Epic Lake Effect Snows Are Now Beginning To Blast Parts Of New York State

Forecasts call for up to five feet of lake effect snow
near Watertown, New York and four feet south of
Buffalo by Monday. 

 Areas around the Great Lakes - especially in New York - are gearing up for an epic lake effect snowstorm. 

Between now and Monday, and probably beyond that, feet of snow will fall east of Lake Ontario, and off of Lake Erie south of Buffalo.

An area near Watertown, New York was forecast to receive more than five feet of snow between this morning and Monday morning. Towns south of Buffalo, New York can expect close to four feet of snow.

The lake effect squalls are expected to be intense enough so that the blizzard conditions would be punctuated by thunder and lightning at times.

Sunday's NFL Buffalo Bills home game could be interesting. The stadium is 10 miles south of Buffalo, right on the edge of where the heaviest lake squalls will set up. So it will either be OK, or a blizzard during the game. 

Other big lake effect snowfalls are happening along the southern shores of Lake Superior, in parts of Michigan, in southern Ontario and northern Ohio.

The New York squalls are powerful enough so that their remnants have started making it into Vermont this evening and should continue to do so through the weekend. That means a few flurries in the valleys, but perhaps a few inches of snow in some of the Green Mountains. 

The most accumulation will probably be near Jay Peak, which is great because that mountain received less snow Thursday than did resorts in central and southern Vermont. Kinda evens things up a little.

The ingredients in place are perfect for these enormous lake effect storms.

An oddly toasty autumn left Lakes Erie and Ontario much warmer than normal.  Now, cold winds are blowing across the lakes and will continue to do so for days. 

The bigger the temperature contrast between the lake water temperature and the air the more powerful the lake effect snows become.  The upcoming long stretch of weather with those persistent chilly westerly and northwesterly winds means a lot of snow can pile up in some spots. 

This won't be the biggest lake effect snow storm ever, but it really is a humdinger. 

The worst of course, was in December, 2022. Buffalo endured 37 hours of continuous blizzard conditions with winds as high as 72 mph.  The blizzard's onslaught came on suddenly, trapping people outdoors and in cars.  Some 41 people died from the storm's effects in and around Buffalo. A total of 52 inches of snow buried the city.

In mid-November, 2014, an intense lake effect snow dumped up to seven feet of snow on towns south of Buffalo, causing numerous roof collapses, and blocking roads to the point where gas and groceries were in short supply. That storm claimed 11 lives.

It's possible climate change is making some of these Great Lakes effect snowfall worse. The lakes stay warmer and more ice free than they used to in the late autumn and early winter. That contrast I mentioned between the unusually warm waters and cold winter air can make the storms more intense. 

Some Last Nor'easter Updates, And A Nasty Christmas Storm?

A man was trapped for 10 hours in this car, which had
been entirely buried in the snow near Owego, NY.

 It's cold this Saturday morning with most of Vermont and surrounding areas seeing subzero temperatures early on. 

The exception was the mountain tops, as we had a big temperature inversion going on.  

The normally frigid summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire was at a reasonable 18 above, and the summit o Vermont's Mount Mansfield was at 21 degrees. 

On calm, clear winter nights, cold air drains readily into the valleys, so the summits turn into the warm spots. The contrast was even bigger than usual this morning.  The snow cover in valleys that got hit by that snowstorm earlier this week are most prone to the cold.

Speaking of which, Vermont might have broken the state record for the most snow in a 24-hour period.  Peru, in southern Vermont, reported 44.8 inches of new snow Wednesday.  Investigators will look into whether the snow was measured properly there.

If so, it will set the new state record for most snow in a 24 hour period. The current record is 42 inches at Jay Peak. 

The snowstorm turned into a harrowing experience for one man in central New York.  His car went off the road in the torrential snowstorm, then the car got buried by a passing snow plow, whose driver didn't see him . 

The car broke down, so the driver had no heat.  He tried calling 911 but the connection was weak.  Police did launch a search for him, but the motorist was stuck for 10 hours and suffered from hyperthermia and frostbite.

The man was near death, but finally, a New York State Trooper searching for him thought he'd run across a row of mailboxes that were buried.  The cop dug anyway, and found the car and the man, probably less than an hour before the motorist would have died.

NEW, BAD STORM?

For the next few days here in Vermont, we'll see a warming trend with no exciting weather. Small disturbances will trigger snow showers now and then, which could be mixed with rain in the warmer valleys.

But there are signs of trouble for Christmas Eve and Christmas.

Early indications call for the risk of a squirt of very warm air, and the possibility of heavy rain and damaging winds. 

It's all uncertain at this point, but if things come together, there could be flooding from the thaw and rains in places that got a lot of snow. High winds could bring down power lines and trees, too. 

This is still something that's just coming together, so we don't know the details or even if this will happen. But stay tuned, this could pose some holiday trouble.