Quick Update: Typical November Inclement Weather, Still Question Marks For Next Week

Empty garden: As November rolls on with unsettled weather,
my St. Albans perennial gardens take on that bare winter look.

 Wow, it's so much balmier this morning here in Vermont than it was yesterday!  

We certainly got hit by a warm front. Early yesterday morning temperatures were close to 20 degrees, now they're above 50.  

The temperature roller coaster is going to continue as a cold front is close on the heels of that warm front. 

It'll stay windy, especially in the Champlain Valley until the cold front gets here this afternoon with a batch of rain that will move west to east across the region. Not a biggie, with most of us in line to get between a quarter and a half inch of rain, with more in the mountains.

The warm temperatures will disappear overnight as we get back to near or below freezing by Friday morning. On Friday, we'll be enjoying the usual November weather of clouds, chilly breezes, snow flurries and snow showers. It won't amount to anything in the valleys but the mountain tops could pick up a few inches of snow. 

The mountains will win with the snow in part because lake effect snows from the Great Lakes will make it all the way to the ridge lines. The hills and mountains will protect the valleys from much of the lake moisture, so it won't exactly be a winter wonderland down in the lowlands.

Forecasters are still watching out for storminess early next week.  It's usually stormy this time of year in the United States, and that often leads to flight disruptions during the busiest travel time of the year.

This year, it could be worse. Even a modest storm could delay or cancel some flights, leading to a ripple effect as the cancelations exacerbate staff shortages.  The canceled flights will mean some airline personnel won't be where they need to be to keep flights going.  That leads to more canceled flights and on and on it goes.

Thank goodness I'm not flying anywhere next week!

So, storminess. The initial storm will move through the Great Lakes Monday, spreading snow and strong winds through that neck of the woods.  It won't by any means be the worst storm ever in the Great Lake, but it could still disrupt flights in and out of the Midwest.

The storm will go by to the west of New England, so it will rain here in Vermont next Monday.

Then, it gets tricky.  The weather pattern is about to get a bit gummed up, and there's indications a new storm will want to get going near or off the northeastern United States coast.

If it's far enough out to sea, all we'll see in Vermont is snow showers, cold weather and chilling north winds. If it's closer, we'll need to worry about accumulating snow Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

There's still no way of knowing for sure, so we'll sit tight and watch.

, asthat lake effect mois