California Horror Gets Exponentially Worse; A National Gut Punch. Climate Related Disasters Are Overwhelming Our Abilities

Horrifying image of the California fires
from television station KTLA.

 Much if not most of Pacific Palisades, California is wiped out.  Aerial views of that area look like Hiroshima after the 1945 atomic bomb. 

Downtown Altadena, California is gone, as are many neighborhoods there. 

So far, five people are known to have died in the fire, but unfortunately I fully expect that toll to rise. One person was found dead, garden hose in hand, after unsuccessfully trying to save his home. 

So much that is familiar to local residents, and to an extent the rest of us are gone. The Reel Inn in Malibu, which had been a seafood restaurant destination for celebrities and visitors was destroyed after four decades in business.

The Palisades Charter High School, which you probably saw in movies like "Freaky Friday" and "Carrie," was also destroyed. 

The unique Bunny Museum in Altadena is history, too. 

The Getty Villa, home to 40,000 pieces of priceless art, was saved only because of preparation and firefighting. The grounds of the center burned, but crews had a policy of aggressively removing brush as it would try to take over the property. Since there wasn't all that much to burn, firefighters were able to keep flames out of the building. 

The Pacific Palisades fire is now described as the most destructive fire in Los Angeles history, Previously the worst fire in Los Angeles County history was the Sayre fire of November, 2008, which wiped out 604 structures in Sylmar.

This one was far, far worse, with 1,000 structures gone so far. That's a preliminary estimate. The actual number is probably quite a bit higher.

Yet another fire broke out Wednesday night in Studio City and the Hollywood Hills last night, which looks like it destroyed a few more homes.  Somehow, firefighters, after an intense 90-minute battle, got that fire largely contained before it could attack another large swath of Los Angeles.  Most of the evacuation orders with that fire have been lifted for now, fingers crossed. 

Somewhat calmer winds today are raising hopes that firefighters can begin containing some of the fires.

Hollywood has for decades cranked out more epic disaster movies and shows than anybody can count. Those movies were an escape. Now, reality is hitting us with real catastrophes that we thought just belonged on the big screen.  

When it becomes real like it did this week, it's a a national gut punch. 

These huge disasters keep coming, one after another, with more and more extremes and greater frequency.

I know those of us who don't live anywhere near California can't feel sorry for ourselves, given the suffering of thousands of people who have lost their homes. 

But it's still distressing to everyone to watch California burn, or North Carolina wash away, or Valencia, ,Spain to scour away in unprecedented floods, and on and on it goes. It takes a toll on all of humanity, really. 

CLIMATE, MEGA-DISASTERS AND RESOURCES

It's clear that climate-driven disasters like this one in California are overwhelming infrastructure designed for the climate we used to have a few decades ago, not the one we have now.  

The remains of a Christmas tree as seen through
the window of a burning home in California'
this week. 

In the old climate, the Los Angeles cataclysm we just saw shouldn't have happened. Yes, there have always been destructive wildfires in the region.  And yes, more people are now living in the way of those wildfires, making both fighting and fleeing the fires more difficult. 

Still, this fire shouldn't have been so awful.  But climate change made probably made it worse.

The two previous winters in Los Angeles were much wetter than average. That created lush growth in the steep brush lands that surround so many neighborhoods. Then, this winter, the rain failed. The lush growth turned to tinder. 

The rainy season should have started by now. It didn't. So when the Santa Ana winds howled, fires started and here we are.

Emergency officials knew days in advance a dangerous situation was brewing. In Pacific Palisades, three huge tanks, each with a million gallon capacity, were filled to the brim ahead of the fires. But firefighters used so much water so quickly to fight the flames that the tanks quickly emptied. Water pressure waned. Hydrants became almost useless. 

In some cases, they could only stand by and watch neighborhoods burn. 

Evacuations were chaotic, to say the least. The death toll could have been much worse as people fleeing got caught up in flames on narrow roads. People fled their cars on foot, and the abandoned cars blocked roads needed by firefighters to access the flames. Bulldozers had to be called in to shove the cars out of the way. 

This reminded me of the 2018 fire that destroyed virtually the entire city of Paradise, California, leveling 19,000 homes and other buildings. Eighty-five people died in that blaze, many of them trapped on winding, narrow mountain roads as they tried to flee. Homes in Paradise were in the woods, and not fire resistant. 

Those rebuilding in Paradise are keeping those issues in mind, changing roads, building houses out of materials that can ward off flames to an extent. They're keeping vegetation away from homes. 

That was an enormous undertaking in just one town. Imagine dealing with this in southern California given the scale of these new, ferocious fires.

It's not just California with fast-moving, out-of-season fires. On December 28, 2021, ferocious winds tore through the Boulder, Colorado area, pushing what became Colorado's worst wildfire in history.  Two people died and 1,000 or so homes were destroyed. 

It was another case of a strangely intense fire coming at an even stranger time of year, when Boulder is often covered in snow. 

It's not just fires. Climate-driven disasters are striking places that "shouldn't" have such extreme trouble. The extraordinary floods in western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene come to mind here.  Roads, neighborhoods, everything was overwhelmed by the unprecedented power of the water and floods. 

They couldn't handle it. Nobody could have. 

We're dealing with this here in Vermont, too. After the big floods of 2023 and 2024, we are thinking long and hard about how to deal with the inevitable next big flood, since storms seem to have gotten more intense.

Do we move people away from river valleys? Who do we move?  What types of bridges, culverts and drainage can we build to withstand floods, and can we afford all that?  Many of our most treasured cities, towns and villages are in flood plains. Can these communities survive? What if they can't? Will the Vermont we've gotten so used to over generations become unrecognizably different?

That's the type of thing that billions of people around the world are grappling with in the age of climate change. These thoughts, these worries, are punctuated by catastrophes like California this week. These huge disasters give us a sense of urgency, and dread and sadness.

I also hope these disasters also motivate us all into compassion and strength.  We need those more than ever. 

VIDEOS

Chaotic news clip from the Eaton fire as a reporter watches new fires keep breaking out everywhere around her, amid a cacophony of sirens. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that:

Palisades Branch Library up in flames. Also in the video what appears to be a church and a school destroyed. Again click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that

Remnants of burning house collapse on camera. Again, click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that: 

Footage of homes burning in one neighborhood, and people trying desperately with buckets and garden hoses trying desperately to save houses that hadn't started burning yet. No fire trucks in sight. Click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that. 

Monday PM Vermont Flood Update, This 'N That Edition. And Yes, Sigh, We're Under ANOTHER Flood Watch

For a change, sunny skies in Vermont today, but as
you can see in the photo, the haze from Canadian
wildfire smoke also returned. 

 The weather this Monday has been much calmer, albeit smoky in Vermont. Quite a change from exactly a seek ago, with the cataclysmic torrents and chaos we experienced. 

So it's a good chance to hit on a few things that have been interesting with our Flood Summer Of Discontent.

By the way, we're under yet ANOTHER flood watch, which is just unbelievable. More details on Tuesday's risks further down in this post. 

ANOTHER VERMONT FLOOD DEATH

I don't know if this qualifies as a second death caused by Vermont's flood, but no matter how you look at it, this is really tragic. 

Katie Hartnett, 25, of Burlington died Friday after she fell into the Huntington River in Richmond, Vermont, just upstream from the notorious Huntington Gorge. 

She apparently slipped on rocks and fell in sometime Friday. Her body was recovered Saturday. The river was running quite high on Friday, both from Monday's historic flood and torrential thunderstorms on Thursday evening that reinforced the power of the river's water. 

Not that it matters all that much, but Hartnett's passing might or might not be declared a disaster-related death. Much depends on the result of an autopsy and how FEMA defines the time period of the flood disaster, says VTDigger.

The popular Huntington Gorge is infamous for its treacherous currents. No fewer than 26 people have died there since 1950.

The other Vermont Summer Flood of '23 death was a 63 year old man who drowned in his Barre home. 

AN AWESOME FACEBOOK FLOOD HELP PAGE

Lots of people want to help with Vermont's flood recovery. Volunteers have been showing up in droves to help. It's heartwarming to see.

However, well-intentioned people sometimes don't have the experience to help in the way they want, and can just innocently get in the way.  Or they donate stuff that's not needed. Or the stuff is needed, but not in the location where people want to donate. Or somebody in some remote town or back road needs tons of help but nobody knows about the need.

Vermont Public's "Vermont Edition" noontime talk and call in show today highlighted an awesome resource. It's a Facebook page called VT Flooding 2023 Response and Recovery Mutual Aid.

The beauty of this new and now huge resource is it allows people to specifically target how and where help is needed. People can go on the page and ask for help. Such as "Hey, I live on such and such back road and need the mud dug out of my basement. Can anyone help?"

It's also great for people who have specific ways to help. "Hey, I have three dehumidifiers lying around my house in X Town.  Anyone down the road want to borrow them? If so, contact me."

And so forth.   

The Facebook page also has a whole bunch of local chat pages for specific towns and organizations. So if you live in, say Cabot and either want or need help, go to that chat page and find what you need.

The Response and Recovery Mutual Aid Facebook page already had 7,300 members (including me!) as of mid-afternoon Monday.  What a great idea this is!

AIR QUALITY

The air in Vermont has been getting steadily worse all day and I can see out my windows in St. Albans, Vermont the smoke and haze .

The air quality index was in the 90s around noon, which is considered "moderate" and just under the threshold of "unhealthy for sensitive people"

By 1:30 pm. it was firmly in the 120s and indeed unhealthy for those sensitive folks.  It kind of leveled off from there. 

This smoke will probably last well into Tuesday. Luckily, it won't get nearly as bad as the June 25-26 smoke attack in Vermont. That one brought the air quality index to around 200, which is quite unhealthy for everyone and arguably the worst pollution in Vermont history.

THE BURLINGTON RAIN HOLE

There appears to be just one place in Vermont that's gotten an unremarkable amount of rain so far this month That's Burlington.

Through Sunday, Burlington had received 3.69 inches of rain so far this month. For this point in the month, that's still less than an inch above normal. Judging by maps I saw total, I would say at the very least 95 percent of Vermont has seen four or more inches of rain so far this month. 

Click on map to make it bigger and easier to see.
Yellow on map depicts four inches or less of rain
so far this month. Only the Burlington, Vermont area
is in that category. Pink dots are areas with a whopping
10 inches or more of rain so far this month. 

Burlington received 0.97 inches of rain Sunday.  Williston, just one town over, reported 2.42 inches.  As a torrential thunderstorm approached Chittenden County last night, the National Weather Service in South Burlington promptly issued a flood warning for the area, including Burlington.

They knew this storm would be trouble. They were right. Except the trouble came everywhere except where they measure rainfall at the Burlington International Airport.  

The airport only got 0.23 inches out of that storm.  Meanwhile, less than two miles away, Shelburne Road in South Burlington was swamped by flooding. And pretty serious flash flooding hit places like Richmond and Bolton from that evening storm. 

Compare Burlington to Montpelier:  The Capital city has been drowned under 9.85 inches of rain so far this month, compared to the 2.22 inches they should have gotten by this point in July.

There's actually a very small but real chance that Burlington will come in below its normal July precipitation total of 4.06 inches. 

I don't have a great explanation as to why that happened. Although very humid air smacking into the Green Mountains is forced to go up and over the mountains, which wrings out extra moisture and heavier rain. 

UGH! NEW FLOOD WATCH!

The rain returns Tuesday. So does the risk of at least a few pockets of flash floods.  A new flood watch is in effect for all of Vermont, going from early Tuesday afternoon through late night. 

Expected rainfall rates could reach one inch per hour. That's a helluva lot, but less than the two inch per hour rates we saw in parts of Chittenden County Sunday evening. 

Still, one inch per hour can cause a lot of havoc when the ground is so saturated it can't absorb any more rain. Any rain we get Tuesday and Tuesday evening will just run off. 

We also do have a possibility of some severe storms Tuesday as well.  They won't be as widespread as they were Thursday. However some towns could experience damaging winds and some hail.  Not everyone will get nailed, but a handful of people might. 

It's way too soon to figure out who gets the potential severe weather and who doesn't. It's just like the potential flooding. The luck of the draw, basically. 

Much like Sunday, it looks like some downpours could come through Vermont between 1 a.m and a little after dawn Tuesday. Those early rains will only cause at most very isolated flood trouble. Then we get a break, only to see more scattered downpours break out in the late afternoon and lasting well into the evening.

Those late day storms are the ones we have to watch for localized flash floods. Computer models have trended a little upward since this morning regarding the amount of rain in the forecast. 

There are some actual glimmers of hope in the forecast beyond tomorrow night. 

One forecast I saw had something I have seen in ages: Two consecutive days in Vermont without rain. If that holds, and that's a big if,  the dry period would come Wednesday and Thursday, before we run into the risk of heavy rain Friday. 

There could be another dry period  Sunday or Monday. It's a long way off, so don't count on it. Still, nice to see! 

Another happy thing: We might, maybe, could be in for a bit of a break in the constant humidity. Wednesday won't be too bad, humidity wise. But i'll still get up into the low 80s. That's still warm-ish. 

We have a shot at a brief period of near or even slightly below normal temperatures over the weekend. Highs in many areas could stay below 80, and the humidity looks manageable then, too. 

Burlington has a chance of dipping below 60 degrees for the first time since June 23. We've had 245 consecutive days in which it's constantly been above 60 degrees.

That's 24 day stretch isn't the longest on record, but it's probably in the top 10 longest streak.  

Long range forecast suggest that any coolish period will be brief, and it will then turn very warm and probably humid again.  Those long range forecasts still call for some above normal rainfall, but those same forecasts are less bullish on those rain chances than they have been lately. 

No Rest For Weary Vermont: More Local Floods Friday, Much Bigger Threat Sunday

Lightning crackles in a thunderstorm well east of 
St. Albans Friday evening. Storms in Addison
County caused renewed flooding. 

UPDATE 2 PM SATURDAY

The fresh flooding in Addison County last night was even worse than I thought.

As VTDigger reports, a landslide destroyed a house.

Laurie Cox, one of Ripton's emergency management coordinators said the town's fire department was in the area evacuating people endangered by the rising Middlebury River. 

She said the town's fire chief was standing outside the house talking with the homeowner when the slide occurred, VTDigger reports.

"And right at that moment, the hillside collapsed, and house owner's truck got pushed right into the fire truck, and our fire chief was standing right in between them," Cox said. "Fortunately, it didn't quite come to where he would have been squished, really....I mean it literally could have killed him."

The affected family was house in an emergency shelter. Other homes in the area were evacuated due to high water from the river and the threat of more landslides. 

Ripton received a sizable 3.42 inches of rain overnight. 

Forecast updates for tomorrow's flood risk are due late this afternoon. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Boy, we just aren't catching a break here in Vermont.

On Friday, I thought we just might squeak through a day in the Green Mountain State with no new damage, but nope!  

Storms fired up in the evening, mostly across central Vermont, and at least in a few spots, caused renewed flooding.

The epicenter this time was in  Addison County, where parts of Route 7, Route 116 and Route 125 were closed around East Middlebury.  I'm sure there were other road washouts and damage around East Middlebury and Ripton due to up to three inches of rain in a short time Friday evening. 

There weren't many other reports - at least so far - of other major trouble elsewhere in Vermont from Friday evening's storms, which produced quite a light show from the lightning in those clouds after the sun set. 

This all follows the confirmation of a tornado Thursday in northern Rutland County.  In case you read one of my posts mentioning two tornadoes, take note of an important correction:  There was only ONE confirmed tornado NOT two. Apologies for yesterday's error. 

Today, I'm convinced we will get a break in the weather. An isolated storm might pop up over the mountains this afternoon, but anything that does get going will be pretty tame.  But, it's a short break, and we have much more trouble for Sunday

SUNDAY FLOOD WATCH

Another disturbance and another flood alert is up for almost all of Vermont for Sunday.  The incoming storm has similarities to the one that caused the calamity on Monday. But a very important note is we will receive much, much less rain as we did nearly a week ago.  

That's the good news, if you're hunting for any glimmers of hope.

The bad news - and there's always bad news these days - is that we will receive enough rain to almost surely create new flash flooding in some parts of Vermont.  The flood watch starts Sunday morning and goes well into the night. 

The watch covers all of Vermont except the immediate Champlain Valley.  

Total rainfall Sunday looks to be in the one to two inch range, but some unlucky folks could get more than three inches of rain.  A few lucky devils could get less  than an inch of rain.  It's going to be pretty variable, with big differences in rainfall across Vermont. 

Storms passing southeast of St. Albans, Vermont Friday
evening at sunset made the sky look like a painting. 

Given how wet and unstable the ground is now, there's more than enough rain coming for many of us  to set off more flash flooding. That could undo some of the repairs that have been started. 

It looks like the rain will come in two batches. One goes through in the morning. It'll be mostly a steady drenching rain for a few hours, with downpours embedded in it. While this first round might touch off some flooding, it'll mostly serve to pre-soak things further for Round 2

Round 2 comes through in the afternoon and evening as a line of potentially torrential rain. This batch of rain has the highest chance of causing new problems, especially if heavy showers hit the same spot repeatedly. 

As always, it's pretty much impossible this far ahead of the storm to figure out which towns get the heaviest rains and which are spared. 

If you are in a flood prone area, even areas that escaped high water Monday and Tuesday, remain vigilant tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Don't drive over flooded roads, of course.  It's always risky to do that, but even more so now. They've just been patched up, and a lot of those fixes are temporary just to the roads could be reopened pending more permanent repairs. 

That makes these areas more prone to washouts and damage. 

At this point, it looks like most of the main rivers in Vermont will not go into flood. Downtown Montpelier looks safe from a renewed inundation, but of course officials will be watching the Wrightsville Dam spillway.

People are pretty optimistic there won't  be an issue with that dam, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

One river that is flooding, and will continue to flood through this is the Otter Creek in Rutland and Addison counties. 

It's already flooding in Addison County, thank's to torrential rains Thursday and Friday in the watershed between Brandon and Middlebury. 

Further south, the Otter Creek is probably going to go back into flood stage at Center Rutland, but won't get as high as it did Monday and Tuesday. 

Lake Champlain has risen by two feet since the start of the month and is now at about 98 feet. It will probably go up some more. At this point, it doesn't look like it will hit the flood stage of 100 feet, but the way this summer is going, you never know. 

OTHER TROUBLE

Once we get through Sunday, there's more flood risks on Tuesday and possibly toward the end of the upcoming week.  We're still trapped in the same basic weather pattern that took hold in late June. 

Meteorologists are watching Tuesday's system, as it could slow down as it tries to move through New England, possibly prolonging the rain. No guarantee that will happen, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

It's too soon to tell whether the rain late next week will be a troublemaker. Yet again, though, there's potential, so meteorologists are watching that one, too.

OTHER NEWS

As expected, President Biden approved Vermont Gov. Phil Scott's request for a major disaster declaration for Vermont. That opens the door for more federal assistance to help with the recovery.  I just hope if there's new damage Sunday or in the upcoming days, that will be covered.

Typically, disaster declarations are amended if more damage occurs days after the main show due to a persistent weather pattern, as we are experiencing here. 

In a sign of the times, downtown Montpelier streets are close to general traffic, at least for now. They've done that to give room for emergency vehicles and volunteers to help with the cleanup. 

You also better check whether your town is still under a boil water notice. A lot of water treatment plants were disrupted, and drinking water might have some issues. 

Despite the fact that today is going to be rather sunny and quite warm, I'd continue to stay out of swimming holes on the state's rivers and brooks. Water is still running fast and high, contaminants are probably still in the water, and debris on the river beds could cause injuries. 

If you want to help, Vermont Public has a great page guiding you toward ways you can be Vermont Strong. Click on this link for more.