Friday, January 1, 2021

Vermont Storm Update: Still Looks A Yucky "Everything" Storm

Our winter staple, the National Weather Service snow
prediction map. The most snow with the upcoming storm
will be in northern Vermont, where less sleet and
freezing rain will mix in compared to southern Vermont 
The weather remains quiet today as we gear up for one of the few winter storms we've had this mild season.  

The forecast for the storm remains on track for wet snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain, the whole nine yards. Expect lousy driving conditions starting later tonight and continuing through Saturday. 

As I mentioned yesterday, with temperatures so close to 32 degrees through a large column of the atmosphere with this storm, anything can happen. That means the forecast bust potential is high. 

Certain areas could get more or less snow that forecast, or more or less ice than forecast, or a difference in the amount of plain rain that falls. 

Given those caveats, here's what the experts like those at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington think. 

Snow will come in southwest to northeast across the state tonight, to be followed by a mix of sleet, then freezing rain working northward. 

Northern areas should expect more snow than points south, since there will be less of a mixing up there. Sleet will probably mix in all the way to the Canadian border, but freezing rain is less likely up there. 

Southern Vermont should get more of a lousy mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain with this.  Luckily, it still looks like freezing rain won't be enough to bring down trees and power lines.

At this point, Saturday morning looks like it will feature a mix of light sleet and freezing rain, with maybe a cold rain in the lower elevations, especially in the Champlain Valley south of Burlington and the lower Connecticut River valley. 

Colder air coming in aloft, but not so much at the surface, means precipitation will flip to a wet snow during the day Saturday.   That might be the period when the most snow falls, especially in northern Vermont. 

There might be enough slush accumulating to cause a few tree and power line issues in the north, but I don't think it will be anything widespread. 

It will just be a pain to shovel this snow, so it will be so wet and heavy. 

When all is said and done, it broadly looks like three to six inches of snow and slush and schmutz will accumulate north of Route 2, with two to four inches south of that highway. 

This isn't saying much, but this will probably be the deepest snow accumulation of the winter so far in northwestern Vermont. So it will finally look like winter, instead of the endless November stick season look we've been in since, well, November. 

This storm, by the way, is covering a pretty impressive amount of real estate. Winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings and even a few ice storm warnings are a continuous path from Texas to Maine with this storm.


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