week.

Many more record high temperatures are expected to fall in much of the U.S. through at least early next week. Just not here in Vermont.