First Winter Storm Watch Of Season In Parts Of Vermont

The National Weather Service snow prediction map is little
changed since yesterday. Areas in yellow or orange can
expect more than six inches of snow by Saturday. 

 With overall forecasts unchanged since late yesterday afternoon, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has pulled the trigger and issued winter storm watches in parts of northern Vermont and New York. 

The winter storm watch goes from during the day Friday into Saturday. It covers northern Vermont north of Route 2, except in the Champlain Valley where the watch includes all of Franklin County but excludes Grand Isle and Chittenden counties. 

The watch also extends down the western slopes of the Green Mountains down to the slopes southeast of Middlebury.

At this point, everybody in the watch area can expect four to ten inches of snow by Saturday afternoon. 

The breakdown:

Although today, Thanksgiving, is, or at least was, expected to be dry, clouds and a few sprinkles have run out ahead of the main show that's coming in from the west.  That means you might have to deal with those very light showers today, but they won't amount to anything. You should be fine if you need some outdoor exercise to work off today's huge meal.

The real fun starts late tonight when a cold front marches in from the west. Light rain and wet snow will break out, with the snow mostly in the higher elevations. 

As the cold front passes and a storm forms along it as it heads toward Maine, winds will decidedly turn and become from the northwest. By late afternoon, most of us will see snow falling.

The storm will blossom and head north toward the eastern tip of Maine and on into Canada.

That sets up the big upslope snows we've been talking about for the past couple of days. 

The worst of it will come through Friday night and probably into Saturday morning. On the summits and western slopes, it will snow hard at times. Combine that with northwest winds gusting as high as 35 mph and you have some real travel trouble in the mountains. 

You definitely want to be extra careful driving in this one.  First of all, we're not used to driving in snow. It's been awhile. 

Ground temperatures are still fairly warm, and for many of us, this will start as rain.  As temperatures fall and snow whips up, the water that had been on the roads will freeze, forming a nasty layer of ice pavement in many areas. Then snow will pile up on top of that. 

I'd postpone driving through mountain passes until at least Saturday.  These are the usual trouble spot, like Interstate 89 east of Montpelier, Route 17, Route 125, Route 15, Route 105, those kinds of places,, among others.

Early guestimates on snow totals remain similar to those issued last night. Right along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, there probably will be an inch or less, except maybe more way up by the Canadian border. 

But just go inland less than a mile, and you'll see two or three inches along Route 7 from about Rutland north, with four or five inches by the time you get up to Georgia or St. Albans.

The western slopes and parts of the Northeast Kingdom still seem to be in for a good six to 10 inches. More than a foot of snow still seems like a good bet on the summits of mountains like Mount Ellen, Camels Hump, Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak. 

The northwestern Adirondacks also look like they'll get a decent six to 10 inches.  By the way, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine have also been put under winter storm watches. 

The snow will stick around for quite awhile after this. Colder than normal temperatures will continue for most of next week, meaning it will be below freezing all day most days, or barely above freezing in warmer valleys.

We also have to watch another system that could come close enough to give some more snow to us around Monday.