Dawn T-Storms Hit Vermont Again As Showery Regime Continues

After early morning thunderstorms, the sun came out
to make the flowers happy around my tool
shed today in St. Albans, Vermont. 

It was a rinse and repeat kind of morning in northern Vermont as dawn thunderstorms rattled people awake at or before dawn for the second time in four days. 

Southern Vermont had its share of showers and storms Monday. 

The culprit was similar to previous two event: A relatively small disturbance from the Midwest riding up and over a ridge of high pressure parked over the southeastern United States.

The lightning and thunder in northern Vermont this morning wasn't as frequent as Sunday's but it still was noticeable. Like on Sunday, the storms swiftly moved out.

But unlike on Sunday, the skies cleared out very nicely. By 7:30 a.m. it was beautifully clear and fresh and mild in western Vermont, and those clearing skies were heading east.

Which means we're in for a gorgeous day right?

Wrong. Of course not.

The rest of the day won't be a washout. And southern Vermont will actually have a pretty nice day.

The same disturbance that caused this morning's showers and storms will drag a pool of chilly air aloft overhead this afternoon. The contrast between the warm surface and cold air several thousand feet above us will inspire updrafts.

Those will form those billowy, kind of towering clouds you often see in the spring and summer.  

Any showers in southern Vermont should be very few and far between. Many of you down there won't see any rain at all, so yeah, we'll call it a nice day, with partly sunny skies down there. 

Northern Vermont west of the Green Mountains can expect slightly more numerous showers, but, they, too, will be hit and miss. Some places won't get wet again at all. Those that do will only endure brief bouts of rain between dry periods.

Up in the Northeast Kingdom, showers will become pretty widespread and frequent this afternoon. Some might contain rumbles of thunder, small hail and brief heavy downpours. 

So if you like fine spring weather in Vermont, today will range from pretty gorgeous in Bennington to pretty unpleasant in Newport. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Friday looks like we'll have the kind of May weather we were dreaming of all winter - partly sunny with highs in the 65 to 70 degree range. Saturday might be somewhat cloudier, but with temperatures similar to Friday.

At this point, Sunday seems like it might be showery and cooler before pleasant weather arrives early in the week. The weather pattern is really off and on, though, so it'll probably get showery again by next Wednesday. 

The Plains and Midwest continue to deal with bouts of severe weather and tornadoes, and that looks like it will continue into next week. We've been pretty much getting the remnants of those storms, and they're weaker by the time they get here, which is why the weather pattern has been active, but not extreme. 

 

Murky Vermont Sunday Morning, And A Murky, As In Iffy Forecast For The Week

"The triplets" as I call these three big trees in my St.
Albans yard, stand wet and tall in the fog Sunday 
morning. The murk sort of symbolizes the 
uncertainty and question marks in the
Vermont weather forecast for the week ahead. 

 Dense fog and drizzle has graced us here in Vermont this Sunday morning, especially in the Champlain Valley.

Call the murky air a sign that portends a weather forecast for the week that has a lot of unknowns.  

So I can give you the broad brush, and the changes in what we can expect:

1. Heat Muted

It's still going to be awfully warm for the beginning of March in Vermont, but clouds and rain chances are taking the oomph out of what had been expected to be wildly toasty weather. 

Today, those clouds are stubborn. Even if and when the fog diminishes, it will stay mostly to completely cloudy. That will hold temperatures to within a few degrees of 50. Again, balmy for the beginning of March, but not record breaking. 

Monday gives us the best chances of record highs. Original forecasts had called for a lot of sun, which would have boosted us into the 60s, which is ridiculous for March 4. However, we don't know how much the clouds will clear out, so meteorologists are now calling for highs in the 50s to around 60. That still might be good enough to break record highs. 

A weak storm Tuesday that we didn't think would encompass most of Vermont now looks like it might. That would hold daytime temperatures down to a still mild 50 degrees. Wednesday looks unseasonably mild, too, but I'm unsure how much sun we'll get.

By the way, night times will be super warm, too, staying well above freezing most areas. That will help turn back roads into serious mud bogs again

2. Storminess 

I've already hinted above about a change in the overall weather. We had a quiet February with no real storms until the final couple days of the month. Now,  a spray of frequent low pressure systems has started passing over us, or nearby.  The storms might not be blockbusters, but they will keep meteorologists on their toes, Especially since something will be coming through every other day, or close to that. 

The first in the series went through yesterday and last night. We have the next one Tuesday, with that light rain. The best chances of rain are in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont with that one. 

Other bouts of precipitation are quite possible again Thursday and over next weekend. How much precipitative falls and where is still an open question. Overall, it seems like the odds are the more south and east you go in the Green Mountain State, the more you'll get. 

The weather pattern will probably stay active after next weekend, too.

3. Snow Comes Back?

Notice that after Tuesday, I keep referring to "precipitation" and not just rain. It's only March, after all, and Vermont is still prone to doozies for snowstorms. 

The biggest snowstorm on record for Vermont hit the far southern parts of the state in 1947. And seven of Burlington's top 20 biggest snowstorms hit in March. 

Don't worry, I don't anticipate snowmaggedon, or anything like California's Sierra Nevada mountains are currently getting. 

However, as temperatures drift downward later in the week, these storms could produce snow.  There's not a big supply of cold air to work with later in the week. And it is March, so it's a little warmer than it would be mid-winter anyway. 

Which means we could get snow, or rain, or both with these systems. If it does snow, the best chances are up in the mountains. Which is OK, because Vermont's suffering ski areas could use a bit of a late season boost.