I'm Shocked That So Far, Forecasters Aren't Really Backing Off Of Northeast Soaker Forecast

Rainfall forecasts with the upcoming storm remain
encouragingly consistent. Heaviest rain is 
forecast for southern Vermont, where it's needed most.
Up to two inches south, less than an inch Northeast.

 This is increasingly looking like this will be "the one."  

By that I mean for once, the forecasts have remained steady.  There's very little change to the idea that the drought-stricken Northeast is about to get a nice soaking rain. 

It won't be nearly enough to erase the drought. Some areas would need a good ten inches of rain to do that, and we're only talking about an inch of rain, two at the very most with this one. 

But unlike past hoped-for rains this autumn, this one still looks like it's going to come to pass.

Frankly his takes some getting used to, talking about a noticeable storm headed our way. That hasn't happened in ages, it seems. Not that I'm complaining.

If there's any trends in the forecast, they're minor. Things have trended a little colder to the southwest of the storm track. To the point where a winter storm watch has been issued for northeastern Pennsylvania. Up to a foot of snow could come down in some high elevations of the Poconos.

But moisture is moisture. Snow would tamp down brush and wildfires at least as well as a soaking rain, right?

Folks from New Jersey to New Hampshire will be dancing in the rain as they watch the smoke from these fires dissipate under the rainy overcast tomorrow

VERMONT FORECAST

Up here in Vermont, the forecast for this storm has trended a wee bit warmer. That means only the highest elevations will see any real snow, at least the way it looks now. 

Tail end lighter precipitation Friday night through Sunday might pile up a few inches way up high, but the period of heaviest precipitation Thursday and Thursday night would be rain, unless maybe you're way up at 3,000 feet of elevation or higher. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will hit southern Vermont, which is great, because that's where it's currently the driest. 

Best guesses through Saturday morning brings about 1.25 to nearly two inches of rain for most areas south of Route 4.

The Champlain Valley looks like they're in for maybe an inch of rain.

The Northeast Kingdom is most likely to get cheated out of some of the rain. There's a lot of east winds with this system, especially when the best moisture arrives. When there's a steady, strong east wind with a storm system, New Hampshire's White Mountains often block a lot of the moisture from reaching places like St. Johnsbury, Lyndonville, Newport and Island Pond. 

So, those areas will probably see less than an inch of rain, with a few places possibly only clocking in with a half inch. Still, that helps. 

Winds shift into the northwest over the weekend. Usually a departing storm this time of year will bring snow showers even to the valleys. It shouldn't be hard to get below freezing in late November. 

Not this time. There's very little cold air to our north to tap into, so valleys should keep going with mostly cold rain showers, while the high elevations do get a little snow.  

The precipitation - valley showers and mountain snow shower - will gradually wane during the day Sunday. 

Beyond the weekend, the forecast still looks iffy. Unfortunately, it looks like it's trending a little less stormy than earlier predictions, so we might not get as much needed extra rain and snow as I first thought. 

But who knows? I'll keep an eye on it.