Parts Of Vermont AGAIN Hit With Flooding; New Flood Threat Today

Lightning in Ferrisburgh, Vermont Thursday evening
on the northern side of the storm that caused 
severe flash flooding in and near Middlebury.

UPDATE: 11:00  am. FRIDAY

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says they will soon issue a severe thunderstorm warning for likely a large swath of the Northeast.

That area includes central and southern Vermont. 

Stuff is already boiling up in central, northern and western New York, and that will only continue to develop as we head into the afternoon. 

A few spots in this region could see wind gusts to 60 mph and hail the size of quarters or in one or two cases, up to ping pong ball sized.

Most of us won't get it that bad, but a few people will. 

Note that any storms can produce heavy rain and a flash flood watch remains in effect.

Spots of relatively heavy rain this morning didn't help, as that soaked the soil further before any more rains arrive.

Middlebury was really in the bullseye with Thursday's storms. Official measuring sites at two locations in Middlebury measured 6.12 inches and 5.85 inches. One site in Middlebury recorded 5.75 inches in just two hours and 20 minutes, which is incredible!

No wonder there was so much damage in that neck of the woods.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

More flash flooding surprised Vermont Thursday, mostly slamming parts of Addison County with two to as much as six inches of rain in just three hours or less.  

Note that five inches of rain is a LOT, more than you should expect in the entire month of August.  

This rainfall sets the stage for more possible flooding later. today. More on that below.

The new flooding in Addison County Thursday was intense and at some times scary. Three people pulled from a car that had been swept into trees and had water up to the roof in a swift water rescue just south of Middlebury. 

Several washouts closed a section of Route 116 in East Middlebury. A section of heavily traveled Route 7 near the intersections of Route 125 and 116 were closed for a time due to high water. That's the second time this summer that part of Route 7 had to be shut down due to high water. 

In Middlebury, video showed part of Seymour Street inundated with what looked like up to two feet of muddy water. 

Fire and Ice Restaurant in Middlebury posted a Facebook video of an underpass on another section of Seymour Street with several feet of water collecting under the span. A car uphill from the deepest water was stuck in rushing water.   Another video showed Abbey Pond Road looking like a rushing river. 

Even though Addison County did not get the worst of the epic floods of July 10-11, since then, that region has been repeatedly targeted this summer by damaging storms. 

The storm extended into the central Green Mountains. A mud slide closed part of Route 125 in Hancock near the Route 100 intersection. A piece of Route 100 in Rochester was closed by high water. 

WHAT HAPPENED

The storm in Addison, and parts of Windsor Counties was much more intense than many forecasters had expected. 

Torrential rains hammer down in Ferrisburgh, Vermont
Thursday evening from a storm that caused a 
significant flash flood a few miles south around
Middlebury, Vermont. 

As we noted yesterday, the weather pattern was destined to yield surprises.

It had been hoped that a band of light rain that passed through central  Vermont in the late morning and early afternoon Thursday would stabilize the air and prevent many new storms from forming. 

But, in a few cases, they did form.  The one that hit Addison County moved fairly slowly as it emerged from the Adirondacks, where it caused a few problems with high water wind damage and hail.

The Addison County storm was also back building as it moved into Vermont. Back building means that new downpours kept forming on the tail end of the storm as it moved east and southeast.  

Instead of a storm that creates a fairly harmless downpour that lasts less than an hour, you instead got a torrent from the sky that lasted three hours.  So we had another flood with those several inches of rain.  

It was a pretty remarkable storm, as you can see above. I was in Ferrisburgh, on the northern edge of the storm and was impressed by how much lightning there was, and how the torrential downpours would persist just when you thought the sky was brightening and the storm was over. 

The storm was also isolated, limiting itself to its path through Addison and Windsor counties. 

More storms fired up later and swept through most of Vermont overnight, but they were not nearly as intense as the Addison County mess.

MORE FLOODING?

A flood watch is up today for all of Vermont except Grand Isle County. 

Another round of heavy showers and storms will sweep through the state starting by around noon and ending this evening. 

We had the pre-soak last night, so the ground is more saturated, so we could have some local flash flood problems again. 

The good news is most of the storms should zip right along, dumping a half inch or a little more of rain then departing.  That scenario would limit the flash flood potential.

The very bad news is that, in a few spots, we could have some of that dreaded "back building" again that we saw in Addison County last evening. Or multiple storms could hit the same spot during the day. Either way, you'd have a local flash flood issue.

We are of course paying close attention to central Vermont, notably the places in Addison and Windsor counties that got nailed last night. They can't really take on any more water, so if a persistent storm hits there again today, they're screwed. 

There was already an area of fairly heavy rain in the Adirondacks as of 7:30 a.m. heading toward Addison County. Don't know if that will hold together, but it was making me nervous. 

Although everyone in Vermont should be on alert for potential flash flood or severe storm warnings, those of you near and east of Middlebury should really be on your toes. 

Most of us will not see any flash flooding today.  It'll be another scenario that if anything bad develops, it would only be in handful of towns, like last evening. 

The problem is, as always, we don't know in advance which towns. 

In addition to the flooding questions today, some storms could contain damaging winds and/or hail. 

Although an isolated severe thunderstorm could  happen pretty much anywhere in Vermont today, the best chance is from Route 4 south. Once again, there's even a very, very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado in southern Vermont. 

This all gets out of our hair this evening, and we have a pleasant weather weekend shaping up.  Although there might be a little wildfire smoke in the air again. (I know, I know, I'm sick of it, too), the sun will be out most of the time during the day, the humidity will be reasonable and temperatures comfortable. 

 

 

No Rest For Weary Vermont: More Local Floods Friday, Much Bigger Threat Sunday

Lightning crackles in a thunderstorm well east of 
St. Albans Friday evening. Storms in Addison
County caused renewed flooding. 

UPDATE 2 PM SATURDAY

The fresh flooding in Addison County last night was even worse than I thought.

As VTDigger reports, a landslide destroyed a house.

Laurie Cox, one of Ripton's emergency management coordinators said the town's fire department was in the area evacuating people endangered by the rising Middlebury River. 

She said the town's fire chief was standing outside the house talking with the homeowner when the slide occurred, VTDigger reports.

"And right at that moment, the hillside collapsed, and house owner's truck got pushed right into the fire truck, and our fire chief was standing right in between them," Cox said. "Fortunately, it didn't quite come to where he would have been squished, really....I mean it literally could have killed him."

The affected family was house in an emergency shelter. Other homes in the area were evacuated due to high water from the river and the threat of more landslides. 

Ripton received a sizable 3.42 inches of rain overnight. 

Forecast updates for tomorrow's flood risk are due late this afternoon. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Boy, we just aren't catching a break here in Vermont.

On Friday, I thought we just might squeak through a day in the Green Mountain State with no new damage, but nope!  

Storms fired up in the evening, mostly across central Vermont, and at least in a few spots, caused renewed flooding.

The epicenter this time was in  Addison County, where parts of Route 7, Route 116 and Route 125 were closed around East Middlebury.  I'm sure there were other road washouts and damage around East Middlebury and Ripton due to up to three inches of rain in a short time Friday evening. 

There weren't many other reports - at least so far - of other major trouble elsewhere in Vermont from Friday evening's storms, which produced quite a light show from the lightning in those clouds after the sun set. 

This all follows the confirmation of a tornado Thursday in northern Rutland County.  In case you read one of my posts mentioning two tornadoes, take note of an important correction:  There was only ONE confirmed tornado NOT two. Apologies for yesterday's error. 

Today, I'm convinced we will get a break in the weather. An isolated storm might pop up over the mountains this afternoon, but anything that does get going will be pretty tame.  But, it's a short break, and we have much more trouble for Sunday

SUNDAY FLOOD WATCH

Another disturbance and another flood alert is up for almost all of Vermont for Sunday.  The incoming storm has similarities to the one that caused the calamity on Monday. But a very important note is we will receive much, much less rain as we did nearly a week ago.  

That's the good news, if you're hunting for any glimmers of hope.

The bad news - and there's always bad news these days - is that we will receive enough rain to almost surely create new flash flooding in some parts of Vermont.  The flood watch starts Sunday morning and goes well into the night. 

The watch covers all of Vermont except the immediate Champlain Valley.  

Total rainfall Sunday looks to be in the one to two inch range, but some unlucky folks could get more than three inches of rain.  A few lucky devils could get less  than an inch of rain.  It's going to be pretty variable, with big differences in rainfall across Vermont. 

Storms passing southeast of St. Albans, Vermont Friday
evening at sunset made the sky look like a painting. 

Given how wet and unstable the ground is now, there's more than enough rain coming for many of us  to set off more flash flooding. That could undo some of the repairs that have been started. 

It looks like the rain will come in two batches. One goes through in the morning. It'll be mostly a steady drenching rain for a few hours, with downpours embedded in it. While this first round might touch off some flooding, it'll mostly serve to pre-soak things further for Round 2

Round 2 comes through in the afternoon and evening as a line of potentially torrential rain. This batch of rain has the highest chance of causing new problems, especially if heavy showers hit the same spot repeatedly. 

As always, it's pretty much impossible this far ahead of the storm to figure out which towns get the heaviest rains and which are spared. 

If you are in a flood prone area, even areas that escaped high water Monday and Tuesday, remain vigilant tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Don't drive over flooded roads, of course.  It's always risky to do that, but even more so now. They've just been patched up, and a lot of those fixes are temporary just to the roads could be reopened pending more permanent repairs. 

That makes these areas more prone to washouts and damage. 

At this point, it looks like most of the main rivers in Vermont will not go into flood. Downtown Montpelier looks safe from a renewed inundation, but of course officials will be watching the Wrightsville Dam spillway.

People are pretty optimistic there won't  be an issue with that dam, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

One river that is flooding, and will continue to flood through this is the Otter Creek in Rutland and Addison counties. 

It's already flooding in Addison County, thank's to torrential rains Thursday and Friday in the watershed between Brandon and Middlebury. 

Further south, the Otter Creek is probably going to go back into flood stage at Center Rutland, but won't get as high as it did Monday and Tuesday. 

Lake Champlain has risen by two feet since the start of the month and is now at about 98 feet. It will probably go up some more. At this point, it doesn't look like it will hit the flood stage of 100 feet, but the way this summer is going, you never know. 

OTHER TROUBLE

Once we get through Sunday, there's more flood risks on Tuesday and possibly toward the end of the upcoming week.  We're still trapped in the same basic weather pattern that took hold in late June. 

Meteorologists are watching Tuesday's system, as it could slow down as it tries to move through New England, possibly prolonging the rain. No guarantee that will happen, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

It's too soon to tell whether the rain late next week will be a troublemaker. Yet again, though, there's potential, so meteorologists are watching that one, too.

OTHER NEWS

As expected, President Biden approved Vermont Gov. Phil Scott's request for a major disaster declaration for Vermont. That opens the door for more federal assistance to help with the recovery.  I just hope if there's new damage Sunday or in the upcoming days, that will be covered.

Typically, disaster declarations are amended if more damage occurs days after the main show due to a persistent weather pattern, as we are experiencing here. 

In a sign of the times, downtown Montpelier streets are close to general traffic, at least for now. They've done that to give room for emergency vehicles and volunteers to help with the cleanup. 

You also better check whether your town is still under a boil water notice. A lot of water treatment plants were disrupted, and drinking water might have some issues. 

Despite the fact that today is going to be rather sunny and quite warm, I'd continue to stay out of swimming holes on the state's rivers and brooks. Water is still running fast and high, contaminants are probably still in the water, and debris on the river beds could cause injuries. 

If you want to help, Vermont Public has a great page guiding you toward ways you can be Vermont Strong. Click on this link for more. 

There Was A Second Vermont Tornado On July 18 After All

 It turns out the rotating storm that produced an EF-1 tornado in Addison, Vermont on July 18 also created a second twister a little to the northeast in Waltham, Vermont.   

Screen grab from video by Chas Eller of a weak tornado
in Waltham, Vermont on July 19. It was the second
of two tornadoes a rotating storm produced in 
Addison County that day. This second tornado 
caused little damage and was more beautiful than anything else.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington on Tuesday confirmed the EF-0 tornado based largely on video taken by Chas Eller and posted on Twitter by Ben Frechette. Tornado strength is categorized on a scale of zero to five, with zero being the weakest.

This was a weak tornado, and based on Eller's video, it was more beautiful than harmful. 

Officially,  the tornado had top winds of 70 mph, was on the ground for just two minutes, with a path length of 0.7 miles and a width of 25 yards. It caused minor tree damage. Your basic severe thunderstorm would normally cause more damage than that. 

But as I said, the video is gorgeous.   I don't mean to diminish the danger from even a weak tornado, but still you can appreciate them, especially this one. 

In the video the upper portion of the funnel is dark, as is the foreground under the thickest portion of the storm.  But the picturesque Champlain Valley farmland in the background glows a soft green in the rain and fog, while the cloudy sky to the left has a peach hue due to haze and a low sun angle.

The part of the funnel that periodically touches the ground takes on a mix of the light gray of the background and the peach hue of the hazy evening.  Toward the end, the tornado startles a murder of crows, some of which seem to get briefly caught up in the tornado's circulation. 

When I first reported on this tornado, I wondered if there was a second tornado that day in southeastern Vermont, given some pretty strong rotation detected radar over Marlboro and West Brattleboro.  However, that southeastern Vermont circulation remained aloft, so there was no twister there. 

But this rotating storm in Addison County did manage to produce two tornadoes.

Of course nowadays, everybody has a camera on their phones, which they carry with them all the time. I actually doubt anybody would have noticed the Waltham tornado without Eller's good eye and presence of mind to take video.

This could be the beginning of an uptick in confirmed tornado reports in Vermont. Not necessarily because there are more tornadoes, but because the chances of somebody seeing and recording them has increased. 

Tomorrow, there is some risk of some scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Vermont.  It doesn't look like it will be a widespread outbreak, and tornadoes are NOT expected.