Hardcore Winter Finally Arrives In New England

A debris flow damaged this California home amid a 
big storm hitting that region today. The same storm or its
offspring could create some "interesting" weather in 
New England early next week.
Photo via twitter  @mcrfd

 New England winters are almost always harsh, or at least parts of them are.

After a long wait, the traditional nasty, unpleasant to say the least winter weather is arriving right now. 

As previously advertised, a broken off piece of the Polar Vortex is coming straight at us and will make things unhappy outdoors for the next couple of days. After that, a possible nasty storm.

More on the storm in a moment, but first the cold. 

A storm that overnight brought snow (and thundersnow!) to parts of North Carolina is headed out to sea and will become a powerful ocean storm. 

It will move northward, well off the coast. And turn big. Really big. 

The storm will be too far away to cause much havoc in New England. However, the difference in air pressure between that big offshore storm and Arctic high pressure up in northern Ontario will propel sharp, strong north winds through here, increasing today and continuing through Friday at least. 

Temperatures will fall here in Vermont all day as the winds ramp up.  By tonight, you'll really feel the wind chills out there. 

Those wind chills will make the air feel as cold as 25 below late tonight and tomorrow. Actual temperatures will go to near zero overnight, and only rise a few degrees during the day Friday as those cold north winds continue to make the bare trees roar. Expect gusts in the 25-30 mph range. 

Skies will remain cloudy Friday, and there will continue to be some snow showers around. In the mountains, a couple or few inches of windblown, light powder might be added to the snow pack. 

Yet Friday won't be the day for great outdoor recreation, given those awful wind chills. 

The wind will be calmer Saturday and the core of the polar vortex piece with its frigid air will be beginning to depart. 

Saturday will still be teeth-chattering, but a few degrees warmer than Friday. Plus the wind will be a little calmer. And some breaks of sun will help. 

With at least partly clear skies and calm winds Saturday night, temperatures will go way below zero in most of Vermont and the rest of northern New England. 

Temperatures will finally start to get closer to normal Sunday afternoon.

This won't be the most epic cold wave ever, but it is a pretty typical blast for this time of year in this part of the world. But that doesn't make it any more comfortable. 

Then there's a potential new problem after that.

EARLY WEEK STORM?

While it's warming up, somewhat, there's trouble on the horizon. Let's put it this way: What happens in California doesn't stay in California.

As I wrote yesterday, the Golden State is receiving less than golden weather. A storm, accompanied by an atmospheric river, is battering California with torrential rains, mudslides, debris flows, damaging winds and feet of snow in the mountains. 

Sounds wonderful, huh?

Energy from that storminess will create a new storm that will start somewhere near Colorado Friday night and then move east to somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday.  It'll lay down yet another stripe of snow across the Midwest as it makes this move. 

Then what? Nobody is actually sure what the storm will do once it reaches the Mid-Atlantic States. But there's a lot of early signals this could turn into a big storm involving plenty of snow in the those Mid-Atlantic States and New England. 

Some of the models spin up a really strong storm.  Early indications are the bulk of the snow would fall south of Vermont, but that's is by NO means guaranteed. 

We won't have a good handle on what this storm will do for a good couple of days yet. It seems likely some snow will fall somewhere in Vermont during this, but where and how much is a great question. Same questions exists for the rest of New England. Stay tuned!