Vermont Weekend Storm: Still Lots Of Snow Vs. Rain Questions

Here's the forecast snow map for the weekend storm
via the National Weather Service in South Burlington
Looks like the mountains will be the big winners
with this 

Rain or snow? I don't know. 

But let's take a crack at it. 

As I look at forecast discussions from the National Weather Service in South Burlington, predictions for the exact track of the upcoming storm are waffling back and forth by less than 50 miles.

That's not much, and often would not make much of a difference in the weather forecast.  

Since temperatures are going to be so marginal late tonight and Saturday, slight differences in the storm's track make all the difference for many of us between mostly rain and mostly snow.

The bottom line is elevation will really matter with this storm. No matter what happens, mountain and hill towns will probably get quite a big more snow than the valleys 

Here's the problem: If the storm center heads north up the Hudson and Champlain Valleys, like a lot of forecasts indicated Thursday evening, it'll be mostly rain in Vermont.  If this goes up the Connecticut River Valley instead, as many of the forecasts indicate this morning, there will still be some rain, but a greater share of the storm will be snow. 

As it stands now, it's looking like mid and high elevation towns could be the big winners with six or more inches of snow. The biggest losers in terms of snow will probably be towns closest to Lake Champlain and closest to the Connecticut River south of St. Johnsbury. 

The initial thump of precipitation looks to come late tonight and Saturday morning, according to the National Weather Service. That's when snow might really pile up in the mountains, if it stays just cold enough. Meanwhile, valleys will probably muddle through with a cold rain or a depressing rain/snow mix. 

After a lull Saturday afternoon, the storm will move into Quebec, colder air will come in and anybody who gets any precipitation will see snow. 

However, this back side snow will favor the summits and western slopes of the Green Mountains and probably the Northeast Kingdom. Several inches will pile up there between Saturday evening and Monday morning. 

Areas right near Lake Champlain, and in western Rutland county, as well as the lower Connecticut River Valley, will again miss out on most of the action Saturday night through Sunday night. 

Next week, winter finally hits Vermont, more than a month late. It won't be extreme by any measure, but daytime temperatures will stay in the 20s, and lows will be between 5 and 15 degrees.  None of this March in December and January stuff we've dealt with. 

Weak little systems will come by every other day or so, tossing down some flurries in those relatively snow-free valleys, while piling up a few more inches along the western slopes and summits of the Greens. And in the Northeast Kingdom. 

This whole scenario, starting tonight and lasting through next week, will finally grow the snow pack to reasonable, albeit not incredible levels over the next week. 

There's currently only 14 inches of snow on the ground near the top of Mount Mansfield. I think that's the least for this time of year since the super warm January of 1995. Normally, in mid-January, there would be 42 inches or so of snow on the ground up there. 

In about a week, I'm guessing the snow depth atop Mount Mansfield will be closer to average. Not all the way there, but closer, anyway.