The Eclipse Will Make Its Own Weather In Vermont And Elsewhere

 They tell me it's sensory overload when a total eclipse of the sun arrives, like it will on Monday.

Monday's eclipse path through Vermont. Expect big
changes in the weather and nature during the 
event, no matter what sky conditions are like at the start.

It's looking like Vermont will have a partly obscured view of the eclipse. High thin clouds will be increasing at the time of the event. We'll still be able to see it. The spectacle will just be filtered by the high clouds somewhat. 

It's a better scenario than the low, thick clouds we had with the storm Thursday and Friday. 

With at least some sunshine still in the forecast, you'll also notice how the eclipse will make its own weather. 

Temperatures

Forecast highs Monday afternoon are in the low to mid 50s.  I'm not sure whether meteorologists have factored the eclipse into that prediction. But I strongly suspect afternoon highs Monday will be a little cooler than they would have been without the eclipse.

The eclipse hits Vermont right around 3:30 in the afternoon.  Usually at that hour, we're approaching the high temperature for the day. But with dimming, then disappearing sunlight, the journey to a high temperatures will be interrupted. 

The chill during the eclipse will be noticeable for sure. As the Washington Post explains, a dry environment will get about 8 to 14 degrees cooler during the eclipse while readings will only drop by 5 to 10 degrees.

The air is forecast to be quite dry over Vermont during the eclipse, so there could be quite a cool down.  A wild card is for places that might still have a snow cover.  Light winds are are also in the forecast for Vermont eclipse time. 

 I wonder if places that still have a snow cover might see the bottom drop out of the temperature. It could be akin to those clear, cold winter evenings when the temperature crashes big time when the sun sets.  It'll be a fun experiment to see.

For fun you ought to bring a thermometer out. Leave it in the shade, as that will measure the ambient air. Note the temperature as the eclipse starts, and see how it changes as things gradually go dark, then light again. 

The temperature might actually reach its minimum a short time after the eclipse is over.  It takes time for the sun to start heating the atmosphere again. 

Wind

Like I mentioned earlier, we're not expecting much in the way of breezes on eclipse day. But this time of year, updrafts created by the sun mix the air, which does create some wind even if there's no storm nearby to generate anything strong. 

You'll probably notice some light breezes before the eclipse starts. Chances are, they'll diminish during the eclipse. That's because the sun won't be there at the peak to generate those updrafts.

Wind direction might change, too.  I'm curious to see what happens at my house in St. Albans. During the day, winds more often than not come out the west. Often at night, the breezes shift to more easterly as cool air drains off the Green Mountains into the Champlain Valley. 

Will this wind shift happen during Monday's eclipse?  Inquiring minds like mine want to find out. 

Showers and Clouds

Eclipses can help squelch showers and thunderstorms, too. That won't be a factor in Vermont, as instability showers are not in the forecast for Monday. 

It might be fascinating to watch Texas. Severe thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday for part of the eclipse path down there. Severe storms usually on the sun heating the lower atmosphere. That encourages the updrafts that help towering thunderstorm clouds grow.

That's why, in the summer, thunderstorms usually hit in the late afternoon and evening. That's when the clouds have taken the most advantage of the sun's heat. Those thunderstorms usually diminish after sunset. 

As the sun disappears in the eclipse, will wannabe thunderstorm clouds shrivel like they do during a typical sunset? And will they re-form after the eclipse is over? Chances are they will, as other factors in the atmosphere will encourage the Texas storms. 

Nature And Pets

Animals will surely be confused by this event. 

This time of year, robins around my house seem to break into happy song as dawn breaks and issue alarm calls when the sun is setting. 

Will I hear those alarm calls when the eclipse starts? Will the happy songs start once it's over?  Pay attention if you can to what happens with nature and animals around you during this event. 

As people get louder, nature gets quieter during an eclipse. 

Also, it might be interesting to see how your pets and other domesticated animals behave.  Will they act like they do at sunset? Or get confused and agitated?

Your dog will be fine, by the way.  Unless you take them into a crowd where they might get nervous or get themselves into trouble.

I'm lucky enough to live right in the middle of the path of totality. I know my dog will be fine. Jackson will be happy as long as he gets to participate with us. He'll be out on the deck with my husband and me enjoying the spectacle. 

There's no need to put eclipse glasses on your pets. Unlike humans, they're smart enough to never look at the sun, and they won't start doing so during the eclipse. 

People

This isn't weather related, but as you can imagine, total eclipses generate big feelings. Of course, during an eclipse we know what's going on, we know it's not dangerous (unless you're dumb enough to look directly at the sun without special glasses) and with the exception of certain eccentric politicians, an eclipse is not any kind of omen to worry about. 

Still, even the most calm, rational people get overwhelmed by eclipses. Embrace the emotions. Your heart might race, you might be brought to tears, or be lost in the thrill of it, or you might have other strong emotions or none of the above. 

Just be you and embrace the spectacle.  

Tropical Start To Autumn And After Series Of Lame Tropical Storms, But Now One To Watch?

Photo taken just as astronomical autumn arrived in 
St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday afternoon.  Hints of
color in the trees, but high humidity and a tropical 
shower in the distance felt surely unseasonable.

You almost surely missed it, but there's been a good handful of tropical storms lately. It's another busy season.  

Luckily, the reason why you haven't heard of them is because the tropical storms have all been wimpy and haven't hit anything.  It's a welcome reprieve from another destructive hurricane season. That's not to say there won't be more trouble later this autumn. More on that in a minute. 

In the past week or so, Tropical Storm Odette sideswiped Newfoundland and its remnants are still meandering in the North Atlantic. Odette might briefly turn into a zombie tropical storm as it temporarily heads south into warmer water, but that won't last long.

Tropical Storms Peter and Rose also got going in the open Atlantic over the past week but strong upper level winds tore them apart. They were headed north toward oblivion anyway, so if the strong high level winds didn't kill them, cold northern waters would have eventually done the trick. 

Next up is Sam.  It's in the process of organizing itself and should be officially declared Tropical Storm Sam later today.  

Unlike the last few storms, wannabe Sam looks like it will be a powerhouse. The National Hurricane  Center forecasts Sam to be a major hurricane with top winds of 115 mph by Tuesday. 

At this point, wannabe Sam is expected to be northeast of the Leeward Islands, way out over the Atlantic Ocean. 

Most of the computer models at the moment anyway want eventually to re-curve Sam northward into the open Atlantic, well east of the U.S. Seaboard. That would be the ideal way to go. 

But not all those computer models are on board with those scenarios.  So this will be the first tropical storm or hurricane for people in the United States to really want to watch since Nicholas back on September 13-14.  

Even if Sam does become a threat to the United States, that won't happen for quite awhile.  It would take until the very end of this month or the first of October for Sam to become a real worry, if it does at all.

Of course, even if Sam avoids us, hurricane season ain't over.  It's been busy, and there's still a lot of potential for real tropical trouble in October.

There's lots of examples running through both distant and past history. Hurricane Hazel in 1954, which killed about 500 people in Haiti before crashing into the Carolinas as a Category 4 hurricane. It moved northwestward all the way to Ontario, Canada killing about 90 people in the U.S. and 80 people in and near Toronto. (Hazel managed to produce gusts to 70 mph in Burlington)

More recently, Hurricane Wilma in October, 2005 was a Category 5 storm over open waters in the northwest Caribbean. It "weakened" to a still nasty Category 3 with 120 miles winds when it eventually whipped through Florida. 

Hurricane Sandy, though technically not a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey in late October, 2012 was arguably that state's worst weather disaster on record. 

Hurricane Michael came ashore in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 storm in 2018 unleashing near total destruction in and near Mexico Beach, Florida. 

So October  an be rough.  We'll see if that happens this year. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, astronomical autumn arrived Wednesday afternoon amid tropical-like humidity. It didn't really feel like autumn, did it?

It remains humid and warm today, but it IS autumn, so changes are afoot. A slow moving, wet cold front that's been lurking to our west will finally, slowly lumber through Vermont Friday.

It'll have a decent, but not extreme slug of rain with it.  We need the rain at this point, especially north, so that will be a good thing.

After that, we're down into average late September weather, with highs mostly in the 60s as we head into next week.