Climate Change Exposes Canadian Economic Vulnerability

This map shows an expected 200 to 300 millimeters (7 to 11
inches) of rain in the four days ending tomorrow in
parts of British Columbia, Canada. This will make
an ongoing huge flood disaster there even worse.

 Earlier this month, record flooding blasted through much of British Columbia, Canada, wrecking countless homes and businesses.

Perhaps worse, it destroyed miles of highways and rail lines through the western Canadian province, and that could badly hurt the entire Canadian economy. 

Meanwhile, this weekend and early in the week, another atmospheric river is causing more flooding and destruction in the same areas. 

The British Columbian flooding and the disruptions it is causing are another sign that we are all more vulnerable than we think we are. 

We don't imagine the long term effects of these climate-induced disasters until they happen. We lack the imagination to fully anticipate the greater consequences to come after the immediate effects of any particular climate disaster. 

In this case, the flooding could put a real damper on the GDP of the entire nation of Canada. Geography is not Canada's friend in the age of climate change. 

As Reuters notes, 

"The majority of Canadian exports, which account for nearly exports, which account for nearly one-third of the country's GDP, travel to the Pacific coast to reach Asian markets. 

But the supply chain route relies on two rail lines and a handful of highways through the Rocky Mountains and rugged British Columbia interior to the Port of Vancouver. 

'Geology did not give Canada a lot of options and funneling a huge amount of exports down the Fraser Canyon increases our vulnerability, said Barry Prentice, professor of supply chain management at University of Manitoba.

The Fraser Canyon, which stretches from B.C.'s high interior plateau, through the Coast Mountains to the lower mainland, suffered some of the most severe highway washouts during the storm. It was also ravaged by a wildfire this summer that destroyed a town and closed road and rail routes."

The upcoming new storm is once again focusing on the Fraser Canyon, causing added damage and stalling efforts to pick up the pieces from the last storm. 

 According to Forbes:

"Although this forthcoming storm is expected to be less intense than the previous one, British Columbia has barely had time to recover from the flooding. So, the incumbent storm....will likely exacerbate ongoing flooding and washouts. It will likely increase the number of displaced residents, which approached 18,000 individuals last week and disproportionately impacted First Nation communities that predominantly exist in rural areas."

One example of the extreme transportation disruptions in 
British Columbia, Canada due to this month's record flooding
Image is from the BC Ministry of Transportation and
Infrastructure

Atmospheric rivers off the Pacific Ocean have always hit British Columbia and have often caused floods. With climate change, the atmosphere can hold more moisture now that it is warmer, The more moisture, the heavier the rain. 

The atmospheric river storms themselves are warmer, too. In the winter, these systems take the form of heavy snowstorms and blizzards in high elevations. That snow eventually slowly melts and the runoff is manageable. 

Now, the rain falls at much higher elevations in these warm storms, and the water runs off in giant gushes, contributing to the flooding. 

The summer's fires, and the flooding this month which wiped out key rail and road lines through British Columbia's mountains to the rest of the nation.

As Reuters notes, the easiest way to get goods from British Columbia to the rest of Canada is through the Fraser Canyon, and that is getting more and more untenable. Same is true for Canada's export market, since much of the nation's goods head west through the Fraser Canyon to ports in and around Vancouver on the Pacific Coast. 

Vancouver handles nearly 20 percent of Canada's global trade. 

Climate change will continue to exacerbate these disasters. Canada is going to have to figure out how to make these rail and road passages more resilient, and they're going to need to add redundancy to its transportation network.   British Columbia's experience is probably a good window into the fact that many parts of the world are going to have to adapt to climate change in big ways. 

Reuters said Canada will have to rethink its export market, sending more good south to the United States and east toward Europe. That, instead of west toward the more lucrative Asian markets. 

That's not to say the entire Canadian economy is in ruin from this. Far from it.  It's a large, resilient, wealthy, well-run nation. Imagine if the same set of climate circumstances hit a poorer, more dysfunctional nation.

As it is, even before this weekend's atmospheric river, the floods in British Columbia had caused at least 7.5 billion dollars in damage. The publication Business in Vancouver reported the Bank of Montreal cut its prediction for the  provinces growth in GDP this year from 5.3 percent to 3.8 percent, just because of the flooding earlier this month.  The renewed flooding ongoing now won't help. 

By the way, there was lesser, but still destructive flooding this month in parts of Canada's eastern seaboard, too. 

It's bad enough that a global pandemic, economic forces and bad political decisions are gumming up the works in global trade.  Climate change is going to be an increasing factor. We are going to have to get our act together here.