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| The forecast maps all have a big storm off or along the East Coast early next week, but what does that mean for snow in Vermont? Too soon to tell. |
The trick is, exactly where?
The storm is headed due east, from Colorado through the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic coast to probably New England. From there, it'll form into a nor'easter along or off the New England coast.
On its way east, it could give Chicago its biggest snowstorm in five years or so, with up to a foot possible today through Sunday.
In Washington DC, they could have their biggest snowstorm of the past few years. If it doesn't go over to rain, they could get half a foot of snow.
It also looks inevitable that a stripe of sow, some heavy, will make its way on northward into New England.
Of all the states in the potential path of the storm, I'd rate Vermont as having the most uncertain forecast with this one.
Some of the models and forecasts I've seen this morning take most of the snow east of the Green Mountain State, leaving us with nothing to show from what will be a relatively impressive storm.
Other models bring a nice slug of moisture and snow across the entire state on Tuesday, promising several inches of snow for everybody.
As the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes this morning, the guidance overnight has been more bullish for snow in Vermont than previous runs.
I don't know if this is a real trend, or what a lot of us call "windshield wipering." That's when all those computer models, not yet having a good handle on what might happen, keep changing their mind in each new run, which usually come once every six hours or so.
"Aw, it's going to miss!," the models say early in the morning. At noon, it's "Oh, wait! Look at that band of snow we think will come into Vermont." Then later. "Oh, I don't know, that band of moisture looks unimpressive." A few hours later, "What a perfect storm track to dump heavy Vermont snow!"
You get the picture. You can't rely on one model, or one batch of models. Meteorologists look for trends, and disregard computer forecasts that don't make a lot of sense, give the current state of the atmosphere.
I think part of the trouble forecasting this thing right now is, the storm coming in from the west won't make a nice, clean transfer to a new storm off the coast to become a nor'easter.
It seems like there's more moving parts than usual, and it's hard to pick out where a storm center will organize along or off the coast and how organized that storm will be.
I think the hard working meteorologists out there will be better able to pin down what might happen here in Vermont once we get into Sunday and Monday morning.
By then, there will be better samples of what the atmospheric dynamics are, and how all those pieces will fit together.
The bottom line is, for now, don't bet the farm on the prospects of Vermont snowstorm on or around Tuesday. It could happen, so it's worth listening and watching for further updates.
Before that we've still got the cold air to contend with.
In northern and central Vermont, it wasn't as cold this morning as forecast. Clouds, wind and snow showers helped prevent the temperature from really bottoming out. Southern Vermont, where skies cleared and winds were lighter, were colder. I saw reports of 9 below in Rutland and 10 below in Bennington.
Burlington, meanwhile, still hasn't managed to get below zero yet this winter.
I think Burlington will finally get there tonight. The core of the coldest air aloft is heading away from us. But we have a better chance for light winds and clearer skies this evening, which increases the chances that temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset.
They won't have far to fall, either, as highs today will only be in the low teens.
By the way, I have some potential bad news for snow powder hounds out there. It appears we might get a warmer storm of mixed precipitation and even rain in about a week.
We'll deal with what's coming up in the next few days, then begin to worry about that other storm later on.
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