Back To Reality In Vermont. Meanwhile Grave Nicaragua Danger From New Hurricane

Cloudy, windy November skies over St. Albans, Vermont
a couple years ago. We're in the thick of overcast stick
season now and we'll see a lot of that in the coming days.

We've certainly gotten back to reality here in Vermont after last week's glorious, sunny record November warmth. 

The past few days have been cloudy and rather chilly, at least comparatively speaking. And it's about to get colder.  And more windy. It IS November in Vermont, after all. You really need to expect this. Sorry.

As I write this mid-morning Sunday, the wind is just beginning to blow outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont.  November is usually quite a windy month, and today will help cement that reputation.

Gusts will go past 40 mph in many locations, especially in the Champlain Valley. There might be a little light precipitation, mostly rain, but maybe some mix in the mountains and Northeast Kingdom.  But the bulk of the rain will hold off until later this afternoon.

It's not just us that are getting some good wind gusts.  There have been a lot of wind warnings and advisories from coast to coast the past few days. 

Today a huge area around the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee valleys are under wind advisories or high wind warnings. 

Things will be particularly bad along Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York and Ontario. Winds gusting past 60 mph will shove already high lake water onto west and south facing shores in New York and Ontario, which is sure to set off flooding and a lot of erosion.

Storm surges on the eastern end of Lake Erie are expected to be as high as seven feet, and wave heights on the lake could reach 25 feet. This will probably be among the worst storms on record for that lake. 

Again, this is pretty typical of November, the exceptional power of the Lake Erie storm notwithstanding. It's a stormy month, and the Great Lakes are a particular epicenter for November tempests.  I bring this up every year, but I have to mention the real life storm and shipwreck in the song "The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald" happened in mid-November in the Great Lakes. 

Most of these November storms have cold fronts that bring in increasingly heavy tastes of winter air and this will be no exception. 

Temperatures will decline Monday through Wednesday, and by then, high temperatures will only reach the 20s. It'll be the coldest day since around the first of March.  There won't be much snow with this, but a few inches worth of snow showers could pile up in the mountains.

It's still a little early for hard core winter, so that type of cold won't last. Highs will be in the near seasonal low to mid 40s by the end of the week.  

Again, none of this is odd for Vermont, but it does come as a slap in the face after last week.

HURRICANE IOTA

What I described above is absolutely trivial compared to what is going on, and what is about to go down in Nicaragua and Honduras.  

Satellite view of Hurricane Iota quickly ramping
up east of Nicaragua this morning. It poses a 
terrible threat to that nation by tomorrow.

Earlier this month, those two nations were hit by Category 4 Hurricane Eta, with devastating results. High winds and especially devastating floods killed dozens and left towns and rural areas in ruins.

It's bad enough to be hit by a storm like that.  It's inconceivable to be hit by a second storm of similar strength a couple weeks later.

But that appears to be in the cards.

Hurricane Iota is strengthening explosively in the western Caribbean Sea.

It went from not really a big deal Saturday morning to a monster with sustained winds of 90 mph this morning. It continues to power up massively and is forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph by Monday.

At that point, Hurricane Iota will be approaching Nicaragua and Honduras in roughly the same spot Eta hit  The region is incredibly vulnerable because of the devastation from Eta, so this really looks like a worse case scenario . 

If I'm dreading this from my safe home in Vermont, imagine how people in Nicaragua and Honduras feel. 

Hurricane Eta: Zombie Version In U.S.? Meanwhile More On Incoming Vermont Warmth

Evacuations in Nicaragua due to Hurricane Eta. Photo
via BBC

Hurricane Eta lurked just offshore around Nicaragua for much of the early part of Tuesday, smashing the nation with destructive winds and torrential rains causing intense rains. 

Eta then moved inland and its winds are rapidly diminishing as Central American mountains destroy the now former hurricane's circulation.  

But those torrential rains are continuing, and I definitely fear for what people are going through in Nicaragua and Honduras with the flooding. 

It will take awhile - perhaps days -  for the news of exactly what is happening in the disaster zone, but what we find out will surely be grim. There is no doubt epic flash flooding and mudslides going on.  The destructive winds that hit the coast of Nicaragua will almost be an afterthought compared to this. 

So, we'll keep an eye on this. 

Plus, we have to keep an eye on the actual storm.   Usually, when a hurricane plows into Central America, it dies a quick death in the mountains and that's that.   Every once in a while, some remains of such a storm emerge into the Pacific Ocean to create a new tropical storm or hurricane. 

Or, somewhat more rarely and occasionally, the pitiful remains of a Central American hurricane somehow get kicked back out to the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico to create more mischief. 

That appears to be what will likely happen with former Hurricane Eta.  As the National Hurricane Center forecasts, the low level circulation of Eta should be destroyed within a day or two.  But its upper level spin is forecast to come back out into the far western Caribbean Sea around Friday.

This will create what I might call a zombie version of Eta.  The NHC thinks it will redevelop into a tropical storm and become a possible threat to Cuba and Florida.

Nobody thinks Zombie Eta will become an extreme  Category 4 hurricane as it was when it tortured Nicaragua this week.  

But this is 2020, so if anything can go wrong, it will.  Which makes me say "go figure" with the forecast for Zombie Eta. I imagine if a revived Eta affects Florida early next week, its primary threat would be heavy rains.  

South Florida had a sopping wet October, so they're especially flood prone right now.  If Eta arrives, that could trigger some serious flooding.  That's not an official forecast, at least not yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

VERMONT WARMTH

As promised for days now, we're about to enter an odd (for November) warm spell.  Odd mostly because of how long it's expected to last. 

You'll notice the increasing warmth today, but it won't really hit until tomorrow.  If you have a little snow on the ground, it will be gone by sunset today.  If you have a lot of snow on the ground - I'm talking to you western slopes of the Green Mountains boys and girls - it might take a couple or few days, but it will go.

Today, high temperatures will be in the 40s to near 50 in the warm spots, especially south and west of Interstate 89.  Then we get a spell starting tomorrow and lasting through at least Tuesday in which afternoon highs in Vermont reach the 60s in many areas. (Friday might be briefly a little cooler, but not by much). 

Another oddity will be the lack of precipitation.  It's possible a couple of weak, stalled out fronts north of us could spread a few sprinkles our way. But don't expect anything major until at least Tuesday.

Also, there will be at least some sunshine almost every day through Tuesday.  It probably won't be crystal clear most of the time. However, such a long stretch of days with at least a chance of seeing some some in November is rare.  This is normally the gloomiest month of the year. 

There's still a chance some record highs might fall.  There was a smattering of record highs in the Midwest and northern Plains yesterday, and that state of affairs looks like it wants to spread this way by the weekend. 

For those of you who prefer winter, relax.  It's only November. You have plenty of time coming up to enjoy the snow.

Vote Today In Good Weather; Vermont Snow; Horrible Hurricane Eta

You can't use weather as an excuse not to vote.
Weather across the nation is very quiet today. If you
haven't already voted, go out and do it! 

 It's voting day in America. If you haven't voted yet, get your butt out there and do it! We always say it's important, and it is. Especially this year, though. 

I don't want to hear any weather excuses for not voting either.  Yes, here in Vermont, we have some of the "worst" weather in the United States right now. 

That's not saying much. Sure it snowed last night (more on that in a bit), and it's chilly out there, but the roads have pretty much cleared out and you're a wimp if you can't bear to get out and do your civic duty just because it's slightly nippy.

Nationwide, you can't ask for better voting weather.  The extremes of last week are gone, and the weather for most of the United States today is gloriously boring. 

There are no big storms.  Temperatures in most places are moderate. The only weather I'm seeing anywhere is rainy conditions in the Pacific Northwest.  Yeah, breaking news. Rain in Seattle. They can deal with it. 

An air quality advisory is still up in central California and strong winds are possible in northern Montana. That's it.  Extremely quiet weather for November in the United States.

Go. Vote. Now. 

VERMONT SNOW

It's a bit of a winter wonderland out side my St. Albans, Vermont house this morning. We had a blizzardish spell last night, and now the ground is covered by two inches of snow.  Nothing extreme for early November, really, but it's a reminder that winter is on its way. 

Two inches of snow on my deck in St. Albans, Vermont this
morning.  Up to a foot of new snow was reported in 
the Green Mountains. 

As expected, there were some impressive snow totals near the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  

A solid foot of snow accumulated at a 1,200 foot elevation near Moretown. At an elevation of 1,550 feet a spot near Smuggler's Notch was buried in 11 inches of new powder.  Stowe had 10 inches. Morrisville reported eight inches. East Enosburg clocked in at 7.5 inches. Hyde Park had seven inches. Calais and Woodbury reported six inches. 

It's basically over, aside from a few lingering snow showers.  A strong November Indian Summer is still on its way, so we'll have several days of warm, dry weather Thursday through the weekend. (Tomorrow will be a transition day: A cold start with a mild, thawing afternoon).  By the weekend, we can expect near record highs in the 60s to near 70. 

Winter hasn't fully grasped us yet.

HORRIBLE HURRICANE ETA

Now we have some terrible weather news: 

Extremely powerful Hurricane Eta was about to make landfall in Nicaragua as of this mid-morning writing.  Eta blew up explosively Monday to become a borderline Category 4/5 storm.  As of mid-morning, Hurricane Eta had top sustained winds of 145 mph. 

This means it's the most powerful hurricane of the 2020 season.  One remarkable thing is how late in the season this is happening.  Late season tropical storms tend to be somewhat weaker and short-lived than those at the peak of the season.  

It turns out Hurricane Eta is the third strongest November hurricane on record for the Atlantic basin. 

Hurricane Eta is also moving very slowly. Which means that on top of the devastating winds and catastrophic storm surges, the flash flooding from two to three feet of rain in mountainous Nicaragua and Honduras are going to be extreme and highly deadly. 

There will be a lot of bad news coming out of Nicaragua and Honduras over the next few days. 

Vermont Snow Update; Hurricane Eta; Typhoon Goni

Forecast continue to call for six or more inches of
snow (yellow and orange shading) in northern
Vermont and the Adirondacks of New York.
Even the Champlain Valley will get some
accumulating snow out of thisl

 We'll start with the local this morning: And in Vermont, that means snow.

It was not snowing in all of Vermont as of early this morning, but snow showers were blossoming and spreading, especially away from Lake Champlain. 

This first round of snow showers should continue through this morning, but wane as the day goes on.  But there's more to come after that. More in a minute.

A series of cold fronts has brought much colder air in. Another disturbance in the northwest air flow is what's causing new snow showers to develop early this morning.    

Snow did start to fall in both Burlington and St. Albans around 6 a.m. and I expect it to continue for a few hours  The northern Champlain Valley should see at least some light accumulation. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dusting to as much as two inches, especially north of Burlington with this initial burst of snow. There might be slick spots here and there on the roads. 

Get inland from the lake this morning, though, near the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and you'll likely get enough snow to mess up the roads, so be careful out there this Monday morning 

Snow showers will wane this afternoon, but strong northwest winds will keep things wintry all day.  Some of us will never even get above freezing this afternoon.  The Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley banana belts will manage to get to the mid-30s. There might be a spot upper 30s reading down below White River Junction.

The wind is strong enough to prompt a wind advisory east of the Greens in Orange and Windsor counties

Then a second, stronger disturbance comes in tonight in that cold, northwest flow.  Forecasts call for a lot of snow showers tonight, especially along the western slopes and the summits. 

The snow could be locally heavy at times overnight and Tuesday morning in a few spots.  Even the Champlain Valley should get an inch or two.  The far northern Champlain Valley away from the immediate lakeshore should get a good three or four inches of snow.  

Storm totals in much of central Vermont, again, especially in the Green Mountains and parts of the Northeast Kingdom, should range in the four to nine inch range.  Some favored summits still look like they'll get over a foot.

For those of you working or going out to vote tomorrow, look for some slick roads Tuesday morning.  If you haven't voted yet, definitely do so on Tuesday, but if possible, wait until later in the morning or afternoon when the roads will be better. 

As mentioned last night, we're in for a very sharp warm up to balmy readings for November by the second half of the week. Say goodbye to any new snow we do get.

HURRICANE ETA

The ever-producing Atlantic hurricane season is popped out another one: Hurricane Eta. It's in the western Caribbean, having formed as a tropical storm a couple days ago and now up to hurricane status. 

It's heading west toward Nicaragua and Honduras, and could become a major hurricane. This also has the seeds of a major disaster.  Hurricane Eta is moving slowly, and will plow into the mountainous terrain of Central America when it makes landfall.

This combination of torrential rains totaling as much as 30 inches from Eta and steep terrain set the stage for a terrible flash flood disaster, especially in Nicaragua. 

Some are comparing this storm to Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which unleashed immense mud slides in Honduras and Nicaragua, with a terrible death toll estimated at 11,000 people.  Let's hope this one isn't nearly as bad as Mitch. 

TYPHOON GONI

Over the weekend, Typhoon Goni, with estimated top winds of 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, made landfall on the island Catanduanes in the Philippines. This is believed to be the highest winds on record for the world for a landfalling tropical system.

(Typhoons are hurricanes in the western Pacific Ocean).

There have been other typhoons or hurricanes that were as strong or even a little stronger, but none of them were at that strength at landfall. 

There is some dispute over the wind estimate with Goni, so I don't think anyone will ever be sure winds were that strong on Catanduanes.

Nevertheless, the winds with Goni were extreme and there is massive damage in parts of the Philippines. 

Unfortunately, there is a disturbing upward trend in the number of mega-typhoons in the western Pacific. This might be another risk from climate change. Scientists think these super strong typhoons will continue to become more common. 

strongest tropical system

Typhoon Goni made landfall near Bato, Catanduanes Island, Philippine