Tis The Season: Lake Effect And Snow Showers

Snow on October leaves in St. Albans, Vermont, 2018.
We might get a bit of snow tonight, too, but if we do get
some, it won't amount to much. Typical November 

 Right on cue, now that we've turned the page to November two classic weather terms familiar to us all have resurfaced as we head toward winter: Lake effect, and snow showers.

This morning, there was s a band of lake effect rain showers coming off of Lake Ontario. It's a bit too warm for snow, at least in the valleys, so it's rain. 

Early in the season, the temperature contrast between the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes and the air is pretty big. That means lake effect plumes can really muscle their way pretty far from their sources.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, conditions look favorable today for that lake effect plume to make it all the way across the Adirondacks, then across the central Champlain Valley and to the northern Green Mountains, probably around Mount Mansfield.

So while scattered light showers could develop almost anywhere in central and northernVermont today, it looks like they'll be concentrated along that lake effect along line from Lake Ontario.  Even there, amounts will be light, perhaps a tenth of an inch with a little more in the mountains. And in high elevations, it will be cold enough for that precipitation to be snow.

Speaking of snow, it's looking like at least some low elevations in Vermont will see their first snowflakes of the season overnight tonight and Wednesday.

A disturbance with a reinforcing shot of chilly air is coming in with some showers overnight, and it looks like it will get cold enough for it to at least mix with snow even in parts of the Champlain Valley.

Don't panic, this is no blockbuster snowstorm coming in.  I, for one, am not ready for that anyway. If there is any accumulation, it will be less than an inch and confined mostly to grassy surfaces. The ground is still warm, so that will make it hard for any light snow to accumulate.  Except on the mountain peaks where a couple inches could pile up. 

Again, no biggie for November. 

Another disturbance could give us a few more snow showers on Thursday, but that won't amount to much either. 

We are in a weather pattern that is giving us a lull from any big storms. Although some small systems will probably come through, at this point it looks like we won't have any real rough weather until at least mid-month. 

A small warming trend looks like it might start this weekend, too!