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| Clouds from the approaching storm moving into Vermont this afternoon. Winds with this system in parts of the state could be enough to cause scattered power outages an some tree damage here and there. |
That rather stormy weather coming in early tomorrow morning and continuing through Friday is looking a little meaner than it did this morning.
Hours ago, I sort of poo-pooed the wind with this thing, saying it will be no big deal.
Well, it sort of will be a big deal after all.
This still won't be Storm of the Century, but it probably will not be no mere Storm of the Week, either.
It looks like in some areas, winds will get strong enough to cause a few issues with trees, branches and power lines.
Wind advisories are up for Franklin County Vermont, the western slopes of the Green Mountains and pretty good swaths of the Adirondacks.
Forecasters knew there would be some pretty strong winds aloft but were skeptical of whether they'd mix down to the surface easily. Now, it looks a little more likely there will be some mixing, and stronger winds.
The most wind will be on the western and northwestern slopes of the Green Mountains. These winds could also extend toward Lake Champlain in Franklin County. Current forecasts give gusts to 50 mph in the areas with the wind advisories.
I have a sneaking suspicion that winds could even exceed that in a few gusts. Hang onto your hat, folks.
Most of the Champlain Valley and some other areas of northern Vermont could easily see gusts of 45 mph.
The most likely time for the strong winds are Friday morning, from before dawn, to early afternoon. Rainfall coming in during the day will tend to quash the winds a little bit.
This still won't be the ultimate blockbusters storm, but I'd charge devices tonight, and remove anything outside that can be blown around with strong winds.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Today's the last day of oddly pleasant, calm weather for November in Vermont.
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| The last autumn leaves of the season blow off a tree in my St. Albans, Vermont yard Wednesday. Any remaining leaves will be removed by an upcoming storm |
As expected, a strong November storm is marching through the Great Lakes, and will fling a series of fronts and weather disturbances at us through early next week.
This forecast includes some snow, but before you panic, at this point it doesn't look like it will be anything extreme.
At least around here in Vermont.. This storm has prompted a blizzard warning in northeastern South Dakota because they're expecting a few inches of snow and winds of up to 55 mph. Other areas near the western Great Lakes have various winter warnings, watches and advisories out.
For us, we're east of the main storm so we get the warm side, at least initially. Some clouds will come in today, but the action really doesn't start until tonight.
It'll get windy overnight, especially in the high elevations and in the Champlain Valley. Luckily, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says the strongest winds aloft will have a hard time mixing down to the surface, where we all live, so I'm pretty sure your roof will remain on your house. We'll just have a return to the normal November gustiness that's been lacking this month.
The main front with this storm will come through during the day Friday, with several hours of rain with it. The rain might come down fairly hard at times for brief periods, especially south of Route 2. The NWS in Burlington says southern Vermont will probably get a half inch to an inch of rain, while the north is in for a third to a half inch.
So yeah, this isn't exactly Storm of the Century. More like Storm of the Week.
But we aren't quite done yet. These big November Great Lakes storms have a habit of spinning pretty much in place while slowly dying up in Ontario or Quebec.
This sets up a series of disturbances that dive down the western flank of the dying storm, then rounding the corner down by Ohio or Indiana or some place like that and then moving northeastward through or near New England.
Once these disturbances turn the corner and head northeast, they often start to strengthen into new storm systems.
One such little storm in this train should start to get around Pennsylvania to become I guess a mini-nor'easter as it races toward Maine by late Saturday night.
For us, precipitation won't really be heavy with this. But we've entered the time of year in which most storms are at least marginal for a mix with snow. (There I said it!) This one is no exception.
Who gets snow and how much is always tricky in these borderline situations. It'll start off as rain everywhere Saturday, and then snow levels will slowly come down in elevation Saturday night.
Right now, the National Weather Service is saying snow Saturday night should accumulate mostly above elevations of 1,200 feet. Perhaps one to three inches could accumulate at and above those elevations, with spot amounts of up to half a foot at the highest summits.
Some wet snow flakes could easily mix in through the valleys. I have been surprised in the past with these sneaky little systems, so it's possible it could get cold enough for some accumulations on valley floors. That's not in the cards in the current forecast, but let's watch this and see how it plays out.
Sunday will be better with clouds, peeks of sun and temperatures in the 40s, typical November stuff.
By early next week, another disturbance looks like it wants to do roughly the same thing as Saturday's little thing. We're not sure yet how, or even if it will affect us, and if it does, how much rain and/or snow comes along with it.
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