One More Nice Day, Then Big Changes Still Scheduled

Severe storms are expected to develop in New York State\
tomorrow. Vermont looks like it will continue to live
its charmed life as the storms are forecast to fizzle
on approach to Vermont 

 Yesterday was about as fine a June day as you can get in Vermont.  We had those blue skies mixed with puffy clouds warm temperatures and comfortable humidity. What's not to love about it?

If you missed out on this, you have another chance today. 

Then the weather gets unsettled, but Vermont will continue to lead its charmed life: A threat of severe storms later tomorrow will fizzle as they approach the Green Mountain State.

For several days, we've been watching severe weather dance along the edges of a torrid heat wave baking the South and middle of the nation.

A warm front tomorrow will make that heat come closer to us, but not quite make it into the area.  The warmth and humidity will soar across pretty much all of New York State except the extreme eastern part of Empire State.

Here in Vermont, it will turn warmish and somewhat more humid on Thursday, but it won't be anything extreme.

The oppressive air in New York State will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms there. All of New York west of the Hudson Valley and Adirondacks are under a slight risk level of severe weather. There could even be a brief tornado or two in the western half of New York and Pennsylvania.

These storms might end up looking ominous on radar for us Vermonters. After all, severe storms that develop in New York often end up here. 

But the air will be much more stable here. The storms are expected to rapidly weaken on approach. Sure, there will be a fair number of showers around Thursday evening and night and there could be some rumbles of thunder, but at this point, severe weather is not looking like much of a threat to us.

I'll update of course if the air turns out to be more humid and unstable than current forecasts show.

Friday will be another transition day as that unusually strong June cool spell starts headed into our neck of the woods.  We should see more showers around, especially north. Though it will probably make it into the seasonable 70s during the day, you'll notice it cooling off later in the afternoon and night. 

Saturday looks cold for this time of year. It is June, though, so it can't get that nippy.  Still, highs then will only make it into the low 60s north, and mid to upper 60s southern Valleys. The Northeast Kingdom probably won't even make it out of the 50s for highs. 

The record for the lowest 'high" temperature in Burlington for Saturday's date is 56 degrees in 1959. That record does seem safe. But normal high temperatures this time of year should be in the mid and upper 70s, so yeah, bring your fleece if you're going to some sort of outdoor event Saturday.

The sun is as strong as it can get this time of year.  That means the sun's heat will create updrafts that will create scattered, chilly showers. Those showers will produce downdrafts that will grab even colder air from aloft. Which means it will feel quite cold under those showers. If you do get caught in a shower Saturday afternoon, temperatures might briefly dip down into the 50s. 

I certainly don't think it will be cold enough for snow at summit level in the Green Mountains, but I'll be interested to see if the top of New Hampshire's Mount Washington sees any flurries on Saturday. In any event, Saturday won't be a great day for a mountain hike. 

It'll warm up somewhat after Saturday, but temperatures will remain a little below normal at least into the middle of next week.