Saturday, January 16, 2021

Slush Or Cement: Mixed Storm Pasting Vermont As Expected

As expected, we're getting an elevation dependent storm
today. Lots of rain, with wet snowflakes mixed in across
the valleys, and a decent 6-12 inches in higher spots,
especially above 2,000 feet.
 It turns out, it's going to be almost precisely the Vermont Saturday they've been predicting. 

Depending upon where you are, you are and will be getting a raw, cold rain, or that raw, cold rain will be mixed with lots of little slush balls coming down, or you will be pasted by "wet cement" snow, that awful heavy stuff.

That "wet cement" is already exacting a toll. Green Mountain Power reported 11,400 people without electricity this morning, mostly in southern Vermont

Since the moisture supply with this storm is pretty good, we'll get a fair amount of whatever will come from the sky. 

It's still looking very much like this is an elevation-dependent storm. 

As of 7:30 a.m, snow reports are sparse, but web cams are showing a variety of conditions. Most of Interstates 89 and 91 looked either just wet or at worst slushy at low and mid elevations.  

High elevations web cams along  Interstate 89 were not in service, but weather radar did show all snow falling in mid and high elevations. 

Those few of us who are above 2,000 feet above sea level will get a nice storm - at least six inches, probably closer to a foot in many spots up there in the Green Mountains.  Already, as of 7 a.m. this morning, Magic Mountain ski area in Londonderry, Vermont had already collected at least five inches of snow.

A high elevation station in far southern Vermont reported 8.7 inches of new, wet snow, with power outages in the area. (Thanks for the report via Twitter, Mitch @Vermontsterwx )!

I also noticed there are chain requirements for vehicles going up and over the mountains along Route 9 in far southern Vermont. 

It looks like elevations at and below 1,000 feet will get mostly rain, mixed with wet snow at times, through today.  I don't expect much at all to pile up today in these locations. 

Indeed, as of 7:30 a.m., it looked like anybody at or under 1,000 feet above sea level in Vermont had gotten mainly rain so far.  I noticed Knapp Airport, near Barre, at a 1,165 foot elevation was getting snow as of 7 a.m, but it was 33 degrees there - very marginal indeed.

Even so, some snowflakes are making it down to lower elevations, but are not accumulating. Some wet snow was mixing with rain at the Burlington airport, at an elevation of 331 feet above sea level. Same was true at my St. Albans, Vermont home, right around 650 feet above sea level, a mix of light rain and light, wet snow at 7:30 a.m. 

This state of affairs will probably continue most of the day, unless we manage to get some colder air working in aloft, which seems iffy. 

It'll also depend on how heavy the precipitation is at any given time. During periods of heavier stuff, a little cold air might be drawn in from aloft to change things to snow.  During lighter periods chances are it will go back to a chilly light rain. 

This storm also seems to be so far focusing even more than usual on south and east facing slopes.  The moist winds are hitting those slopes and unleashing pretty heavy precipitation.  Places west of mountains, like the Champlain Valley, have only see very light rain and snow so far, at least as of 7:30 this morning. 

If you're asking how much snow your particular town will get, I don't think anybody can give you a good answer, other than you'll likely get a few inches of this slush or cement. 

Frankly, this is more typical of the type of storm we get in Vermont during November or late March and early April.  It's not the nice fluffy snow we're used to in January. 

Most of the storm's rain or snow will come down between now and the middle to late afternoon today, as the bulk of the storm's moisture moves overhead. 

For while this morning and early afternoon, there might be a few strong wind gusts along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Combined with a good accumulation of slush on trees and power lines, the electricity could go out in a few locations as a result. 

Normally, when a storm like this passes by, we get some good snows on the western slopes of the Green Mountains, along the spine of those mountains and often in the Northeast Kingdom

That will pretty much be the case, but of course with an unseasonably warm wrinkle. 

Usually when winds shift to the northwest behind a winter storm, the temperature drops quite a bit, and those back side snows are light and fluffy. 

Not this time. There's not a lot of cold air to tap into, so it will stay relatively warm well into Sunday. Some places in the valleys will probably be a bit above freezing much of the day on Sunday. 

That means the snow coming tonight and tomorrow will also be relatively wet.  The little bits of snow closer to Lake Champlain with this might actually mix with rain drops into the day Sunday. At least it will be cold enough so that a little snow might accumulate all the way down to valley floors. 

Snow will continue to pile up in the northern and central Green Mountains Sunday.  I wouldn't be surprised to see another six inches or more between midnight tonight and Sunday night for the Green Mountains.

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